摩根大通预计下半年将有接近5000亿美元资金流入美股市场，足以推动股市再上涨5%-10%。这一预测的主要支撑力量来自散户投资者，而对冲基金和机 构投资者的增量贡献有限。 据追风交易台消息，7月11日摩根大通发表研报指出，今年美股购买力的核心引擎将是散户投资者，其持续的资金投入预计将成为下半年市场的主要支 撑。 摩根大通的预测模型显示，2025年全年，散户对股票基金的净买入总额预计为6300亿美元。截至目前，2025年上半年已累计流入约2700亿美元。这意味 着，在今年剩下的时间里，还将有3600亿美元的资金来自散户投资者。 对于近期5月和6月散户买入势头减弱的现象，报告认为无需过分担忧。这主要是因为散户在3月和4月市场下跌时大举抄底（包括买入杠杆ETF），随着市 场V型反弹，尤其是一些3倍杠杆的纳斯达克ETF价格几乎翻倍，散户进行获利了结是自然行为。报告因此认为，这只是阶段性的获利回吐，而非投资行为 的根本转变，并预计散户将从7月起恢复购买。 研报强调，尽管对冲基金等机构投资者的增持空间已然有限，且养老基金等仍在结构性卖出股票，但散户、风险平价基金和平衡型共同基金的潜在买盘力 量强大，足以抵消这些卖压，并为市 ...

沪指7月10日上涨0.48%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有18个，涨幅居前的行业为房地产、石油石 化，涨幅分别为3.19%、1.54%。银行行业今日上涨0.92%。跌幅居前的行业为汽车、传媒，跌幅分别为 0.62%、0.54%。 | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1.23 | 3.27 | 464.37 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 1.06 | 1.60 | 438.28 | | 601528 | 瑞丰银行 | 0.49 | 1.72 | 271.86 | | 001227 | 兰州银行 | 2.22 | 3.17 | 264.11 | | 601169 | 北京银行 | 0.43 | 0.77 | 176.39 | | 601818 | 光大银行 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 164.94 | | 601838 | 成都银行 | 0.54 | 0.41 | -703.18 | | 002948 | 青岛银行 | 0.58 | 1.73 | -715.86 | | 601187 | 厦门银行 | -0.78 | 3.23 | -8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% on July 10, with 18 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, particularly in real estate and oil & petrochemicals, which increased by 3.19% and 1.54% respectively [1] Industry Summary - The oil & petrochemical sector saw a 1.54% increase, with a net inflow of 525 million yuan in capital. Out of 48 stocks in this sector, 34 rose, and 1 hit the daily limit up, while 12 declined [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net capital inflow were China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with 440 million yuan, followed by China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) with 264 million yuan, and China Petroleum with 55.96 million yuan [1] - The stocks with the largest net capital outflow included Guanghui Energy, Yueyang Xingchang, and Zhongman Petroleum, with outflows of 176 million yuan, 36.79 million yuan, and 27.54 million yuan respectively [1] Stock Performance - CNOOC's stock rose by 3.59% with a turnover rate of 3.74% and a main capital flow of 440.40 million yuan [1] - Sinopec's stock increased by 1.41% with a turnover rate of 0.24% and a main capital flow of 264.20 million yuan [1] - China Petroleum's stock saw a 0.93% rise with a turnover rate of 0.08% and a main capital flow of 55.96 million yuan [1]

资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入1188.50万元，占比成交额10.51%。其中，超大单净流入196.53万 元、占成交额1.74%，大单净流入991.97万元、占成交额8.77%，中单净流出流入151.03万元、占成交额 1.34%，小单净流出1339.53万元、占成交额11.85%。 金融界消息 截至2025年7月10日收盘，格灵深瞳（688207）报收于14.54元，上涨0.41%，换手率 4.07%，成交量7.69万手，成交金额1.13亿元。 通过天眼查大数据分析，北京格灵深瞳信息技术股份有限公司共对外投资了14家企业，参与招投标项目 48次，知识产权方面有商标信息187条，专利信息129条，此外企业还拥有行政许可4个。 来源：金融界 格灵深瞳最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入767.47万元、同比减少75.02%，归属净 利润4450.40万元，同比减少64.22%，扣非净利润4692.41万元，同比减少59.38%，流动比率13.143、速 动比率12.871、资产负债率7.50%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，北京格灵深瞳信息技术股份有限公司，成立于2013年，位于北京市，是一家 ...

7月10日，沪指上涨0.48%，深成指上涨0.47%，创业板指上涨0.22%，沪深300指数上涨0.47%。可交易 A股中，上涨的有2946只，占比54.51%，下跌的2279只。 资金面上，今日主力资金全天净流出130.25亿元。其中，创业板主力资金净流出91.66亿元；科创板主力 资金净流出13.61亿元；沪深300成份股主力资金净流入73.83亿元。 分行业来看，申万所属的一级行业中，今日上涨的有18个，涨幅居前的行业为房地产、石油石化，涨幅 为3.19%、1.54%。跌幅居前的行业为汽车、传媒，跌幅为0.62%、0.54%。 行业资金流向方面，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，非银金融行业主力资金净流入规模居首，该行业 今日上涨1.37%，全天净流入资金34.70亿元，其次是房地产行业，日涨幅为3.19%，净流入资金为22.28 亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有21个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，今日下跌0.31%，全天净流出资金 48.99亿元，其次是汽车行业，今日跌幅为0.62%，净流出资金为28.12亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机 械设备、国防军工、计算机等行业。 今日各行业资金流向 | 行业 | ...

股市资金流向图：今日沪深两市主力资金净流出192.38亿元，占比1.29%；大单资金净流出171.10亿元，占比1.15%；小单资金净 流入255.80亿元，占比1.71%。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen significant activity in June, with 15 new listings raising a net amount of HKD 26.559 billion, and over 200 companies queued for IPOs [1] - In the first half of the year, the Hong Kong IPO market raised over HKD 107 billion, ranking first globally, with a 22% increase compared to the total amount raised in the previous year [2] - Major IPOs, such as CATL's listing, which raised approximately HKD 35.5 billion, have driven the market's resurgence [2] Group 2 - The influx of mainland companies seeking secondary listings in Hong Kong has contributed to the market's growth, driven by the need for international expansion and capital [3] - Hong Kong's capital market has implemented various measures to facilitate listings, including simplified processes for A-share companies [4] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 20% in the first half of the year, indicating strong market performance, with significant inflows of southbound capital totaling over HKD 730 billion [5] Group 3 - The market outlook for the second half of the year remains positive, with around 200 IPO applications received, reflecting increased interest from both local and international companies [6] - Anticipated policy adjustments, such as changes to H-share public holding requirements and flexible pricing mechanisms, could further enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market for new listings [6]

- The industry crowding monitoring model was constructed to monitor the daily crowding levels of Shenwan primary industry indices. It identified utilities and building materials as having high crowding levels, while automotive, food & beverage, and home appliances showed low crowding levels. The model also tracked significant daily changes in crowding levels for industries like agriculture, coal, and environmental protection[4] - The Z-score premium rate model was developed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. This model uses rolling calculations to identify signals and warns of potential risks of price corrections for the identified ETFs[5] - Daily net inflows for broad-based ETFs amounted to 3.77 billion yuan, with top inflows observed in CSI 1000 ETF (+7.78 billion yuan), SSE 50 ETF (+6.96 billion yuan), and CSI 300 ETF (+5.38 billion yuan). Conversely, top outflows were recorded for ChiNext ETF (-6.73 billion yuan), CSI A500 ETF (-4.06 billion yuan), and STAR 50 ETF (-3.51 billion yuan)[6] - Industry-themed ETFs saw a daily net inflow of 1.82 billion yuan, with top inflows in Military ETF (+4.01 billion yuan), Securities ETF (+2.63 billion yuan), and Defense ETF (+2.31 billion yuan). Top outflows were noted for Robotics ETF (-1.39 billion yuan), Semiconductor ETF (-1.05 billion yuan), and AI ETF (-0.99 billion yuan)[6] - Style-strategy ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of 2.29 billion yuan, with top inflows in Low Volatility Dividend ETF (+1.62 billion yuan), Low Volatility Dividend 50 ETF (+0.53 billion yuan), and Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (+0.28 billion yuan). Top outflows included CSI Dividend ETF (-0.19 billion yuan), Low Volatility Dividend ETF (-0.18 billion yuan), and Low Volatility Dividend 100 ETF (-0.15 billion yuan)[6] - Cross-border ETFs experienced a daily net outflow of 0.51 billion yuan, with top inflows in Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF (+3.84 billion yuan), Hang Seng Low Volatility Dividend ETF (+0.63 billion yuan), and S&P 500 ETF (+0.42 billion yuan). Top outflows were observed for Hang Seng Tech ETF (-1.19 billion yuan), Hong Kong Dividend ETF (-0.82 billion yuan), and Nasdaq 100 ETF (-0.69 billion yuan)[6]

一、美元帝国的裂缝 杰富瑞的Brad Bechtel在晨会上用三个词概括现状：对冲、降息、操纵。海外投资者正疯狂抛售美元资产，就像退潮时争相逃命的沙蟹；美联储的利率政策 在特朗普的推特治国下左右摇摆；而那个总把"America First"挂在嘴边的白宫主人，私下却在默许美元贬值——毕竟跨国公司的财报需要汇率红利来粉饰。 这让我想起2015年RMB汇改时的场景。当时我刚开始接触量化分析，发现一个有趣现象：每当央行释放流动性，A股总会有批个股像装了弹簧般蹿升。现在 回头看，那不过是全球资本流动大戏的序幕。 二、流动性的暗战逻辑 2025年上半年的金融圈，正上演着一场史诗级的货币变局。当ICE美元指数以11%的跌幅创下尼克松时代以来最惨烈纪录时，我在电脑前盯着那根断崖式下 跌的K线，突然想起索罗斯那句名言："历史总是重复自己，第一次是悲剧，第二次是闹剧。"但这次，连华尔街的老狐狸们都笑不出来了。 还记得五月初台币对美元飙升吗？其实当时数据显示台湾地区的外汇储备中，约1.5万亿美元资产正在悄悄调整对冲策略——这个数字相当于整个港股总市 值的1/3。 这印证了我十年来的核心观察：资本市场本质是流动性的游戏。就像黄浦江 ...

| 业 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环保 | 15.56 | 1.39 | 1.74 | 0.41 | -8.56 | | 交通运 | 34.98 | 12.34 | 0.83 | 0.09 | -8.71 | | 输 | | | | | | | 通信 | 32.75 | 6.86 | 1.89 | 0.17 | -10.48 | | 汽车 | 47.59 | 14.54 | 2.21 | -0.53 | -11.34 | | 建筑材 | 26.34 | 18.84 | 3.54 | -0.13 | -11.53 | | 料 | | | | | | | 国防军 | 29.31 | 12.06 | 2.71 | -0.73 | -23.21 | | 工 | | | | | | | 计算机 | 70.18 | -1.82 | 3.94 | -0.30 | -30.18 | | 非银金 | 74.11 | 13.90 | 1.77 | -0.61 | -31.18 | | 融 | | | | | | | 基础化 | 69.95 | -1.2 ...