另一方面，稳定币自带收入，发行稳定币的储备资产主要是美债，自带不低的利息收益。而Coinbase目前按照协议，只要Circle自身平台的USDC占比没有 迅速升高，那么一般情况下可以吃到一半以上的利息分成。 上篇讲Coinbase，海豚君说到Coinbase的价值能否打开非常依赖稳定币。 一方面，稳定币有利于Coinbase生态内的交易、托管、质押等基础业务，最关键是给Coinbase拓展了更多的业务场景，通过商业支付、资产代币化投资等 等，打开增长的想象空间。 但要说资金是无厘头瞎炒，倒也不至于。"赛道想象力大+稀缺"，这两个看点，足以让资金选择在当下（降息在即）扎堆上头。 但海豚君更想少一点宏大叙事的情绪亢奋，尽量理性地讨论：稳定币的市场规模到底有多大？Circle又有多稀缺？ 因此，本篇就详细讨论下稳定币背后的爆炒逻辑，下篇以Coinbase和Circle的估值收尾。 一、是市梦率泡沫还是小瞧了潜在空间？ Circle IPO估值68亿美元，上市后不足一个月，最高翻到过10倍，短期PE、PS都涨到了天上，似乎需要抬出"市梦率估值"来解释了。 1. 为什么稳定币有"刚需"？ 稳定币是加密货币的一种，它存在 ...

上篇 讲Coinbase，海豚君说到Coinbase的价值能否打开非常依赖稳定币。 一方面，稳定币有利于Coinbase生态内的交易、托管、质押等基础业务，最关键是给Coinbase拓展了更多的业务场景，通过商业支付、资产代币化投资等等，打开 增长的想象空间。 另一方面，稳定币自带收入，发行稳定币的储备资产主要是美债，自带不低的利息收益。而Coinbase目前按照协议，只要Circle自身平台的USDC占比没有迅速升 高，那么一般情况下可以吃到一半以上的利息分成。 因此，本篇就详细讨论下稳定币背后的爆炒逻辑，下篇以Coinbase和Circle的估值收尾。 以下为正文 一、是市梦率泡沫还是小瞧了潜在空间？ Circle IPO估值68亿美元，上市后不足一个月，最高翻到过10倍，短期PE、PS都涨到了天上，似乎需要抬出"市梦率估值"来解释了。（关于稳定币的基本概念，海 豚君做过总结已发布在 长桥App ， 本篇不再赘述，感兴趣的朋友可扫描下方二维码添加小助手微信 入群获取 ；还可在群内和更多朋友共同探讨投资观点。 ） 但要说资金是无厘头瞎炒，倒也不至于。 "赛道想象力大+稀缺" ，这两个看点，足以让资金选择在当 ...

编者按： 当美国、欧洲、中国香港等经济体相继出台稳定币监管法规，传统金融体系的边界在数字经济浪潮中加速消 融。稳定币正以"技术创新+合规发展"的双轮驱动模式，成为重构全球金融格局的核心变量。证券时报今起 推出"聚焦稳定币"栏目，持续追踪稳定币生态全链条参与主体：深度对话监管机构的政策制定逻辑，解码发 行方的合规运营路径，解读投资机构的价值判断逻辑，以多维视角全景呈现这一新兴金融业态的发展图谱。 在香港虚拟资产交易生态中，交易所扮演着关键角色。目前，已有11家企业获得香港证监会（SFC）发放的虚拟资产交易平台牌照，HashKey集团旗下HashKey Exchange为其中之一。HashKey集团为稳定币发行人"圆币科技"的投资方，且已与京东稳定币达成合作，HashKey Exchange也即将上线多种稳定币，从法币门户 扩张至稳定币门户，实现稳定币与法币的无损换汇等服务。 就香港《稳定币条例》将如何巩固和提升香港国际金融中心的地位，以及香港金融市场的生态将会发生什么变化等问题，HashKey集团董事长肖风近日接受了证券 时报记者的采访。在采访中，肖风系统阐释了稳定币在普惠金融、跨境贸易及人民币国际化进程中的核 ...

Core Insights - The new stablecoin regulatory framework effective from August 1 in Hong Kong provides a clear landscape for investors in the virtual asset sector, indicating that issuers, licensed exchanges, and related service providers will benefit directly from this compliance [1][10]. Market Overview - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $230 billion, with major players like Tether and Circle dominating the space, holding nearly 87% of the market share [4][10]. - The stablecoin market is categorized into four types: fiat-backed, crypto-backed, commodity-backed, and algorithmic stablecoins, with fiat-backed being the most prevalent and the focus of Hong Kong's regulations [4][5]. Profitability Models - Stablecoin issuers have a clear and attractive business model, primarily generating revenue from reserve asset returns, with Circle's income largely derived from investing reserves in low-risk assets like U.S. Treasury funds [6][9]. - The revenue structure for exchanges like OSL shows a significant portion coming from digital asset trading fees, highlighting the monetization pathways available in the ecosystem [11]. Competitive Landscape - The competition for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is intensifying, with several companies vying for the first batch of licenses, including Circle, JD Group, and others [10][12]. - Licensed exchanges are crucial for the circulation and trading of stablecoins, with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission having issued multiple licenses to date [10][11]. Key Participants - Key players in the ecosystem include issuers, licensed exchanges, traditional brokers, and infrastructure providers, each with distinct roles and revenue models [10][15]. - Companies with a strong retail customer base and advanced technology platforms, like Futu, are positioned favorably in the competitive landscape [15][17]. Conclusion - The regulatory developments in Hong Kong's stablecoin market present significant opportunities for companies that can secure licenses and leverage their technological and customer advantages to capitalize on the growing digital finance landscape [17].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" marks a significant advancement in cross-border payment systems, enabling real-time transactions between mainland China and Hong Kong in both Renminbi and Hong Kong Dollar [1][2] - The system leverages blockchain technology to reduce transaction times from 1-5 working days to seconds and cut fees by 80%, enhancing the efficiency of cross-border payments [2] - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is evolving, with Hong Kong's new regulations set to take effect, requiring stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve and undergo quarterly audits [4][6] Group 1: Cross-Border Payment Link - The "Cross-Border Payment Link" officially launched on June 22, 2025, connecting the mainland's interbank payment system with Hong Kong's Fast Payment System [1] - Initial use cases include tuition payments, medical fees, and salary disbursements, with transaction limits increased from 10,000 to 100,000 [2] - This infrastructure supports the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhances financial integration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2] Group 2: Stablecoin Development - The introduction of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" presents a historic opportunity for stablecoins, allowing settlement times to be reduced to minutes [4] - Hong Kong's new stablecoin regulations will require issuers to hold at least 80% of their reserves in cash and government bonds, limiting high-risk assets [6] - Major companies like JD.com and Ant Group have applied for licenses, indicating a trend towards compliant stablecoins being integrated into the "Cross-Border Payment Link" [4] Group 3: Market Response and Growth - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion, reflecting a 120% increase from 2024, driven by regulatory compliance [6] - USDC's market share has risen to 42%, positioning it as a preferred stablecoin for cross-border payments [6] - Companies such as Standard Chartered and Zhenrong Bank are actively participating in stablecoin sandbox tests, exploring asset custody models [4][6] Group 4: Related Companies - Sifang Jingchuang is the only A-share company involved in the central bank's mBridge project, with a projected 300% increase in orders by 2025 [8] - Changliang Technology has deep ties with the Vietnamese central bank, with overseas revenue exceeding 25% and recent wins in cross-border payment projects [9] - New Morning Technology reported a 200% year-on-year increase in cross-border payment revenue in Q1 2025, providing stablecoin custody solutions for Standard Chartered [10] - JD Group's subsidiary is in the second phase of Hong Kong's stablecoin sandbox testing, aiming to launch a Hong Kong Dollar/US Dollar stablecoin within the year [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has benefited from previous overseas liquidity easing, leading to active investments in small and thematic stocks. The market is expected to accommodate 100-200 new AH shares and returning US stocks, supported by policies and liquidity injections [1][2][3] - The Hong Kong government and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) have increased their focus on the capital market, providing a stable foundation for the Hong Kong stock market, allowing it to remain strong even amid external disturbances such as trade wars [1][4][5] Core Industry Directions - Long-term optimism is noted in sectors such as the internet, smart driving, and new consumption. Companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold are showing global potential, while AI technology is enhancing valuations for firms like Xiaomi. The innovative drug sector also presents growth opportunities [1][6][7] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include internet giants Tencent and Alibaba, which remain key holdings for many institutions. Xiaomi is highlighted for its strong alpha logic and performance, while new consumption brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold are recognized for their growth potential through technological breakthroughs and globalization strategies [1][6][7] Xiaomi's Market Expectations - There is high market anticipation for Xiaomi's new car launch, with expected large sales reaching 250,000 units and monthly sales of 40,000 units. This could significantly impact Xiaomi's stock price positively. The company is viewed favorably for its diversified development in automotive, IoT, mobile, and robotics sectors [1][8][10] Smart Driving Technology - Smart driving technology is advancing, with Chinese companies demonstrating strong competitiveness. The launch of Tesla's Robo TAXI is a notable example. Companies like Li Auto, Pony.ai, WeRide, and Hesai Technology are gaining attention in this field [3][11][12] New Consumption Sector - Despite some recent underperformance from new consumption stocks like Haidilao, the sector remains vibrant. Pop Mart continues to show strong performance, and other companies like Blok are also worth monitoring. The new consumption sector is expected to maintain long-term investment value [1][6][13] Web 3.0 Ecosystem - The Web 3.0 ecosystem is evolving, particularly with the attention on Bitcoin ETFs. Traditional financial institutions are entering the space, and the compliance of stablecoins is expected to create new growth opportunities. Companies like ZhongAn Online are highlighted as potential investments in this area [3][14][17] AI Applications and Opportunities - AI applications are gradually becoming commercialized, with expectations for more applications to emerge in the second half of the year and into 2026. The release of GPT-5 is anticipated to enhance market expectations [1][18] - The AI video sector is also gaining traction, with platforms like Kuaishou showing significant growth in AI-generated content. The potential for AR technology in this space is substantial, with projections for significant revenue increases [1][19]

2亿股民速看！ 最近，稳定币赛道成了全网热议的焦点，而真正的"王牌选手"已然现身——蚂蚁集团正式递交了香港稳定币牌照申 请！ 这一动作极有可能重塑加密金融格局，与之深度绑定的三家上市公司，正站在风口浪尖，蓄势待发。 这可不是毫无根据的猜测！ 从国际形势来看，美国参议院正加速推进《2025年稳定币法案》，打算把稳定币纳入联邦监管体系； 再看国内，中国香港立法会迅速通过了《稳定币条例草案》，明确了发牌制度与市场规范。全球两大金融中心同步 为稳定币"发证"，这意味着数字货币正式迈入合规化发展的新阶段。 在这波政策红利中，最耀眼的明星非蚂蚁集团莫属。 2025年6月12日，蚂蚁数科副总裁边卓群透露，蚂蚁已正式启动香港稳定币牌照申请流程，并且顺利完成了香港监管 沙盒测试，技术合规性得到了官方认可。 当前，全球稳定币市场规模正以惊人的速度扩张。截至5月31日，总市值突破2500亿美元，较2024年底暴增400亿美 元。 德意志银行预测，2025年稳定币市值将突破2500亿美元；花旗银行更为乐观，预计2030年稳定币市值将达到3.7万亿 美元。 在政策扶持与市场需求的双重驱动下，稳定币产业链相关企业迎来了前所未有的发展机遇 ...

稳定币浪潮正向全球袭来，成为各国急需解决的重要课题——放任稳定币在监管外围无序发展会对本国金融体系造成负面影响，放弃一个高效的 结算工具更将错失货币全球化新机遇。 对于正在积极提升人民币国际化地位的中国，主动监管稳定币并顺势而为加速人民币国际化或许是更优解。接受记者采访的专家与业内人士普遍认为，作为新兴支 付工具，稳定币的独特优势和潜在风险均不容忽视，发展人民币稳定币"宜早不宜迟"。基于数字人民币和离岸人民币稳定币"双轨并进"参与国际货币体系竞争，或 是时代变局下人民币国际化的新路径。 不容忽视的支付工具 今年5月以来，美国和中国香港地区相继通过稳定币相关法案，将法币支持型稳定币（以下简称"法币稳定币"）定位为支付工具，与证券类代币等严格区分，加强反 洗钱、反恐融资监管等。英国、韩国等多个国家也纷纷明确将稳定币纳入立法计划。 稳定币合规化进程提速的背后，是其在全球支付系统的重要性不断提升，成为各国不得不重视的新工具。 目前，全球稳定币的市场规模已经超过2500亿美元。Visa 监测数据显示，截至2025年6月，经调整后的稳定币支付交易次数高达16亿次，交易金额高达7.3万亿美元。据花旗银行研究报告测算，203 ...

近期，各券商研究所掀起稳定币研究热潮。据统计，仅过去一周，就有至少16家券商发布24篇研报对稳定 币进行系统研究，其中不乏专题及深度研究。 与此同时，本月以来多只稳定币概念股被机构扎堆调研。券商普遍认为，随着全球各地监管政策的落地，稳定 币行业有望实现合规发展，未来有望在应用广度和深度上不断延伸。 券商掀起稳定币研究热潮 根据券商中国记者不完全统计，仅过去一周（6月15日至6月21日），就有至少16家券商发布24篇研报全面研究 稳定币，内容覆盖宏观、计算机、传媒互联网、金融、区块链等多个行业角度。其中不乏一些券商推出稳定币 专题及深度研究，比如国金证券、中泰证券、东吴证券、天风证券均推出稳定币专题或深度研究，中信证券宏 观、海外、银行、非银等多个研究团队从各个行业角度深入研究。 伴随券商研报密集出炉，路演和电话会议热度也持续攀升。券商中国记者获悉，仅近半个月，券商举办的以稳 定币为主题的电话会议就超过30场，覆盖了政策解读、产业链分析和投资策略等多个维度。 东吴证券首席策略官孙婷认为，稳定币作为一种重要的加密货币，其核心特征在于与特定稳定资产挂钩，以维 持其价值的稳定，并在数字金融领域发挥着日益关键的作用。 ...

Industry Insights - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have launched the "Cross-Border Payment Link," which connects the mainland online payment interbank clearing system with Hong Kong's "Faster Payment System," officially going live on June 22 [1] - The system allows residents from both regions to conveniently conduct real-time cross-border remittances in Renminbi and Hong Kong dollars via mobile numbers or bank accounts, covering scenarios such as salary payments and tuition fees [1] - The introduction of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" opens new avenues for the compliant application of stablecoins, potentially serving as a technical template for regulated stablecoin cross-border circulation [1] - The policy direction is expected to support the cross-border payment industry in unlocking new growth opportunities, enhancing the functions and scope of CIPS, and promoting high-level opening-up through free trade zone pilot projects [1] - The global perspective indicates that the compliance process of stablecoins is likely to drive the restructuring of the global payment system, with stablecoin payments offering significant advantages in cost and efficiency compared to traditional cross-border payment methods [1] Company Developments - Zhongyi Technology announced on June 9, 2023, that it is involved in the IT infrastructure construction for clients' digital currency systems and provides operational maintenance services for the related IT infrastructure [2] - Sanwei Xinan is leading the formulation of the "GM/T 0111-2021 Blockchain Cryptography Application Technical Requirements," leveraging its accumulated expertise in blockchain technology, with related products already applied in digital currency operations [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of blockchain technology in ensuring the security and credibility of transactions in digital currency, committing to ongoing research and implementation of blockchain and digital currency technologies to promote financial innovation and safeguard data privacy and security [2]