期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 昨日高开低走，短期仍需等待回踩 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 05 月 08 日 核心逻辑小结： 近期宏观信息较多，但整体符合预期，其中美国最新一期就业数据好于市场 预期，美联储表态鸽派，令欧美股指普遍呈现上涨态势。此外，中美贸易关 系有阶段性缓和迹象，这使得国际避险情绪在假期内有所降温。A 股方面， 节前股指出现了小幅回调，但回调幅度弱于预期，代表资金交易热度尚未完 全消退。另一方面，4 月公布的经济数据与财报业绩表明股指盈利周期继续 处于筑底阶段，伴随着 zzj 等政策预期的落地，后续市场情绪将面临一段空 窗期。因此，5 月股指震荡市依旧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner but is more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. The bond market has been volatile in the past two weeks due to weak fundamentals constraining interest rate increases and high short - term interest rates constraining decreases. In the future, monetary easing is the general trend, and the supply pressure of government bonds in the second quarter is similar to that in the first quarter. Interest rates are unlikely to break upward significantly, and there is a possibility of a downward break driven by fundamental data [6][23]. Summary by Related Content Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market continued its volatile pattern, with limited changes in interest rates across all tenors. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond rates rose slightly by 1.1bps and 2.3bps to 1.66% and 1.93% respectively. The money market continued to ease, and the certificate of deposit (CD) rate remained flat at 1.76%. The credit bond interest rate also increased slightly. The bond market has been in a narrow - range volatile stage for two consecutive weeks, with the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuating narrowly around 1.63% - 1.67% [1][9]. Factors Constraining Interest Rate Movements Constraints on Interest Rate Increases - Fundamental pressures have constrained the upward space of interest rates. Due to trade conflicts, external demand risks have increased, and domestic demand has also shown signs of weakening. High - frequency data has weakened since April, and indicators such as EPMI and BCI have declined. However, the slowdown in high - frequency data and sentiment indices is relatively gentle, and the short - term support for interest rate decreases from the fundamentals is insufficient [2][10]. Constraints on Interest Rate Decreases - High short - term interest rates and the non - implementation of loose monetary policy have constrained the downward space of interest rates. After the intensification of external shocks, the market once expected rapid implementation of loose monetary policy, but subsequent policies were more passive and cooperative. The 2 - year Treasury bond rate first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, and the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to the lowest level in recent years, reflecting a decline in the market's short - term expectation of monetary easing [3][11]. Breakout Directions of Interest Rates Limited Upward Breakout Possibility - Interest rate constraints mainly come from short - term interest rates. Although monetary policy is currently passive, it does not mean that it will not be loose. The Politburo meeting emphasized moderately loose monetary policy. The money market center has shifted downward, and the CD rate has remained stable. The spread between CDs and Treasury bonds has narrowed, limiting the upward space of short - term Treasury bonds and the pressure on the overall interest rate curve. From the perspective of bond supply, the pressure in the second quarter is only slightly higher than that in the first quarter, with estimated net local bond financing of 4.4 trillion yuan in the second quarter, compared with 4.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter [4][13][15]. Possibility of Downward Breakout - With changes in the fundamentals, there is a possibility of an interest rate downward breakout, with fundamental data being the core concern. In April, industrial product prices declined significantly, indicating a further decline in the PPI year - on - year. Falling prices will lead to a relatively certain decline in nominal interest rates. Although high - frequency economic indicators show a slowdown in economic volume, the extent has not significantly exceeded expectations. The overall impact amplitude needs to be determined by subsequent fundamental data. If the fundamental pressure is large enough, reserve policies, including monetary policy, will be introduced, leading to a downward breakout of interest rates [5][18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. Since the probability of an interest rate downward breakout is higher, long - term bonds are still advantageous, and long - term interest rates are expected to reach new lows [6][23].

以下文章来源于申万宏源固收研究 ，作者申万宏源固收研究 申万宏源固收研究 . 诚挚邀请贵单位人员参加会议。为便于会务安排，请您于4月23日前通过扫描页面左下方二维码报名。 上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司 会议时间：2025年4月24日（周四）13:30-17:00 会议地点：深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店（深圳市福田区福华一路28号） 会议邀请函： https://m.meetingmeet.com/h5/meetingindex/home/6c9672ddb1a14f36b23f06309af8fbce 会议议程： 4月24日 13:30-17:00 高波动债券震荡市下的投资策略探讨 13:30-14:10 《 资金中枢重定位，曲线牛陡的做多窗口期 》 黄伟平 申万宏源研究首席分析师 14:10-14:50 《 "条件概率"视角下的期限利差新解 》 栾强 申万宏源研究资深高级分析师 14:50-15:30 《 结构性货币政策工具的降息空间 》 杨琳琳 申万宏源研究高级分析师 15:30-16:10 《 理财买债特征与展望 》 王哲一 申万宏源研究分析师 16:10-17:00 《固收圆桌》 基金公司、券商自营等资深 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源固收研究 ，作者申万宏源固收研究 申万宏源固收研究 . 申万宏源证券研究所债券研究部 敬启者： 2025年以来，债券市场投资情绪迅速转向谨慎甚至短期悲观又再度转向乐观。1 -2 月资金紧是债市运行主要矛盾， 3月资金放松但债市 仍自发调整，4月美国逆全球化关税政策再度放大债市波动，市场行情明显加速。本次论坛交流会聚焦"高波动债券震荡市下的投资策略探 讨"，盛情邀请您参加！ 会议安排 https://m.meetingmeet.com/h5/meetingindex/home/6c9672ddb1a14f36b23f06309af8fbce 诚挚邀请贵单位人员参加会议。为便于会务安排，请您于4月23日前通过扫描页面左下方二维码报名。 上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司 (隶属于申万宏源证券有限公司) 2025年4月 会议时间：2025年4月24日（周四）13:30-17:00 会议地点：深圳好日子皇冠假日酒店（深圳市福田区福华一路28号） 会议邀请函： 会议议程： 4月24日 13:30-17:00 高波动债券震荡市下的投资策略探讨 13:30-14:10 《 资金中枢重定位，曲线牛陡的做多窗 ...