关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 6月以来，伊以冲突升温的背景下，伊朗一度威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗进行海峡封锁的可行性、可能 性与潜在影响？本文分析，可供参考。 一、封锁"霍尔木兹"的可能性？两重约束下可能性较低，市场也并不"买单" 近期，伊朗再度威胁要封锁霍尔木兹海峡。 6月13日，以色列针对伊朗发起"Rising Lion"行动，伊朗随即 展开报复。6月22日，伊朗议会通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡的决议，只差最高国家安全委员会做出批准。6月 24日，伊以宣布停火，但停火后双方仍有摩擦，冲突尚未完全平息。 伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡具有较高可行性，但面临经济约束与海湾国家的压力。 一方面，伊朗深受滞胀困 扰，封锁海峡对伊朗财政收入有明显冲击；另一方面，伊拉克、沙特等海湾国家高度依赖石油开采，贸 然封锁也会加深与其他中东邻国的隔阂。这或成伊朗封锁海峡的主要掣肘。 6月24日伊以宣布停火后，市场对封锁海峡的担忧已明显退坡。 1）Polymarket隐含的伊朗2025年封锁海 峡的可能性已由53%回落至17%。2）在伊以宣布停火后，油价已跌至6月12日伊以冲突爆发 ...

智通财经6月25日电，新加坡海峡时报指数收盘上涨0.6%，至3925.98点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have introduced 12 financial measures to support Fujian in exploring new paths for cross-strait integration and development, which has garnered significant attention from the business community in Taiwan [1] Group 1: Financial Measures - The measures aim to optimize the financial ecosystem of the cross-strait common "living circle" and enhance financial support for Taiwanese compatriots and enterprises in Fujian [1] - The policies include facilitating high-level open pilot projects for cross-border trade in Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Quanzhou, and promoting the convenience of cross-border investment and financing under capital accounts [1] - The measures also emphasize comprehensive financial regulation and effective prevention and resolution of financial risks [1]

Group 1: Conflict and Oil Prices - The Iran-Israel conflict has entered its 12th day, with a ceasefire announced on June 24, leading to a decrease in oil prices, with WTI at $65.3 per barrel and Brent at $67.2 per barrel, both down approximately 4.7% [1] - Analysts suggest that the conflict may be cooling down, with indications that Iran's actions are more symbolic and the U.S. response has been relatively mild [1] - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could surge significantly, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could exceed $100 per barrel and JPMorgan forecasting prices could reach $120-130 per barrel [6][7] Group 2: Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transit route, with over 25% of global oil trade passing through it, and it is vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, particularly from Qatar [8] - In 2024, oil flows through the Strait are projected to account for over 20% of global oil consumption and a significant portion of LNG trade [8][10] - Historical threats to close the Strait have not materialized, primarily due to external pressures and Iran's reliance on oil exports for revenue [22] Group 3: Shipping and Insurance Market Reactions - Shipping rates and insurance costs have risen sharply due to the conflict, with VLCC rates for the Middle East to China route increasing by 50% from early June [11][12] - The number of tankers entering the Strait has decreased significantly, with a 32% drop in empty tankers and a 27% drop in loaded tankers compared to early June [12] - War risk insurance for vessels in the Gulf region has increased from 0.2%-0.3% of the vessel's value to 0.5% [13] Group 4: Alternative Oil Transport Routes - There are four key alternative routes for oil transport that could mitigate the impact of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, including pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE [19][20] - Saudi Arabia has a pipeline capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, while the UAE has developed facilities to export oil outside the Strait [19] - The potential for alternative routes suggests that while a closure would have immediate impacts, the long-term effects may be less severe due to available options [18][19]

相关链接 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道，历史上，霍尔木兹海峡是否被封锁过？当时原油价格表现情 况又是如何？一图了解。 金十期货热图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, poses significant risks to global oil supply and prices, with predictions of oil prices potentially exceeding $100 per barrel if the strait is closed [3][4][7]. Oil Market Impact - Iran's parliament has reached a consensus to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt the transport of approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, representing over 25% of global maritime oil trade in early 2024 [3][8]. - Following the announcement, Brent crude oil prices surged by 6% at the opening on June 22, reaching over $78 per barrel, the highest level since late January [3]. - Historical context shows that previous threats from Iran to close the strait have caused significant market volatility, with oil prices reaching $146 per barrel in July 2008, a 49% increase from the beginning of that year [5]. Shipping and Trade Concerns - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a decrease in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping companies are avoiding the area due to safety concerns [6]. - Shipping organizations have advised vessels to reassess their routes and take maximum safety precautions when navigating near the strait [6]. Air Transport Disruptions - The conflict has also affected air travel, with airlines rerouting flights to avoid the Middle Eastern airspace, resulting in longer flight times and increased fuel costs [9]. - Major airlines, including Air France-KLM and British Airways, have canceled flights to and from the region due to safety assessments [9][10]. Strategic Considerations - Experts suggest that while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have severe implications for global oil prices and supply, it is not the most favorable option for Iran, as it would also hinder its own oil exports [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions and raised concerns about potential retaliation from Iran, including the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and Iranian Response - The U.S. has claimed to have "completely destroyed" key Iranian nuclear sites, but Iranian officials assert that their uranium enrichment capabilities remain intact, indicating that the conflict is far from over [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that Iran may respond with limited actions rather than a full-scale retaliation, as the current situation mirrors past events where Iran faced pressure but opted for restraint [2][3]. Group 2: Strait of Hormuz and Oil Supply Concerns - Iranian officials are evaluating the potential for blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for oil exports, with daily shipments through the strait averaging around 20 million barrels, accounting for 20% of global oil consumption [5][4]. - Historical context shows that Iran has previously threatened to close the strait during times of heightened tensions but has refrained from taking such drastic measures, suggesting that a full blockade is unlikely unless absolutely necessary [7][4]. Group 3: Long-term Conflict Dynamics - Israeli officials indicate that their military objectives regarding Iran's nuclear and missile programs are nearing completion, and they are not inclined to engage in a prolonged conflict, which would not serve their interests [8][12]. - Both Israel and Iran face significant challenges in sustaining a long-term conflict, with economic and military pressures likely to influence future interactions and potential diplomatic resolutions [12].

金十数据6月23日讯，多位知情人士表示，在此次美军针对伊朗核设施的军事行动中，与另外两处核设施不同，伊朗伊 斯法罕核设施并未遭B-2轰炸机投掷大型掩体炸弹。美国米德尔伯里国际研究学院的武器专家兼教授杰弗里·刘易斯仔细 研究了袭击地点的商业卫星图像后表示，该设施的受损似乎仅限于地面建筑。美总统特朗普美东时间21日宣布，美 军"成功打击"伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施。（央视） ·以色列总理称不会陷入消耗战 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/23 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025 ...

自伊朗纳坦兹、伊斯法罕、福尔多核设施遭美国轰炸后，以伊冲突呈现升级态势。 以军空袭德黑兰，多地爆炸，部分区域断电 伊朗4 0分钟内向以色列发射约1 5枚弹道导弹 据CCTV国际时讯，以色列空军正在对伊朗首都德黑兰发动一系列猛烈空袭。从媒体发布的现场画面来看，德黑兰 多个地点同时发生爆炸。德黑兰目前遭袭的包括伊朗红新月会大楼、能源部大楼、伊朗国家电视台大楼和一所大 学。而以色列军方称，打击的是当地的"军事目标"。 德黑兰北部部分区域已出现供电中断的情况。以色列军方称，德黑兰电力配送公司在空袭中遭受重创。 以色列再次袭击伊朗福尔多核设施 据央视新闻，当地时间23日，伊朗库姆省危机管理中心负责人表示，以色列当天再次袭击了福尔多核设施。该负 责人指出，核设施遭袭不会对公民造成（健康）危险或威胁。 当地时间22日， 美军对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹及伊斯法罕三处核设施进行袭击。 6月23日，据CCTV国际时讯：据以色列军方初步评估，当地时间今天（6月23日）上午， 伊朗共向以色列发射了 约15枚弹道导弹 。 导弹在近40分钟内多次齐射，是本轮冲突中持续时间最长的袭击之一。 普京会见伊朗外长 据央视新闻，当地时间23日， 俄罗斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is considered a high-risk, low-probability scenario due to multiple constraints affecting Iran's oil exports and its economic partnerships [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, stocks in the A-share port shipping, oil service facilities, and oil extraction sectors surged, with companies like Ningbo Shipping and Lianyungang hitting their daily price limits [1]. - International oil prices initially spiked over 6% but later turned negative, with WTI crude falling to $73.47 per barrel and Brent crude to $75.21 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route for oil exports, with approximately 20 million barrels per day passing through, accounting for over 25% of global maritime oil trade [2]. - About 84% of the oil and products transported through the Strait are destined for Asian markets, with India, Japan, China, and South Korea being the primary importers [2]. Group 3: LNG Trade and Risks - The Strait accounts for over 20% of global LNG trade, with 85% of these deliveries heading to Asia, while Europe has a relatively limited exposure [3]. - Potential disruptions in LNG transport could lead to increased competition for spot LNG in Asia, resulting in upward pressure on gas prices globally [3]. Group 4: Alternative Transport Routes - The market is evaluating alternative transport routes and ports, with limited capacity in existing pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia can handle 5 million barrels per day, but only 2.6 million barrels per day can be rerouted in case of a blockade [4][5]. Group 5: Economic Implications for Iran - Iran currently exports over 1.6 million barrels per day through the Strait, and any blockade would severely impact its economy and its partners, particularly Qatar, which relies heavily on this route for LNG exports [7]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the current oversupply of crude oil may not be significantly altered by this crisis, as OPEC's production increases and global economic weakness persist [8].