直驱技术冲击：永磁同步直驱电机（如应用于晶圆搬运机器人）凭借零回差优势，在高精度场景逐步替 代谐波减速器；行星滚柱丝杠可能抢占人形机器人关节市场，对传统减速机形成技术颠覆。材料技术变 革风险：若国外企业在碳纤维复合材料齿轮、磁齿轮等领域实现量产突破，可能重构行业竞争格局，国 内企业若未能及时跟进，将面临市场份额流失风险市场竞争与需求波动风险同质化竞争激烈：国内 RV 减速器企业超 50 家，产品参数高度相似，价格较进口产品低 40%-50%，但毛利率压缩至25%-30%（国 际龙头达45%以上）。同时价格战竞争激烈，导致行业利润空间被严重挤压下游行业面临一定的周期性 波动：工业移动机器人行业虽然整体呈上升趋势，但也面临一定的周期性风险；人形机器人商业化能否 达到预期也影响对上游电机及减速机产品的需求。 供应链与成本风险 关键原材料对外依存度高：国内90%以上的高强度齿轮钢（如SAE4340、25MnCr5）依赖进口，原材料 价格波动直接影响成本，机器人专用 P4 级轴承（用于谐波减速器柔轮支撑）、24 位绝对值编码器国产 化率不足 20%，主要依赖 NSK、海德汉等国际品牌，供应链稳定性存在隐患。精密加工设备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the stock market can be summarized as "navigating through storms to find gold," highlighting the interplay of price volatility, capital competition, value selection, and the accumulation of real value in the capital market [1][16]. Policy Winds - The 2024 Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized "activating the capital market," leading to a 48% surge in A-share trading volume the following day [5]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision caused a 3.2% volatility spike in Nasdaq futures within one minute, which is 20 times the usual volatility [5]. Emotional Winds - When the investor sentiment index (CISS) exceeds 75, the probability of a decline in the next three months reaches 68% [5]. - The emergence of new funds, referred to as "daylight funds," has an 82% probability of experiencing a drawdown exceeding 15% within six months [5]. Black Swan Events - The Luckin Coffee fraud incident resulted in a loss of 1.5 trillion yuan in market value for Chinese concept stocks in a single day [5]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict led to a 22% drop in the European STOXX 50 index over ten days [5]. Liquidity Waves - In 2020, global central banks injected $23 trillion, resulting in a 65% increase in the MSCI global index over two years [8]. - In 2024, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction of $1.5 trillion coincided with over $80 billion in foreign capital outflows from emerging markets [8]. Financial Screening - A portfolio with a high return on equity (ROE) exceeding 20% achieved a cumulative return of 487% over ten years, significantly outperforming the overall A-share market's 136% [11]. - Companies with cash flow coverage ratios above 1.5 have a 60% lower probability of default compared to the industry average [11]. Industry Gold Mining - The energy density of power batteries exceeding 300 Wh/kg has led to an average three-year stock price increase of 320% for related companies [11]. - Innovative pharmaceutical companies entering clinical phase III see a reduction in market value volatility to 25% [11]. Timing the Cycle - Entering the market when the price-to-earnings ratio is below the historical 30th percentile has a 65% probability of yielding over 200% returns in five years [11]. - When the copper-to-gold ratio falls below 0.2, there is an over 80% probability that commodities will outperform stock indices in the following 12 months [11]. Compounding Alchemy - Gree Electric's stock has increased over 380 times since its listing 26 years ago, with an annualized return of 23.7% [14]. - Regular monthly investments in the CSI 300 index over 20 years have a 97% probability of achieving positive returns, averaging 8.4% annually [14]. Institutional Gold Content - The proportion of public funds holding A-share circulating market value has risen from 7% to 12%, indicating an ongoing enhancement of pricing power [14].

行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 08 日 复古魅力下的新潮流：撕拉片与 "人生四格" 看好 ——社会服务行业周报（6.2-6.6） 相关研究 《音乐节经济与民俗 IP 驱动假期客流增长 ——社会服务行业周报（05.19-05.23）》 2025/05/25 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨光 A0230524100004 yangguang@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 (8621)23297818× yangguang@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 近日撕拉片突然翻红，价格暴涨，稀缺营销+明星效应+复古仪式感让它成为 摄影界新宠。作为撕拉片生产的主力大户，宝丽来和富士两家公司的撕拉片相 纸均已停产。据国际影像材料协会 2025 年 Q1 报告，全球撕拉片相纸库存总 量已不足 50 万盒。供需关系的急剧失衡，直接导致了撕拉片 ...

美联储理事库克：经济处于"稳固状态"，尽管面临贸易政策风险，预期今年经济增长将放缓。 ...

来源：弈赫市场咨询 北京弈赫国际信息咨询有限公司是一家业务覆盖全球的利基市场信息咨询公司，研究涉及了21个主要行业和1200个利基市场，覆盖了70多个国 家，一直致力于产出专业严谨的行业趋势分析，数据洞察，市场研究和解决方案。百度搜索yiheconsult或者弈赫咨询，访问官网获得免费报告样 本。 北京弈赫市场咨询最近发布了关于齐纳二极管2025市场的深度分析报告。此报告针对全球及中国市场做了全面的调研和解析，旨在为相关行业的投资者、研 究人员及政策制定者提供重要的决策支持。报告基于多年行业跟踪，具备高度的专业性和权威性，可根据客户需求进行定制化服务。申请获得免费样本的需 求欢迎随时提出。 此外，政策风险也是不可忽视的因素。国际贸易政策的不确定性可能会对跨国公司的运营造成影响，尤其是在关税和贸易限制方面。因此，企业在制定战略 时，需充分考虑各种潜在风险，合理配置资源，以应对不确定性带来的挑战。 本报告的主要受众包括电子元件制造商、半导体行业投资者、科研机构、政策制定单位以及任何对齐纳二极管市场抱有兴趣的专业人士。这些受众在各自的 领域中需要最新的市场动态、技术发展趋势及竞争格局的清晰视图，以便制定战略。通过阅 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen serves as an important indicator of both the Japanese economy and global economic trends, experiencing a significant decline recently after a period of appreciation [1] - On May 12, the yen depreciated sharply against the dollar, reaching around 148.00, with a daily high of 148.59, marking the highest level since April 3 [1] - The decline in the yen's value is attributed to reduced investor risk aversion following a 90-day tariff reduction agreement between China and the U.S., which has improved global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - In April, the yen was a favored target for institutional investors, with net long positions increasing by 58,000 contracts to a historical high of 179,000 contracts [2] - The yen appreciated over 3% since the beginning of April, reflecting strong demand from investors [2][3] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar has been on an upward trend for three consecutive weeks in April, with a total appreciation exceeding 3% [3] Group 3 - The Japanese economy remains fundamentally strong, and the gradual tightening of monetary policy and potential interest rate hikes could support further appreciation of the yen [3] - Current exchange rates for the yen against the dollar are considered undervalued, with expectations for a stronger performance in the near future [3] - The outcome of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations will significantly impact the yen's value, with successful agreements likely to bolster the yen, while failures could lead to depreciation [3]

韩国称将密切关注金融和外汇市场的波动。 贸易谈判和政策风险带来很多不确定性。 ...

公开资料显示，斯凯奇由格林伯格（Greenberg）于1992年创立，总部位于加州曼哈顿海滩，最初在加州销售伐木靴，后来拓展成人和儿童运动鞋业务。此 后，斯凯奇进军跑步、高尔夫和足球等多个运动类别，其舒适款式的鞋类价格低于耐克和阿迪达斯等竞争对手。斯凯奇目前是全球最大的由创始人领导的消 费品公司之一。格林伯格持有价值11亿美元的斯凯奇股份。 5月5日，斯凯奇发布公告宣布，已与投资公司3G资本（3G Capital）达成收购协议。3G资本将以每股63美元收购斯凯奇全部流通股，较斯凯奇过去15天成交 量加权平均股价溢价30%。待收购完成后，3G资本预计将持有新成立公司（New LLC）约80%的股权，从而实现对斯凯奇的控股。3G资本是汉堡王母公司 RBI的控股股东，此次交易已获斯凯奇董事会批准，预计将于2025年第三季度完成。交易完成后，斯凯奇将成为一家私人控股公司。 获3G资本溢价收购 | | 斯凯奇[SKX] 2025-05-07 04:00 | | | 5PMA = | | 10PMA = 20PMA = 30PMA = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

三星电子：代工厂高管表示，地缘政治和政策风险可能在下半年加剧，与手机和个人电脑市场相关的需 求可能仍然疲软。 ...

财务指标解读 营收增长显著，业务拓展见成效 2024年，威奥股份实现营业收入1,527,834,472.45元，较上年同期的1,179,596,328.23元上涨29.52%。公 司表示，这主要得益于轨道交通设备及其延伸产业相关订单增加，以及富氧健康舱业务的持续增长。从 业务板块来看，动车组车辆配套产品收入679,065,550.07元，同比增长44.90%；检修业务收入 226,749,613.48元，增长48.50%；富氧健康舱产品收入57,833,071.28元，增长14.06%。这些数据表明公 司在主营业务上的市场拓展取得了一定成效。 净利润大幅下滑，需关注盈利持续性 归属于上市公司股东的净利润为55,375,500.17元，较上年同期的256,436,321.06元下降78.41%。公司解 释称，主要系上年同期收购唐山汽车及其子公司，产生较大营业外收入所致。若剔除这一非经常性因 素，公司的盈利能力变化更值得关注。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为47,106,328.62元，上年同期为 -21,803,428.73元，这表明公司核心业务的盈利能力有所提升，但仍需关注盈利的持续性。 费用增长各有因，成本控制 ...