| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should not be overly concerned if inflation temporarily falls below 2% and there is no urgency for the next interest rate cut [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member and German Bundesbank President Nagel emphasizes that a short-term dip in inflation below 2% does not warrant panic [1] - Nagel indicates that there is no immediate need to rush into the next rate cut, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

国外 1. 小摩：非农或重新点燃美国经济增长担忧，并加大美联储降息压力 美元交投稳定，因投资者在关键的美国非农就业报告出炉前按兵不动。经济学家预计，6月就业人口增 加11万人，低于5月的13.9万人，失业率预计将从4.2%上升至4.3%。摩根大通在一份报告中表示，这可 能会让对经济增长的担忧"重新成为人们关注的焦点"，并加大美联储加快降息时间表的压力。然而，他 表示，与就业相比，通胀离目标更远，因此美联储应在降息问题上保持谨慎立场。 2. 瑞银：特朗普对越南的20%关税处于预期范围的低端 瑞银经济学家William Deng在一份研究报告中说，美国对越南商品征收的20%关税处于预期范围的低 端。越南允许美国商品免税进入该国的决定"在很大程度上是意料之中的"，因为美国产品在技术和能源 等领域的更多准入应该有利于越南的经济增长。该贸易协议的细节对于确定对越南的经济影响至关重 要，尤其是对转运货物的影响，转运货物将面临40%的关税。今后一个关键的观察点是，是否有进一步 向美国和国际资本开放金融市场的细节。 3. 星展银行：美越贸易协议降低风险，但缺乏细节 星展银行高级经济学家Chua Han Teng说，美越贸易协 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone services sector showed a recovery in June after a brief contraction in May, with the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rising from 49.7 in May to 50.5 in June, indicating a return to growth albeit at a weak pace [1] - The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, increased from 50.2 to 50.6, marking a three-month high, but still reflects only moderate growth [1] - New orders in the Eurozone have declined for the 13th consecutive month, although the rate of contraction has slowed to a slight level of 49.7 [1] Group 2 - The services sector confidence index reached its highest level in 2025, recovering from a 29-month low in April, yet remains below the long-term trend [2] - Input cost inflation for the services sector dropped to a seven-month low, but sales prices increased at the fastest rate in three months, complicating the inflation outlook despite recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2] - More than half of economists surveyed expect the European Central Bank to cut rates again in September after a year-long easing cycle [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that the strong euro may have negative consequences, with the euro rising 14% to 1.18 against the dollar, contrary to expectations of parity this year [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that while the current exchange rate of 1.18 is manageable, a rise above 1.20 would complicate matters significantly [2] - The strong euro is lowering import prices, which could dampen inflation, while increasing export costs, impacting the trade-dependent European economy amid trade tensions with the US [2] Group 2 - Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at PIMCO, warned that if the euro reaches 1.25 against the dollar, the ECB may need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to mitigate inflation and economic impacts [3] - The ECB has already halved interest rates to 2% since June 2024, but the Federal Reserve's rates remain significantly higher, leading to unusual capital flows towards Europe [3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the dollar is facing issues, prompting investors to seek alternatives, although she did not directly address the impact on monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns are rising within the ECB as inflation in the eurozone reached the 2% mid-term target in June, with expectations of a drop to 1.6% next year [4] - Pooja Kumra from TD Securities warned that a strong euro combined with US tariffs could lead the eurozone back into a deflationary environment similar to the 2010s [4] - There is a dilemma for the ECB regarding currency intervention, as unilateral actions could backfire, and a prominent decision-maker noted that global central banks generally avoid such interventions [4] Group 4 - Some investors remain optimistic, with Mike Riddell from Fidelity International stating that the EU's significant trade surplus supports the euro's strength, suggesting that policymakers' complaints about the strong euro are unfounded [4] - Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujcic remarked that the current exchange rate is not abnormal and has been stable compared to historical levels since the euro's inception [4]

· 市场的注意力现在转向周四发布的美国非农就业数据。 · 欧元/美元从最近突破1.1800关口的高点回落。 · 美国美元在收益率上升的情况下获得了一些动能。 欧元（EUR）在周三结束了连续九天的上涨，欧元/美元在周二接近2025年高点1.1830后回落至1.1750区 域。该货币对的日内下跌主要是由于美元（USD）的反弹，尽管超买条件也在价格的突然变化中发挥了 作用。 对美联储的政治压力 与此同时，特朗普总统对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的批评再次升级，鲍威尔呼吁将利率降至"1%或更 低"，并指责美联储领导层失职，但这并未影响美元。 今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年 7 月 3 日的欧元/美元深入分析。 市场定位 截至6月24日的CFTC数据显示，单一货币的投机净多头上升至超过111.1K份合约，创下2024年1月以来 的最高水平。同时，商业交易者的净空头增加至164.3K份合约，为2023年12月以来的峰值。未平仓合约 随之上升，达到约762.6K份合约的两周高点。 技术水平 地缘政治与风险情绪 上周中东脆弱的停火协议重新激发了对风险资产的需求，给美元施加了压力，并为欧元及其他风险相关 货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IMF suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain the deposit rate at 2% unless a significant shock alters the inflation outlook [1] Group 1: ECB's Interest Rate Policy - The ECB has reduced the interest rate by two percentage points since June 2024 and has indicated a pause in further cuts [1] - Financial investors anticipate that the ECB may lower the rate to 1.75% later this year [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - IMF's Alfred Kammer states that the inflation risks in the Eurozone are two-sided, supporting the argument for maintaining the current rate [1] - The IMF's inflation forecast for next year is higher than the ECB's expectations, contributing to the differing views between the IMF and market participants [1]

欧洲央行管委雷恩：欧洲央行目前处于良好的位置，但没有理由掉以轻心。 ...

欧洲央行管委森特诺：仍然保持谨慎，关注所有可用数据。 ...

| 元用用模 贵金属日评20250702: 鲍威尔表示未排除7月降息可能,美国6月ISM制造业PMI小于50 | | | --- | --- | | 持仓量 | | | 18453.00 18237.00 18213.00 216. 00 240. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 772.04 764. 15 771.68 7.89 0. 36 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D | | | 成交重 39118.00 57766.00 35850.00 -18, 648. 00 3, 268. 00 持包量 217596.00 219956.00 209866. 00 -2, 360. 00 7.730.00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.86 -1.80 -1. 46 -2. 06 -2. 40 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -4. 06 -3. 43 -2. 26 -0. 63 -1.80 | | | 收盘价 8810.00 8762. 00 8726.00 48. 00 84. 00 成交重 342536.00 504424.00 606376.00 -161,888.00 -263, 840 ...