美丽大法案落地：经济与财政影响 20250709 综合所有条款内容，预计未来十年总赤字扩张约 3.25 万亿美元。此外，为应 对今年（2025 年）联邦政府债务触及法定上限问题，将债务上限从 36 万亿提 高到 41 万亿，以维持政府现金流。 为了覆盖减税带来的债务成本，相应地在 其他部门进行了支出削减，包括医疗补助补贴、奥巴马医改内容、农业部门食 品券福利，以及学生贷款和助学金政策紧缩。清洁能源相关资金授权也被取消， 总体来看这些措施将在未来几年逐步扩大支出削减力度。 对于经济影响，根据 智库及官方机构测算，本轮效果弱于 2017 年的全面下调个人所得税与企业所 得税。本次主要以延长条款为主，对居民体感影响较小。中性预测显示未来十 年 GDP 平均增长 0.5 个百分点，即每年增长 0.05 个百分点左右。Tax Foundation 测算结果偏乐观，因为该机构专注于研究不考虑大规模财政扩张 负面冲击。 2. 企业所得税：2017 年已将企业所得税率从 35%降至 21%，此次未进一 步调降，而是升级了会计准则，如研发费用投资费用化、厂房投资费用 化等，预计未来十年对赤字影响约 1 万亿美元。 3. 惩罚性 ...

Core Points - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the Forest Law in Heilongjiang province to support ecological civilization and sustainable development [1][2] - The inspection team, led by Li Hongzhong, conducted on-site checks in various locations to assess the implementation of forest protection and development initiatives [1] - The article highlights the integration of ecological protection and economic development, focusing on the dual goals of forest conservation and the development of the under-forest economy [1][2] Group 1 - The inspection team reviewed the implementation of the Forest Law and its impact on ecological safety and high-quality forestry development [2] - Li Hongzhong stressed the need for a comprehensive approach to environmental protection, including the integration of various natural resources [2] - The article mentions the importance of increasing forest area and quality as part of the broader goal of achieving harmonious coexistence between humans and nature [2] Group 2 - The article outlines the necessity of strengthening local responsibilities for forest protection and enhancing the rights of forest farmers [2] - It calls for the use of legal frameworks to promote high-quality forestry development and modernize the forestry sector [2] - The article advocates for a collaborative approach involving legislation, enforcement, and public education to ensure effective forest protection [2]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%；10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99，离岸人民币升值至7.1701；WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日，美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示，约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率，只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期，联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人，失业率回落至 4.1%，主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温，9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言，表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一） ...

Group 1: Core Concepts - The construction of beautiful cities and "waste-free cities" share a common pursuit for future urban development, focusing on high-quality living and sustainable development [1] - The "five beauties" goals of beautiful city construction—green and low-carbon, beautiful environment, ecological livability, safety and health, and smart efficiency—align closely with the principles of waste reduction, recycling, and safe disposal in waste-free cities [1] Group 2: Implementation Strategies - Emphasizing source reduction and green transformation is essential for solidifying the foundation of beautiful city construction, requiring collaboration among various departments to manage solid waste effectively [1][2] - The integration of resource recycling and facility fusion is crucial for enhancing the operational efficiency of beautiful cities, promoting a comprehensive approach to solid waste management [2] - The establishment of a "multi-network integration" system for urban solid waste collection and transportation is necessary to facilitate high-value utilization and clean regeneration of solid waste [2] Group 3: Safety and Regulation - Strengthening digital empowerment and information management is vital for enhancing the safety baseline of beautiful cities, particularly in the regulation of hazardous waste [3] - The development of new technologies for the comprehensive utilization of emerging solid waste types, such as retired batteries and solar panels, is a priority [3] Group 4: Value Creation and Community Engagement - The implementation of "waste-free cells" and the cultivation of demonstration models like "waste-free campuses" and "waste-free business circles" are key to enriching the development connotation of beautiful cities [4] - Establishing a green financial support system for waste-free city construction can enhance the availability of financial products for waste-free industries [4] - The focus on transforming solid waste recycling into a resource for green and low-carbon transitions is essential for realizing ecological and economic benefits in beautiful cities [4]

2025 年 7 月 10 日 星期四 每日大市点评 7 月 9 日，港股大盘再度调整，但市场交易热度不减。恒生指数全日下跌 255 点或 1.1%，收报 23,892 点。恒生科指下跌 1.8%，收报 5,231 点。大市成交金额达 2,339 亿港元，港股通净流入 92 亿港元。市场赚钱效应尚可，资金在不同题材股 份轮动，生物医药、博彩、工程机械、教育、娱乐等细分板块表现突出。巨星传奇(6683 HK)大升 94.4%，成交金额达到 114.9 亿港元。香港中旅(308 HK)也大升 19.9%，成交金额增加至 26.4 亿港元。昨日三只重点新股首日上市表现理想，蓝 思科技(6613 HK)、极智嘉(2590 HK)及 Fortior(1304 HK)分别升 9.4%、5.4%及 16.2%，半新股宁德时代(3750 HK)及恒瑞 医药(1276 HK)分别大升 7.2%及 15.6%，双双创上市新高。 宏观动态： 中国内需保持温和增长，上游厂商仍有降价压力，但下游逐渐改善，物价指数开始出现利好征兆。6 月中国 CPI 同比上升 0.1%，时隔五个月重新增长。核心 CPI 升至 0.7%，为 2024 年 ...

投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 2025年已行至过半，海外宏观的变局仍在加速发酵。全球资本市场仿佛坐上了一辆没有终点的过山车，起伏震荡成了常态。 7月4日美国"独立日"当天，特朗普正式签署了名为"大美丽" 的法案 （One Big Beautiful Bill Act，简称OBBB）； 美联储在特朗普1月重返白宫后，似乎就按下了降息的暂停键，连续四次暂停操作后，市场对后续政策路径的预期不断摇摆； 随着美国对多国关税豁免期限（7月9日）临近到期，新一轮博弈箭在弦上，全球贸易体系再次面临重构。 这些看似孤立的事件，实则彼此交织、相互影响，共同塑造着我们这个时代的投资底色。 理解这些变化，不仅关乎投资收益，更是在这个加速变化的世界里，保持清醒认知的必修课。 以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 01 变局大幕 教你挖掘基 . ——大美丽法案的核心议题 5月22日，美国众议院以微弱优势通过了"大美丽法案"的众议院版本。 此后，这一法案在重重争议中艰难推进——既要弥合共和党内部分歧，又要应对民主党全面抵制，期间甚至上演了特朗普与马斯克的公开骂战。 直到7月1日，副总统万斯投出关键一票，"大美丽法案"才最终通过 ...

Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the development of a "small yet exquisite" and "small yet beautiful" city in Hebi, focusing on ecological and environmental improvements, urban green spaces, and sustainable urban planning to enhance the quality of life for residents [5][10][15]. Group 1: Urban Greenery and Environment - Hebi has achieved a park green space service radius coverage of 98.8%, a city green space rate of 43.3%, and an average of 21.5 square meters of park green space per person, leading the province in these metrics [5]. - The city has been recognized with over 150 national-level honors, including being a national ecological civilization construction demonstration zone and a national forest city [6]. - Air quality improvement efforts have placed Hebi seventh among 168 key cities in the country, with a 20.3% year-on-year improvement in the air quality index [7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Goals - The city has established a leadership group for beautiful city construction and has implemented the "Ten Requirements" action plan to enhance urban quality [7][10]. - Hebi aims to become a national benchmark city for environmental quality improvement, with a focus on green low-carbon transformation and intelligent environmental governance [11][12]. - The strategic plan includes seven major actions and four lists of key tasks, projects, policies, and achievements to ensure systematic progress in urban development [12][13]. Group 3: Community and Infrastructure Development - The city has completed the creation of 118 green communities and has renovated 294 old residential areas, enhancing urban livability [8]. - Hebi is advancing towards a "waste-free city" and has implemented measures to improve urban ecological quality, including noise pollution control and the establishment of natural ecological barriers [14]. - The city is also focusing on building a smart governance system for ecological management, enhancing policy incentives, and promoting community participation in environmental initiatives [14][15].

Group 1 - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBB) was signed by Trump on July 4, 2025, marking a significant legislative change in the U.S. [1][2] - The OBBB focuses on three main areas: large-scale tax cuts, adjustments to government spending, and an increase in the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, which is the largest adjustment in U.S. history [4][8] - The act has a dual impact on various industries, providing significant tax benefits to traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, defense, agriculture, and semiconductors, while reducing incentives for clean energy, electric vehicles, healthcare, and food sectors [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts four times, with market expectations leaning towards two rate cuts by the end of the year, likely starting in September [10][12] - Trump's administration is advocating for immediate rate cuts to manage the increased debt from the OBBB and to counter potential economic stagnation due to tariffs and immigration policies [12][16] - The current economic environment presents challenges for the Fed, including fiscal expansion, changing economic fundamentals, and uncertainties from tariffs, which complicate the decision-making process [16] Group 3 - The expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9, 2025, has led to renewed concerns about global trade dynamics, with Trump announcing new tariffs on imports from 14 countries starting August 1 [17][19] - The ongoing trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China, are expected to continue until August 12, 2025, amidst fluctuating market reactions to Trump's tariff strategies [20][21] Group 4 - The investment landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with a shift from "American exceptionalism" to a more regionalized global economy, necessitating a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies [22][24] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a diversified approach to mitigate uncertainty, focusing on sectors aligned with emerging trends such as AI and high-end manufacturing [25][26] - Maintaining liquidity and a long-term investment perspective is crucial for navigating the current market volatility and capitalizing on future opportunities [27][28][30]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Policy Analysis - The "Beautiful America Act" emphasizes tax cuts for residents and businesses while neglecting social welfare and healthcare sectors [3][21] - The rising U.S. fiscal deficit is attributed to the shift from "balanced finance" to "functional finance," driven by slowing economic output and increasing government spending [3][21] - Support for the new act is divided among social groups, with small business owners and manufacturers in favor, while healthcare and clean energy sectors express dissatisfaction [3][22] - The market's reaction to the fiscal deficit has become "dull," indicating that the narrative around the impact of the deficit on broad national credit has lessened [3][24] Group 2: Industry Insights and Company Analysis - Zhejiang Shibao is a leading player in the automotive steering system industry, focusing on electric power steering systems and line control steering technology [9][32] - The company has seen a recovery in gross margin and net profit due to increased production capacity and the introduction of high-margin products [9][34] - Forecasts for Zhejiang Shibao's revenue from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 35.1 billion, 43.7 billion, and 52.0 billion CNY, with net profits expected to grow significantly [9][36] - Zhonggu Logistics is experiencing high demand in the container shipping market, with domestic shipping rates expected to rise due to capacity shortages [16][39] - The company is projected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a forecasted dividend ratio of 90% in 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of around 10% [16][40] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Developments - BeiGene's CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395 is on track to become the second CDK4 inhibitor to enter the registration clinical phase, showing promising early efficacy signals [11][41] - The drug demonstrates higher selectivity compared to existing CDK4/6 inhibitors and has shown strong pharmacokinetic data [11][42] - Revenue forecasts for BeiGene from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 375.17 billion, 450.24 billion, and 540.34 billion CNY, with significant growth in net profit anticipated [11][43]