证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 量化周报 市场未来有望继续上行 市场未来有望继续上行。本周（ 6.30-7.4），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周 收涨 1.40%。在此背景下，基础化工、电力设备及新能源确认日线级别上 涨。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由 于上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创 业板指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上 涨，因此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，市场未来有望 继续上行。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成 指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨 中，且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开 始，而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，A 股景气指数为 21.59，相 比 2023 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of recovery with a stable increase in the road logistics price index, driven by improved market demand and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Index Trends - As of June 2025, the China Road Logistics Price Index stands at 105.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1]. - The whole vehicle index, primarily driven by bulk commodities and regional transport, is at 105.7 points, up 0.09% from May and 3.22% year-on-year [1]. - The less-than-truckload (LTL) indices show mixed results, with the light cargo index at 102.6 points (down 0.04% from May, up 1.4% year-on-year) and the heavy cargo index at 105.7 points (up 0.08% from May, up 3.33% year-on-year) [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand for bulk commodities remains stable, contributing to a steady increase in both whole vehicle and heavy cargo price indices [2]. - E-commerce activities, particularly during holiday promotions, have significantly boosted light cargo market performance, leading to a narrower decline in the light cargo index [2]. - The logistics prosperity index for June is reported at 50.8%, indicating a continuous expansion in the logistics sector for four consecutive months [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of policy measures is expected to support steady domestic market demand and positive production expectations [3]. - Seasonal fluctuations are anticipated in the third quarter, influenced by factors such as summer travel peaks and adverse weather conditions [3].

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's logistics prosperity index rose to 50.8%, indicating continued expansion for the fourth consecutive month this year [1][2] Group 1: Logistics Index and Key Indicators - The logistics prosperity index increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone [1] - Key indicators such as business volume index, new orders index, inventory turnover index, capital turnover rate index, fixed asset investment completion index, employment index, and business activity expectation index are all in the expansion zone [1] - The business volume index for June was also reported at 50.8%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Various logistics sectors, including road transport, rail transport, air transport, and postal express, are showing positive performance with business volume indices in the prosperity zone [1] - The postal express and air transport sectors reported business volume indices of 69.3% and 52%, respectively, driven by online shopping and seasonal demand for fresh cold chain products [1] - Seasonal characteristics are evident in logistics development, with strong demand for coal transportation and increased activity in tourism, e-commerce, and outdoor products during the summer peak [2] Group 3: Recommendations and Market Dynamics - Companies are advised to adapt to new conditions and seasonal characteristics to guide logistics demand effectively [2] - There is a need to convert new order volumes into actual business growth and to address "involution" competition within the industry [2] - Continuous efforts are required to optimize market order amidst the evolving logistics landscape [2]

中国物流与采购联合会发布的2025年6月份中国物流景气指数为50.8%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。中国 物流与采购联合会副会长何辉认为，6月份指数回升，继续保持扩张态势，今年以来连续4个月处在扩张 区间，同时行业物流发展呈现一定的季节性特征。后期来看，随着供应链上下游需求有序衔接，市场预 期趋好趋稳，业务活动预期指数连续4个月在55%以上高景气区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is experiencing a positive trend with an increase in the logistics business volume and an improvement in the overall economic climate, as indicated by the logistics prosperity index reaching 50.8% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Industry Performance - The logistics prosperity index for June stands at 50.8%, indicating expansion, with the total business volume index remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months since 2025 [1] - The central and western regions of China have business volume indices that exceed the national average [1] Sector Analysis - Various sectors including road transport, rail transport, air transport, and postal express services are all in the expansion zone, with the postal express and air transport indices at 69.3% and 52% respectively, driven by online shopping and seasonal demand for fresh produce [3] - The logistics demand is particularly strong in the e-commerce sector, with improvements in service timeliness and fulfillment rates supporting growth in logistics for fresh agricultural products [5] Seasonal Trends - June's logistics development shows seasonal characteristics, with increased coal transport demand due to summer peaks, and a rise in orders for home appliances driven by trade-in programs [7] - The demand for rail transport, road transport, and e-commerce express services continues to recover [7] Investment Insights - Logistics infrastructure investment remains stable, with the fixed asset investment completion index rising to 54.5% in June, marking a continuous monthly increase since February [10] - Key projects in transportation logistics hubs are progressing smoothly, with fixed asset investment indices for water transport, air transport, and postal express services increasing by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points respectively [10] Future Outlook - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for four consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the logistics sector [11] - However, early onset of flood season and extreme weather conditions may pose challenges to efficient logistics operations, necessitating robust transport capacity and emergency plans [11]

7月2日，中国物流与采购联合会发布的2025年6月份中国物流景气指数为50.8%，环比回升0.2个百分 点。从分项数据看，业务总量和服务价格双双回升。 不过分析也指出，今年全国多地进入汛期较早，异常天气较多，局地持续高温和强降雨过程对物流高效 畅通带来一定压力，建议做好运力保障方案和应急预案。同时，行业企业盈利能力和资金周转仍存在压 力，建议增强物流"走出去"预判分析，持续优化市场秩序。 对于改善企业经营活力和提升盈利能力，专家建议增强物流"走出去"预判分析，多措并举治理行业"内 卷式"竞争，持续优化市场秩序。 前述专家指出，部分地区调研企业反映航空物流业务中，应季果蔬、冷链花卉不仅业务总量保持回升， 新订单业务量也保持回升态势。 服务价格回升但盈利能力持续承压 服务价格方面，分行业看，铁路运输业、道路运输业、水上运输业、航空运输业、邮政快递业物流服务 价格指数分别回升0.2个、0.1个、0.4个、0.2个和0.2个百分点。 "尽管服务价格有所回升，但面临'内卷式'竞争和经营压力持续上升，盈利能力和资金周转仍存在压 力。"中国物流信息中心的专家表示。 数据显示，6月份主营业务成本指数环比上升0.3个百分点，铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation announced that the logistics industry prosperity index for June is 50.8%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [1] Investment Situation - In June, logistics infrastructure investment maintained steady growth, with the fixed asset investment completion index rising to 54.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month [1] - Since February, the fixed asset investment completion index has shown a continuous upward trend month by month [1] - All sectors, except for warehousing, have shown recovery, with key projects in transportation logistics hubs progressing smoothly [1] Sector Performance - Fixed asset investment completion index for water transport, air transport, and postal express industries increased by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points respectively [1] - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for four consecutive months, indicating a high prosperity level [1] - The business activity expectation indices for railway transport, air transport, and postal express are 55.3%, 58.7%, and 57.4% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is experiencing an upward trend in business volume and overall prosperity, with the logistics prosperity index reaching 50.8% in June, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Industry Performance - The total business volume index has remained in the expansion zone for four consecutive months this year [1] - The central and western regions of China have business volume indices that exceed the national average [1] - Various sectors, including road transport, rail transport, air transport, and postal express, are all showing indices within the expansion range [1] Specific Sector Insights - The postal express and air transport sectors have particularly strong performance, with business volume indices of 69.3% and 52% respectively, driven by online shopping and seasonal demand for fresh cold chain products [1] - Seasonal characteristics are evident in logistics development for June, with increased coal transport demand due to summer peak seasons, and a rise in orders for home appliances and 3C products driven by trade-in programs [1] - The summer travel season is boosting demand in tourism, e-commerce, and outdoor products, with data indicating a recovery in demand across rail transport, road transport, and e-commerce express sectors [1]

此外，美国银行全球研究部经济学家阿迪亚·巴韦（Aditya Bhave）在当天的报告中表示，由于关税政策 的影响，商品价格可能会在未来几个月继续上涨。巴韦进一步预测，未来关税可能会对美国经济造成更 大的影响，尤其是在商品价格上涨的背景下，预计还会有更多由关税推动的通胀。 美国总统特朗普的税收与支出法案也成为市场关注的焦点，该法案当日在参议院以51比50的微弱优势通 过，接下来将再次交由众议院审议和表决所修改的内容。随着特朗普对最高关税的90天豁免期即将结 束，投资者普遍认为市场可能会出现波动，尤其是特朗普的关税政策可能对美国经济产生更多影响。 根据美国供应管理学会（ISM）1日发布数据，2025年6月美国制造业景气指数为49.0，略高于预期的 48.8和前值48.5。尽管该数据仍低于50，表明制造业仍处于收缩状态，但此次收缩幅度较预期更为温 和。本次数据高于道琼斯的48.6，显示出制造业萎缩的速度略有放缓。 当天，股市在科技股和医疗保险类股的表现上出现了明显分化。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，主要受医疗 保健股的推动。投资者开始转向医疗保险行业，选择购买安进（Amgen）、联合健康（UnitedHealth） 等公 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone industrial sentiment index for June is reported at -12, which is worse than the expected -10 and the previous value of -10.3 [1]