Core Viewpoint - In the absence of support from the Bank of Japan, the yield curve of Japanese government bonds may continue to steepen, influenced by recent adverse factors and upcoming fiscal measures [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The ruling coalition in Japan may announce fiscal measures, such as cost-of-living subsidies, before the July Senate elections, potentially worsening Japan's fiscal situation [1] - Recent statements from Japanese life insurance companies indicate plans to reduce their holdings of Japanese government bonds, contributing to the steepening yield curve [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The clarity of Japan's fiscal policy trajectory and the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing plans will be crucial for stabilizing the long-term yield curve in the coming weeks [1]

金十数据5月23日讯，星展集团研究位外汇和信贷策略师Chang Wei Liang说，目前日本超长期国债收益 率的飙升，应该会支持增加日本国债的配置。日本30年期国债收益率已从2025年初的2.30%左右升至 3.20%。除非日本的长期通胀预期在5个月内上升1%，否则目前超长期日本国债收益率的飙升标志着日 本国债市场平均实际利率的大幅上升。这也应会鼓励日本资产管理公司的资金回流，并进一步支撑日元 的复苏。 日本超长债券收益率飙升应会支持增加日本国债配置 ...

Group 1 - Japan's largest business lobbying group reports that member companies' employees have secured over 5% salary increases for two consecutive years, indicating a sustained upward trend in wages amid a tightening labor market [1][4] - The average salary increase for 620,000 employees from 97 major companies in Japan is reported at 5.38%, slightly lower than last year's 5.58%, but significantly higher than the 20-year average increase of approximately 2.3% [1][4] - 11 out of 17 industries in Japan have seen salary increases higher than last year, with transportation, electronics, and chemicals leading the way, while traditional manufacturing sectors like automotive and steel have experienced more moderate increases [4][6] Group 2 - Over 50% of Japanese companies are facing severe regular employee shortages, contributing to the upward pressure on wages [6] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 3.4%, marking a two-year high, as inflation has remained at or above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three consecutive years [6] - The recent rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields, particularly the 40-year bond reaching 3.675%, is constraining the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - Predictability is crucial for the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing program, according to committee member Akira Noguchi [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the importance of a predictable approach in its government bond purchasing strategy [1]

·丹斯克银行：推迟美联储降息预期 ·花旗：澳储行比预期更鸽派 ·日债收益率跳涨 20年期国债标售结果不佳 【机构分析】 ·瑞银：美联储今年或在9月开始降息 ·荷兰国际集团：英国脱欧后关系的重启可能会给英镑带来温和支撑 ·Sucden Financial：英欧关系改善推动英镑兑美元走高 ·荷兰国际集团分析师克里斯·特纳表示，英国脱欧后重启英欧关系的协议不会改变英镑的游戏规则，但 可能会在今年夏天对英镑起到温和的支撑作用。本周更重要的将是周三的英国通胀数据，以及服务业指 数是否终于开始下降。 ·Sucden Financial研究负责人Daria Efanova在评论中说，英镑兑美元的上升轨迹得益于英国与欧盟关系的 改善。英国和欧盟周一签署了一项协议，以促进贸易和加强安全合作。此外，她表示，技术分析显示英 镑兑美元的位置强劲，该货币对将保持在关键移动平均线上方。英镑兑美元近期前景似乎是积极的，有 可能进一步上涨至1.3400。不过，市场参与者仍对即将公布的英国CPI数据及其对英国央行政策预期的 影响保持警惕。 ·花旗表示，澳储行的态度比预期更为温和。经济增长（尤其是家庭消费）面临的下行风险超出了预 期，声明和新闻 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：政府应该确保有财政缓冲，以应对危机；需要维持市场对日本国债的信心。 ...

日本首相石破茂：日本的财政状况比希腊差，反对用日本国债为减税提供资金。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：政府需维护市场对日本国债的信任。 ...

日本5年期国债收益率上行9个基点至1%，10年期国债收益率上行8个基点至1.465%。 韩国首尔综指小幅低开0.2%。 日经225指数盘初涨逾2%。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：日本央行对日本国债购买的中期评估显示，预计在2026年4月之后将制定相关 计划。 ...