多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-28 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 35100 | -190 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 79868 | -932 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2350 | 250 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 27760 | -90 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 36500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 29 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1210 | -405 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 31.5 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.29 | -0.01 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 32.5 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 7340 | -100 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.23」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 双硅需求难有起色，库存依旧压制价格 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅收跌2.82%，市场在经历上周下跌后，本周继续下跌，主要原因来自于进入丰水期，工业硅成 本继续下滑，而当下现货价格已经跌破成本，多数企业无复工复产意愿，当然下游需求不畅是导致价格下跌主要原因， 工业硅基差走弱，现货价格下滑，后续预计库存下滑后，对价格整体有所支撑，本周多晶硅收涨0.32%，海外光伏组件 大厂破产传闻，以及头部企业联合去产能消息共振下，周五尾盘小幅拉升，但多晶硅目前基本面格局依旧不佳。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，从供应端来看，随着丰水期临近，云南、四川等地逐步进入丰水期，电价成本优势显现，但 是从开工率以及产量数据来反馈，目前西南地区并没有意愿复工，虽然产量小幅增加，但是依旧处于较低位置。工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply and demand situation is complex. On the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. On the demand side, the downstream photovoltaic module production schedule is synchronously reduced to 50 - 55GW, and the demand side shows an obvious marginal weakening trend. The inventory of the polysilicon industry remains high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory, putting serious pressure on the spot price. The macro - economic environment and international trade frictions also suppress overseas demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 35,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The main contract position is 70,536 lots, an increase of 41,848 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,305 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 38,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of polysilicon is 850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg. The average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 34.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton. The export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The spot price of industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, a decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars/kg. The monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, an increase of 11,443,000 kilowatts. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.91, a decrease of 0.62. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, an increase of 24,038,530 pieces. The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 9,846,120 pieces, a decrease of 2,122,260 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/piece [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of May 19, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type granular silicon are stable at 32 yuan/kg, 35.5 yuan/kg, 39 yuan/kg, and 37 yuan/kg respectively. From January to April, the social financing increment was 163.4 billion yuan, and the new loans were 100.6 billion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year [2].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 37150 | 300 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 28688 | -4014 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 875 | 155 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 29020 | 315 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 38750 | -1750 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30.5 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1900 | -680 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 33.5 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.3 | -0.04 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.5 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8130 | -15 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 529 ...

（阎晓宇） 本周多晶硅企业开始有一定量的签单，价格小幅下滑。 n型复投料成交价格区间为 3. 6 0-4. 1 0 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 3. 86 万元 / 吨，环比下降 1.53 % ； n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 3. 5 0-3. 7 0 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 3. 6 0 万元 / 吨，环比 持平 ； p 型多晶硅成交价格区间为 3. 0 0-3.50 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 3. 1 3 万元 / 吨，环比下降 3.10 % 。 造成本周多晶硅市场价格出现小幅下跌的主要原因依旧为库存存量过大及下游产品价格快速下 跌两方面。从行业库存的角度来看，目前月度勉强能达到供需平衡的状态，若后续下游开工持续下 滑，硅料端由于产线调整不灵活，很有可能出现月度累库的情况。从下游企业角度看，在前两月签 单数量较小的前提下，本月应有一定幅度的补库，但由于前期下游产品价格剧烈下降，出于避险心 态考虑，大批量签单较为谨慎，可能会采取高频率、小批量采购多晶硅的策略， 这种小规模采购会 带来相对行业平均更高的价格，将减缓多晶硅价格下跌幅度。 截至本周已有 2家企业进入停产检修状态，在产企业数量减少至11家。据统计， ...

前下游采购乏力，库存消化速度减缓，部分厂家面临较大的出货难题 。技术面上冲高回路，但成交量并未 下滑，高位换手，情绪面并没有打破，短期未能冲破20日均线压力位，后续预计还有部分上行动能，但是 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 警惕上方41000高压位置，操作上建议，多晶硅暂时观望 免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 38420 | 150 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 44692 | -7560 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1240 | -490 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 29930 | -110 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 40500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30.5 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2 ...

。技术面上突破60日均线压力，整数关口40000附近可能形成一轮高压。操作上建议，高空思路为主 免责声明 | | | 多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 38270 | -180 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 52252 | -15252 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1730 | -575 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 30040 | -90 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 40500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30.5 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2050 | -620 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 33.5 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.34 | -0.05 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 35 | 0 | | ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250512：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/12 今值 变动 | 指标 | 单位 | | | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,205.00 | -1.32% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 845.00 | 110.00 | | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 38.00 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 37,830.00 170.00 | 2.38% -880.00 | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,150.00 | 0.00% | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is facing significant cyclical challenges due to oversupply, leading to declining prices and increasing inventory levels, prompting companies to reduce production rates to manage costs and inventory [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The polysilicon market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping; for instance, the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon fell to 39,200 yuan/ton, down 5% from 41,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2025 [4][5]. - As of early May, polysilicon factory inventory reached approximately 257,000 tons, a high level compared to previous years [4]. - The main futures contract for polysilicon hit a historical low of 34,375 yuan/ton on May 8, indicating a downward trend in market prices [4]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Companies are actively seeking to reduce inventory by lowering production rates, with many polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang operating at below 50% capacity [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, companies maintain a positive outlook, believing that current difficulties are temporary and that the industry will eventually recover [6][10]. - Some companies are implementing measures such as rotating staff and maintaining basic salaries to manage costs while reducing production [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The polysilicon supply is projected to exceed demand by approximately 26,550 tons in 2025, with supply expected to be around 1,598,900 tons and demand at 1,333,400 tons [9]. - Xinjiang's electricity cost advantage, ranging from 0.22 to 0.38 yuan/kWh, is seen as a protective factor for local polysilicon companies against cost pressures [9]. - Companies believe that those who endure the current market conditions will benefit significantly when the market recovers [10]. Group 4: Role of Futures Market - The introduction of polysilicon futures has enhanced communication and collaboration between producers and traders, revitalizing the market [12][13]. - Many companies are now more open to working with traders, viewing them as a means to alleviate cash flow concerns and streamline sales processes [13]. - There is a growing interest among companies to establish themselves as delivery brands in the futures market, which could enhance their market opportunities and economic benefits [13][14].

光伏多晶硅近况更新 20250507 摘要 下游真实成交过程中的混包料与期货标准交割品和替代交割品分别对应哪些报 价？当前价格是多少？ 期货交割品为标准型致密料，替代交割品为优化型致密料。标准型致密料要求 块径较小，可达到斧头料标准，目前市场参考价格约为每公斤 37 元，部分厂 家报价可能低于 37 元，但跌破 36 元的不多。替代交割品 p 型致密料目前价格 约为每公斤 34 元出头。 下游拉晶厂主流成交的是 n 型致密或混包，高频交易 的大多数是质量较好的混包，由偏头部企业配制，其质量偏好，比起碎料降价 幅度有限，大约降 1 元左右。因此，目前市场上混包料的价格大约在每公斤 37 元左右。 当前市场上混包料的价格是多少？头部企业和拉晶厂的报价情况如何？ 市场上的混包料价格在 36 至 37 元之间，部分大厂在节前收回了低价报价，因 此现在也有一些报价达到 37 元。节后的价格基本没有真实成交，头部企业按 照常规量出货的价格偏向于 36 至 37 元，而拉晶厂则希望以 35 至 36 元拿货， 存在一定的价格博弈。 近期多晶硅现货市场的价格和产量情况如何？ 近期多晶硅现货市场的价格并没有发生太大的波动。节前 ...