Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized that fluctuations in currency are natural and reaffirmed the commitment to a strong dollar policy [1] Group 1 - Currency fluctuations are considered a normal occurrence in the financial landscape [1] - The U.S. administration maintains its stance on promoting a strong dollar [1]

随着全球市场对特朗普政府经济政策走向的关注升温，白宫经济顾问委员会主席史蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）近日在接受媒体采访时，明确表示 美国依然坚 持"强势美元"政策 ，驳斥了外界关于酝酿"弱美元"转向或秘密货币协议的猜测，他 明确否认美国在贸易谈判中存在秘密货币协议 。 这一表态做出后，美元指数应声上涨，日内涨幅达0.5%，报100.1216， 随后小幅回落。 他三连否认道： 没有、没有、绝对没有（there is none there. There, you know, there, there, there is none）。 面对主持人关于日韩等国放任本币升值的追问，米兰继续否认。 他强调美国依然坚持"强势美元"政策 ，财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）才是对美元政策拥 有权威的人。 尽管Miran和财政部多次否认，市场仍对可能存在的货币干预计划保持高度警惕， 部分原因是特朗普长期以来对强势美元的批评立场。 此外，米兰不仅对当前的汇率政策进行了澄清，也回应了外界对全面关税、经济赤字以及潜在衰退的担忧，全面阐述了特朗普政府的经济战略思路。 "海湖庄园协议操刀人"的标签源于米兰去年撰写的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.5%, reaching 100.1216, indicating a strengthening of the dollar in the market [1] Group 1 - The Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, stated that the U.S. will continue to pursue a strong dollar policy [1]

白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰：美国将继续推行强美元政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. continues to pursue a strong dollar policy without engaging in secret currency negotiations [1] Group 1 - The statement was made by Trump's economic advisor, Miran, emphasizing the commitment to a strong dollar [1]

Core Insights - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with Shanghai gold and silver prices rising by 0.88% and 0.61% respectively, while international precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold and silver dropping by 0.90% and 0.98% respectively [1][2] Price Movements - As of May 16, 2025, the main contracts for precious metals showed the following prices: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 747.80 CNY/gram, peaked at 759.20 CNY/gram, and hit a low of 746.44 CNY/gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 8054.00 CNY/kg, peaked at 8165.00 CNY/kg, and hit a low of 8052.00 CNY/kg [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3243.50 USD/ounce, peaked at 3255.80 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 3209.20 USD/ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 32.80 USD/ounce, peaked at 32.87 USD/ounce, and hit a low of 32.45 USD/ounce [2] Market Sentiment - Tanglewood Total Wealth Management's macro investment strategist indicated that the Trump administration appears to be leaning towards weakening the dollar to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, which could potentially benefit gold prices [3] - The dollar weakened during trading, with reports suggesting discussions between the U.S. and South Korea regarding monetary policy, hinting at a potential softening of the dollar [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to reassure market participants that the U.S. is not seeking a weaker dollar, while trade representatives are not planning to include currency commitments in future trade agreements [3] Market Analysis - On May 15, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.74% to 3243.90 USD/ounce, with the latest CME "FedWatch" data indicating a 91.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, and an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The probabilities for maintaining rates in July stand at 63.2%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 34.2% and a 50 basis point cut at 2.6% [4]

尽管黄金价格今年已飙升至创纪录的3500美元/盎司，但投资机构Incrementum AG在周四发布的《In Gold We Trust》年度报告中指出，黄金的长期牛市仍处于早期阶段，并有望在本十年后半段实现更高涨 幅。 由基金经理斯托费勒（Ronald-Peter Stferle）和瓦莱克（Mark Valek）领衔的研究团队重申了其长期预 测：到2030年黄金将达4800美元/盎司。但在当前通胀威胁加剧的背景下，他们更提出"牛市情景"下金 价可能飙升至8900美元。"今年以来，冲动型牛市已推动金价更接近通胀情景的预测路径，而非基准情 景。"分析师写道。 2020年首次发布这一预测时，Incrementum便警告美联储将难以遏制伴随政府债务攀升的通胀。如今五 年过去，两位分析师表示，随着黄金逐渐被全能型投资者认可，其作为重要货币资产的地位正重新确 立。数据显示，过去五年金价上涨92%，但在整体投资组合中占比仅约1%。 "我们正见证一场长期牛市缓慢成为主流。"报告强调，"根据道氏理论，当前处于牛市三阶段中的'公众 参与期'，其特点是媒体日益乐观的报道，最终将导向疯狂阶段。" 尽管今年金价表现亮眼，但相比历史牛 ...

操作策略1：建议回调3360-3355多，损3347，目标看3380-3410。 操作策略2：建议反弹3415-3420空，损3427，目标看3385-3360。 面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。本人解读世界经济体制，全面 剖析海内外交易品种，重点把握第一时间重要财经基本面的解说，引领投资者正确导向，投资是一个完整体系包括投资理念，投 资心态，资金管理，风险控制，投资策略，操作手法与思路，黄金白银、原油等，每日行情解读，敬请关注！以上内容属徐老师 原创，个人观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎） 当前市场对美联储维持利率不变预期高度一致，决议后政策声明及关税影响仍存不确定性，需等待通胀等数据指引。多位FOMC 成员已暗示谨慎立场，短期市场波动或难撼动美元。鲍威尔或重申央行独立性，但若经济加速走弱，政治施压将升级。美联储抵 抗降息时间越长，美元政策支撑越强，首次降息推迟至9月的预期或持续巩固美元韧性。 黄金日线与清明节前形态高度相似，均呈现"三连阴+十字星企稳+V型反攻"结构，4小时周期亦同步演绎"探底回升+二次回踩不 破低+突破前高"走势，技术面信号暗示多 ...

美国财长贝森特：我们奉行强势美元政策。 大家会看到欧洲央行降息，以使欧元回落。 与日本盟友进行实质性会谈。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasizes a strong dollar policy, indicating that the U.S. will maintain its position to support the dollar's value in the global market [1] Group 1 - The U.S. is pursuing a strong dollar policy, which is expected to influence global currency dynamics [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to lower interest rates, which may lead to a depreciation of the euro [1]