4月18日，经国务院同意，商务部印发《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点工作方案》，并制定了新一 轮任务清单，明确了155项试点任务。其中，"推进符合实体经济发展需要的产能预售、订单交易等交易 模式创新"被列为重点任务之一，同时也为大宗商品现货交易平台和产业电商平台推进模式创新指明了 方向。围绕业界关心的热点问题，期货日报与期报传媒（北京）有限公司将召开"产能预售及订单交易 合规创新研讨会"，从理论到实践深度剖析这两种业务模式的合规性和风险点，为行业答疑解惑。 把握政策机遇，合规开展产能预售、订单交易，并结合产业优势发掘创新点，要求从业人员不仅对交易 模式有深刻的理解，更对风险点有足够的把握。因此，在开展模式创新之前必须做足功课，反复思考： 什么是产能预售？订单交易与中远期交易有何本质区别？如何区分这几种交易模式？其中潜在哪些风险 点？怎样根据产业特色进行模式创新？如何吸引客源？ 本次研讨会将邀请行业专家通过前沿的理论指导、真实的案例解析、宝贵的经验分享，为与会嘉宾带来 一场生动的实操课，共同探讨创新交易模式、提升服务能力的新方法、新路径。 会议将于5月27日在青岛国际能源交易中心召开。国内大宗商品领域可信仓单、 ...

产能预售与订单交易模式通过"以销定产"优化资源配置，已成为大宗商品领域转型升级的关键抓手。在 业内人士看来，进一步取得实质性的政策支持，并在此基础上不断完善相关法律规范和监管制度，有利 于推动交易平台加强模式应用和创新。 从浙江国际油气交易中心的"产能预售+稳价订单"模式，到天津国际油气交易中心推出的"LNG订单 通"，近年来，在政策引导下，不少地方交易场所都在积极探索产能预售和订单交易模式创新。 2022年3月发布的《中共中央 国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》提出"加快推进大宗商品期 现货市场建设，不断完善交易规则"，为进一步开展产能预售和订单交易等模式创新奠定了坚实的制度 基础，强调"打破地方保护和市场分割，促进大宗商品跨区域流通"，并提出"推动现货市场与金融市场 深度融合"，为订单交易模式创新提供了良好的政策环境。 2023年9月发布的《浦东新区推进大宗商品贸易稳增长促创新的实施方案》提到，支持大宗商品贸易企 业开展虚拟工厂、产能预售等业务模式创新，推动采销一体、贸工一体、仓运配一体建设，强化期现结 合、价格发现、供需匹配功能。 产能预售、订单交易的核心在于通过预先锁定未来产能和销售，帮助买卖双 ...

不过，现房销售在逐渐推行的过程，也是房地产企业优胜劣汰和转向新模式的过程。现房销售模式下， 房企为了吸引购房者，在项目规划、设计、施工建设等环节将更加注重品质，现房销售更加考验企业的 产品力，拥有高产品力的房企在未来也将获得更好的发展机遇。 近年来，全国多地探索推行现房销售，特别是2022年以来，全国超30个省(市)出台现房销售相关政策， 对部分项目进行现房销售试点，或出台配套支持政策，如延长土地出让金缴纳期限、进行购房者契税补 贴、提高公积金贷款额度等。 近日，河南省信阳市住房和城乡建设局官网发布了《关于加强商品房预售管理工作的若干措施(试行)》 的批前公示，规定在文件印发后新出让土地开发的商品房，一律实行现房销售，消息出来后引发市场的 高度关注。 过去，关于取消商品房预售制的风声曾让业界"颤抖"。商品房预售制度下，房企开发建设所需资金一部 分来自于银行开发贷等金融支持，一部分来自于预售款。预售制度下开发企业使用开发贷等融资时间较 短，预售开盘后即可逐步偿还贷款，银行资金回流速度相对较快。现房销售因为周转时间拉长、成本增 加，更考验房企的资金实力。由此可见，转向现房销售后，企业开发贷使用时间延长，金融机构配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent push for the sale of existing homes in various regions, including Xinyang, is seen as a significant shift in the real estate market, aiming to address issues related to the pre-sale system and enhance buyer protection [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Trends in Real Estate Sales - The Xinyang Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau has mandated that all newly sold land must follow the existing home sales model, indicating a broader trend across multiple regions [2]. - Over 30 provinces and cities have introduced policies related to existing home sales since late 2022, leading to a projected 19.1% year-on-year increase in existing home sales area, reaching approximately 300 million square meters in 2024 [3]. - The existing home sales model is expected to account for 30.84% of total sales, reflecting a significant shift in market dynamics [3]. Group 2: Implications for Real Estate Developers - The transition to existing home sales will increase the financial pressure on real estate companies, as the sales cycle will extend, leading to slower cash flow and potentially impacting market stability [2][5]. - Developers will need to adapt to a new profit model that relies more on product quality and premium pricing rather than rapid sales [4][5]. - The existing home sales model requires developers to have stronger financial capabilities, as the cash recovery period will extend by 2 to 3 years compared to the pre-sale system [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Support Policies - Industry experts suggest that the shift to existing home sales should be gradual to avoid market disruptions, with recommendations for policies to be established at the time of land transfer [7]. - Various regions are implementing supportive measures, such as extending land payment deadlines and offering tax rebates to stimulate demand for existing homes [7].

各位早上好今天是5月14号星期三欢迎来到又一期的摩根士丹利周期论鉴我是中国基础材料行业的分析师David徐卓凡那么在开始之前我要例行先读一个disclaimer请注意本会议仅面向摩根士丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体尽请推出本次会议随后与我们联系了解进一步详情 请注意本次会议的内容和您的问题可能会被录音那在今天的webcast呢我们首先由交易行业的首席骞雷和大家分享一下上周非常火爆的ChinaFest会议的小节包括这个春秋顺丰和G2等公司 接下来我们由地产行业的首席Stefan和我们聊一下房地产取消预售制度可能对地产开发商以及物管的前瞻风险最后保险业的分析师Rick会做一些近况的更新以及对二季度保险的一个展望那么在会议过程中您可以随时在屏幕左方的提问消息框里向我们发送您的问题 不多做赘述现在我们把时间先交给倩蕾谢谢大家好我是倩蕾那我就给大家讲一下就是我们上周开China VICE会议包括之前也是一级报其实是在4月底集中的这个出完了给大家讲一下就是我们从这个 易记报和ChinaBank会议之后所了解到的一些行业的新的变化吧我觉得比较着重可以提醒大家的是航空因为我们觉得航空跟市场聊下来还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing call for the cancellation of the pre-sale system in the real estate market is driven by issues such as quality problems, financial risks for developers, and the need for a shift towards selling completed properties instead of pre-sales [1][8][9]. Group 1: Current Trends in Real Estate Sales - Over 30 provinces and cities in China have introduced policies for selling completed properties since 2022, with significant support measures like tax subsidies and increased loan limits [3][12]. - Xinyang, Henan Province, has become the first city in 2023 to implement a comprehensive policy mandating that all new land developments must sell completed properties [3][7]. - The new measures aim to tighten pre-sale permissions, regulate pre-sale funds, and ensure project quality, reflecting a shift towards a more stable real estate market [7][12]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges of the Pre-sale System - The pre-sale system, established in the 1990s, has led to rapid industry growth but has also exposed significant risks, including financial mismanagement by developers and potential project failures [8][9]. - Issues such as delayed delivery, quality discrepancies, and the risk of properties being sold multiple times have raised concerns among buyers [8][9]. - The financial instability caused by the reliance on pre-sale funds has implications for the broader financial system, potentially affecting banks and local governments [9][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Real Estate Sales - The trend towards selling completed properties is expected to continue, with a projected increase in the share of completed property sales, reaching approximately 30.84% in 2024 [12]. - Experts believe that this shift will not only reduce risks for buyers but also encourage developers to focus on quality and financial management, moving away from high-leverage operations [12][13]. - The implementation of completed property sales is seen as a crucial step towards creating a sustainable and low-risk real estate market, aligning with future development trends [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a "new and old distinction" principle in promoting the sale of completed properties in Xinyang is a significant shift in China's real estate market, aiming to address the drawbacks of the pre-sale system and enhance buyer confidence [1][5][10]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Xinyang Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau has introduced measures to strengthen the management of pre-sale housing, requiring new projects to reach a construction completion stage before applying for pre-sale permits [5][6]. - The new policy mandates that all newly sold land in the central urban area must adopt a completed property sales model, marking Xinyang as the first city to fully implement this approach [6][10]. Group 2: Market Impact - The shift to completed property sales is expected to reduce risks for buyers, ensuring that the quality of construction is visible and minimizing issues related to unfinished projects [6][10]. - Despite the policy changes, the immediate impact on Xinyang's real estate market may be limited due to existing inventory pressures and a slow market adjustment phase [7][11]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The transition from a pre-sale system, which has been in place for nearly 30 years, reflects the need for reform in the real estate sector as it moves into a "stock era" [8][10]. - The ongoing exploration of completed property sales is part of a broader trend to optimize the regulatory framework surrounding housing sales, with over 30 provinces implementing similar policies since late 2022 [10][11]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The future landscape of the real estate market is expected to feature a coexistence of both pre-sale and completed property sales, allowing for flexibility in response to market conditions [12]. - The successful implementation of completed property sales will require careful consideration of supporting policies, including financing and regulatory adjustments, to ensure a balanced market supply and demand [11][12].

"安得广厦千万间，大庇天下寒士俱欢颜。"杜甫的千年喟叹，道尽了中国人对安居的渴望。 但在房地产预售制大行其道的今天，这句诗却成了无数购房者的心病——期房烂尾、质量缩水、资金挪用，这些问题像一把把悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之 剑。 不过好消息来了，5月13日，河南信阳传来一个重磅消息：新出让土地开发的商品房，一律实行现房销售！ 新出让土地的项目，必须等房子盖好了才能卖。这招"釜底抽薪"，直接切断了开发商"空手套白狼"的资金链游戏。 以前，开发商拿地后只要盖到25%进度就能卖房回款，现在得盖到封顶甚至现房才能卖，资金压力陡增。 有人可能会问：这不是断了开发商的活路吗？其 这一记政策重拳，堪称房地产市场的"刮骨疗毒"，也让无数购房者看到了曙光。 政策背后的"刮骨疗毒" 信阳这次政策调整，可不是心血来潮。 近年来，信阳房地产市场暗流涌动，延期交付、楼盘烂尾的消息时有耳闻。 2019年的一次问题楼盘化解会议上，当地领导就直言："对恶意抽逃资金的开发商，要采取强制手段！" 可见，预售制带来的风险早已让地方政府如坐针毡。 政策核心就四个字：现房销售。 实不然，这恰恰是在倒逼行业洗牌。 那些靠高杠杆、快周转的房企，这次恐怕要"裸泳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The topic of "immediate housing sales" has gained market attention as multiple regions actively pilot this approach, with supporting policies continuously improving, leading to a steady increase in market share [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Development - The pre-sale system for commercial housing originated in Hong Kong and was introduced to mainland China in the 1990s, becoming mainstream and helping real estate companies quickly recover funds and enhance development efficiency [3]. - However, as the market evolved, issues such as delivery risks and quality disputes associated with the pre-sale system became prominent, prompting the pilot of immediate housing sales to cool down land acquisition during market overheating and ensure delivery amid industry risks [3]. Group 2: Regional Pilot Programs - Hainan was the first province in China to implement immediate housing sales policies at the provincial level, mandating that newly sold land for residential construction must adopt this sales method since March 2020 [3]. - Beijing expanded the pilot scope for immediate housing sales in concentrated land auctions starting in 2021, and after optimizing the concentrated land supply system in 2023, some plots still included a "competitive immediate housing sales" segment [3]. - Shenzhen restarted its exploration of immediate housing sales in August 2023, with plans for all plots to require immediate sales by October 2024 [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - Both central and local governments are collaboratively supporting the pilot of immediate housing sales, with over 30 provinces and cities initiating trials or issuing supportive policies since the end of 2022 [3]. - Cities like Hefei and Zhengzhou have explicitly defined pilot projects, while places like Ganzhou, Jiujiang, and Shandong have introduced measures such as extending land transfer payment deadlines, tax subsidies, and increasing public housing loan limits [3]. - The concept of immediate housing sales was systematically proposed for the first time at the national housing and urban-rural development work conference in January 2023, with several provinces like Shandong and Anhui confirming their pilot programs [3]. Group 4: Market Data and Trends - The proportion of immediate housing sales is gradually increasing, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting that the sales area for immediate housing in 2024 is approximately 300 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, accounting for 30.84% of total sales [4]. - The market share for immediate housing sales from 2020 to 2023 was recorded at 12.7%, 13%, 17.3%, and 22.5% respectively [4]. Group 5: Industry Implications - The director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, Zhang Bo, believes that immediate housing sales represent a significant trend for the future of the real estate incremental market and are crucial for promoting high-quality transformation of real estate companies, although comprehensive implementation requires multi-dimensional supporting reforms [4]. - Currently, the timing for full implementation is deemed immature, as rapid execution may elevate market risks and impact the industry negatively [4]. - For real estate companies, immediate housing sales extend the capital recovery cycle and increase pressure, potentially reducing new housing supply in the short term and delaying market recovery [4]. - In the long run, immediate housing sales are expected to enhance product quality, compel companies to optimize design, materials, and amenities, and promote industry competition, accelerating consolidation within the sector [4].

本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 （ID：guominjinglve） ，作者：凯风，题图来自：AI生成 预售制、公摊面积，都到了变革时刻。 近期，全国已有20多个地市发布推进相关文件，提出向现房销售逐步过渡，逐步推进取消公摊面积。 在全国范围内，"推广商品房现房销售制度"也被纳入讨论，有媒体表示"现房销售进入倒计时"。 房地产预售制，是否到了逆转之时？ 改革乃至取消预售制，已是大势所趋。 公摊面积、预售制、土地批租制，是房地产制度的三大基石，也是维系黄金时代楼市上涨的重要支撑。 如今，房地产供求关系发生重大变化，市场形势逆转，公摊面积、预售制不能再原地踏步。 与取消公摊面积相比，取消预售制影响更为深远、阻力更大。 但无论是政策还是市场，都已出现积极信号。 以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 早在去年7月，重要改革决定就已提出，"改革房地产开发融资方式和商品房预售制度"。 去年底召开的全国住房工作会议表示："大力推进商品住房销售制度改革，有力有序推行现房销售，优化预 售资金监管"。 近期金融管理部门在发布会上表示，"将加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度 ...