Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that Xiaomi experienced over 30% year-on-year growth during the recent 618 shopping festival, with domestic business maintaining a strong growth momentum in Q2, accumulating a total payment amount of 35.5 billion RMB [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that Xiaomi's electric vehicle factory phase two is preparing for production, with the YU 7 expected to be officially launched between late June and early July, which could be positive news for Xiaomi [1] - Technical analysis shows mixed signals; while overall signals indicate a buy with a strength of 15, some oscillators like the RSI are in overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term price adjustments [1][3] Technical Analysis - Xiaomi has two support levels at 52.3 and 54, with resistance levels at 58.4 and 60.4. The current price is 57.1, indicating a delicate balance between support and resistance [3] - The probability of an upward movement is 53%, with a 5-day volatility of 7.3%, reflecting market divergence in sentiment towards Xiaomi [3] Product Performance - Several products mentioned on June 19 performed well, with notable increases in warrants such as Citibank's warrant 13549 and HSBC's put warrant 14333, showing significant price appreciation within two days [3][5] Investment Opportunities - For those anticipating a rise in Xiaomi's stock price, Citibank's warrant 13549 offers the lowest premium with a leverage of 10.6 times and an exercise price of 61.5 [5] - For hedging against potential declines, HSBC's put warrant 14333 is recommended due to its low premium and implied volatility [6] Related Assets - Various warrants and certificates related to Xiaomi are available, including Citibank's warrant 13549 with a leverage of 10.6, and UBS's bear certificate 56421 with a leverage of 13.1 [7][8]

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Core Viewpoint - Tencent's stock price is currently at 506 HKD, showing a slight decline of 0.78%, with trading volume at 2.854 billion HKD, indicating a cautious market sentiment as the stock hovers below the 10-day moving average [1] Technical Analysis - The stock is experiencing narrow fluctuations below the 10-day moving average of 512.3 HKD, with the MACD indicator signaling a sell but nearing the zero axis, suggesting reduced volatility [1] - Key support is identified at 491 HKD, with potential downside to 474 HKD if this level is breached; resistance is noted at 522 HKD, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a challenge at 539 HKD [1] - Despite multiple moving averages indicating sell signals, the RSI at 52 is in a neutral zone, while the Williams indicator shows an oversold buy signal, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [1] Market Instruments - In the current market, bullish options include HSBC call warrant 15418 (16.3x leverage, exercise price 576.38 HKD) and UBS call warrant 17137 (11.6x leverage, exercise price 563.5 HKD), both exhibiting relatively low implied volatility [5] - For bearish strategies, options such as Morgan Stanley put warrant 15137 (10.3x leverage, exercise price 443.33 HKD) and UBS put warrant 16669 (10.7x leverage, exercise price 443.13 HKD) are available, along with Morgan Stanley bear certificate 58426 (16.9x leverage, redemption price 540 HKD) and UBS bear certificate 54414 (13.2x leverage, redemption price 550 HKD) [8]

（2）空间百分位 估值百分位的两种类型 百分位有两种： （1）时间百分位 是指当前估值在历史估值时间中，所处的百分位位置。 例如：最近5年，只有10%的时间里的估值，比当前更低，那当前的近5年百分位就是10%。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 投资指数基金时，百分位是一个很好的参考指标。 从低百分位的品种中，我们也可以尝试发掘出一些投资机会。 那么，在实际投资的时候，该如何参考这个指标呢？ 是指当前估值，在历史最低到最高估值之间，所处的位置。 例如：最近5年，历史最低10倍市盈率，最高50倍市盈率。当前20倍市盈率，所处位置为25%。 通常来说，在实际投资中，时间百分位使用得相对多一些。 只看百分位投资，也会有风险 只看百分位估值，有以下几种常见的风险： 下面，就来详细介绍一下。 风险1 指数上线时间短，历史估值参考价值低 百分位是一个很好的参考指标。 从低百分位的品种中，可以尝试发掘出一些投资机会。 因为一个品种的估值，会长期围绕它的平均值上下波动。 如果估值过低或者过高，未来大概率会回归到均值附近。 不过，百分位只是一种辅助的判断指标。 在一些情况下，百分位也可能会失效。 我们在观察估值百分位数据 ...

回顧週二（10日）的盤後專欄【港股Podcast】點評中提到：小鵬汽車-W (09868.HK)：投資者問是否在80元之上是否有比較大的阻力？從走勢看，比較大阻 力在83.3元左右，過往幾次在此位置都會跌回下去。也是目前數據系統分析的第一阻力位。窩輪市場上，觀察到早前有投資者在股價70-73元的時候已經部 署認購證和牛證，目前認為80元沖不過而選擇食糊。 今日（11日）港股新能源車板塊表現活躍，小鵬汽車(09868.HK)盤中一度沖高至81.45元，截止9點50分最新報80.9元，上漲1.89%，市場交投熱情高漲。在當 前價位，多空雙方展開激烈博弈，技術面呈現多個值得關注的信號。 從技術指標來看，小鵬汽車股價穩穩站在10日線(77.89元)和30日線(77.67元)上方，MACD指標呈現強勢買入信號，一目均衡表也發出看漲訊號。不過60日線 (79.31元)近在咫尺，成為短期重要阻力位。RSI指標位於54，處於健康區間，顯示股價仍有上行空間。保力加通道顯示股價在中軌上方運行，配合成交量放 大，技術面整體偏多。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 買入信號 | | --- | --- | | 強力買入 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The optical sector in Hong Kong is experiencing active performance, particularly with Sunny Optical (02382.HK), which has shown significant price movements and technical indicators suggesting a critical turning point for investors to consider [1][3]. Technical Analysis - Sunny Optical's stock price is currently at HKD 65.5, with a slight increase of 0.46%. The stock has recently broken through the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 66.69, reaching a high of HKD 67.3. The stock has shown a volatility of 10.7% over the past five days [1]. - The stock is positioned above the 10-day moving average (HKD 62.58) and the 30-day moving average (HKD 64.27), but faces resistance at the 60-day moving average (HKD 68.01). The MACD indicator shows a buy signal, while the RSI at 58 indicates that the stock is not yet in the overbought territory [1]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate an upward movement along the middle band, supported by a buy signal from the VR volume ratio indicator, suggesting a moderate inflow of funds. However, the Williams and Stochastic indicators are signaling sell, indicating a clear divergence in market sentiment [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support is identified at HKD 61.8, with stronger support at HKD 60.2. On the upside, the short-term breakout target is set at HKD 70.2, and if surpassed, the next target would be HKD 74 [3]. - The Bull-Bear Power indicator suggests a bullish market sentiment, but the Ichimoku Cloud shows a neutral signal, indicating that a breakout may require additional volume [3]. Investment Products - For investors optimistic about the optical sector, JPMorgan's call option (15709) offers a leverage of 4.2 times with a strike price of HKD 76 and low implied volatility. Societe Generale's call option (15995) provides 4.8 times leverage with the lowest premium and implied volatility, suitable for medium to long-term positioning [6]. - Short-term investors may consider Citigroup's bull certificate (55660) and HSBC's bull certificate (55910), offering leverage of 6.3 times and 6.1 times, respectively, with a buyback price of HKD 58, ideal for capturing short-term rebounds. For those bearish on the market, JPMorgan's bear certificate (56227) offers 5.6 times leverage with a buyback price of HKD 77 and the lowest premium [6]. Market Sentiment - Investors are encouraged to share their views on Sunny Optical's short-term trends, particularly regarding the potential to break the resistance at HKD 70.2 amidst a recovering demand for optical components. The high volatility of the stock raises questions about preferred trading strategies, whether to hold shares directly or utilize structured products for trading opportunities [9].

螺丝钉设计了黄金星级、以及螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，来帮助判断黄金的估值高低。跟股市牛 熊信号板类似，定期更新。 每周一，也会在小程序中更新螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，方便大家查询。 点 击进入「 今天几星 」 小程 序 ，在首页点击「牛熊信号板」按钮，就可以查看到当周最新 的黄金牛熊信号板了。 以下是6 月 的黄金牛熊信号板， 长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 黄金价格 黄金的价格， 我们平时说金价多少元一克，指的就是上海金的价格。 两者走势很相似，差距主要是汇率变化引起的。 • 海外主要参考伦敦金； • 内地主要参考上海金。 黄金历史星级 2025年6 月 ，黄金价格在 1.0 星级。 2022年最便宜的时候，黄金有到过4点几星级的低估。 黄金在2011-2016年，走出了长达6年的阴跌熊市。这个长度甚至超过了A股历史最长的熊市。 中间也出现过5星级的机会。 2017年之后，黄金逐渐从低估中走出。 过去10年，主要是2019-2020年，以及2023年至今，是黄金的主要上涨时间。 影响黄金价格的因素 影响黄金价格的因素，主要有以下三个方面。 （1）美元 影响黄金涨跌的一个主要因素， ...

回顧產品表現，在 2025/6/3 港交所上漲 2.48% 時，法巴認購證（27807）升幅達 20%，滙豐牛證（53712）漲 25%，滙豐認購證（29547）升 19%，瑞銀牛證 （54530）更是暴漲 30%，可見當時窩輪牛熊證市場跟隨港交所升勢，盈利空間驚人。 再來看看精選的窩輪牛熊證產品。若看好港交所後續向上突破，滙豐認購證（14150）槓桿 12.2 倍，行使價 472.2，溢價相對較低；花旗認購證（14134）槓 桿 13.4 倍，行使價 472.2，溢價和引伸波幅均最低。若擔憂股價回調，花旗認沽證（16606）槓桿 9.8 倍，行使價 333.9，溢價與引伸波幅最低；星展認沽證 各位股友，大家好！今日就同大家講下港交所嘅短線走勢、技術分析與窩輪市場機會。 截至今日（6日）上午11點06分，港交所（00388）最新報404元，跌幅0.3%，成交額達7.27億元。近期，港交所受全球金融市場波動、港股交投活躍度以及 政策預期等因素影響，走勢備受矚目 。 從技術分析來看，港交所的 RSI 值高達 75，已處於超買狀態。多個技術指標綜合呈現 "買入" 信號，強度為 15，多條移動平均線更是發出 "強力買 ...

2025年全球贸易与金融格局剧烈变动使得A股加剧震荡，板块轮动也越来越快。在这个不确定性变高的时 代，普通人用什么方法去识别能够穿越牛熊的优质资产？近期， 【华尔街见闻】对话中泰证券资管首席 投资官徐志敏，探讨穿越牛熊追寻Alpha的投资方法。 徐志敏管理超过百亿资金，信奉价值投资，严控资产质量，已连续十年跑赢沪深300。小编从这次对话中 精选出了12个问答，和各位投资路上的好朋友分享，后续还要更多精彩。 如何识别好公司？ 华尔街见闻 成功投资案例有什么共性吗？用什么分析框架，去准确识别值得投的好公司？ 徐志敏 在我看来，投资本质上是一系列取舍的组合，我们需要在可理解与可承受的交集里做选择。在投 资过程中，我们考虑最多的还是生意模式、护城河和安全边际。 首先是护城河。在我们的投资实践中，有一条非常重要的原则： 供给约束 。供给约束与护城河本身有重 叠之处，但供给约束的范围更宽泛。 经过这些年的积累，我们做投资更多地回归本源，把精力更多地放在好的生意模式和有强护城河的公司 上。 何为 好的生意模式 ？其实就是为客户创造巨大价值，同时企业从中获取一部分价值。好的生意模式需要 具备一定的议价能力，它与护城河共同构成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull-bear signal board for June 2025, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions [1]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that the market is in a relatively low valuation zone when below 80% [27]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that various market styles, including small-cap growth, are experiencing low valuations, with the growth style rebounding faster than value style [29][30]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio is currently at 3.24, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as this figure exceeds 94% of historical data [33]. - Financing balance in the A-share market reflects investor sentiment, with lower balances indicating a cooler market [8][36]. - The trading volume percentile is at 81.20%, suggesting that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical levels [9]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and their initial failure rates are used to gauge market sentiment, with higher failure rates typically indicating a bearish market [41]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply can help identify market liquidity and potential bottoming out [43]. - The scale of established funds has been declining significantly, with many funds down by 50%-60% from their peaks in 2021, indicating a low market sentiment [46]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 20.93%, which may suggest that fund managers perceive the market as expensive [17][54]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, with several monetary policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates [58]. Summary - The current market is characterized by low valuations and mixed investor sentiment, with indicators suggesting potential investment opportunities despite a generally bearish outlook [61][62].