【供给端：在产蛋鸡存栏呈上行趋势】截至 4 月末，全国在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.29 亿只，3 月末为 13.18 亿只，2 月末为 13.06 亿只，环比增幅 0.8%，连续 4 个月增长，去年同期 12.4 亿只，同比增幅 7.2%。因 24 年五月起养殖利润较好，下半年补栏积极性回暖并延续至今。部分样本企业补栏数据推 测，今年二季度存栏量预计仍有小幅增长，这一趋势或至少持续到二季度末，随后可能维持在较高水 平。 需求端：4 月截止 5 月 1 日的前四周，代表销区的鸡蛋周度销量约 8772 吨，3 月为 8772 吨，2 月 为 6942 吨，24 年 4 月约 7674 吨。4 月销量环比同比均有增量，清明节后销量不错，但预估部分为低价 囤货需求，未在终端消化。4 月 30 日至 5 月 3 日，全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长约 5.5%，对比去 年五一5 天同比增长 2.1%，利于鸡蛋节假日消费需求。后续关注五一后补库力度，若不温不火，或需 求供应同步增长且供应增幅更大，5 - 6 月需求退潮后市场不乐观。 观点：现货方面，需求旺季不旺， 库存多待消化，5 月或偏弱运行，月末关注端午备货情况；期货 ...

【供给端：在产蛋鸡存栏呈上行趋势】截至 4 月末，全国在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.29 亿只，3 月末为 13.18 亿只，2 月末为 13.06 亿只，环比增幅 0.8%，连续 4 个月增长，去年同期 12.4 亿只，同比增幅 7.2%。未来，因 24 年五月起养殖利润较好，24 年下半年补栏积极性回暖并延续至今。部分样本企业补 栏数据推测，今年二季度存栏量或有小幅增长，当下养殖利润看，这一趋势或至少持续到二季度末，随 后或维持较高水平。 需求端，4 月截至 5 月 1 日的前四周，代表销区的鸡蛋周度销量约 8772 吨，3 月 为 8772 吨，2 月为 6942 吨，24 年 4 月约 7674 吨。4 月销量环比同比有增量，清明节后销量不错，但 预估部分为低价囤货需求，未在终端消化，从五一前销量变化不大推测得出。4 月 30 日至 5 月 3 日共 4 天，全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长约 5.5%，对比去年五一 5 天同比增长 2.1%，利于鸡蛋节假日消 费需求。后续关注五一后补库力度，若不温不火，或需求供应同步增长，供应增幅更大，5-6 月需求退 潮后，市场不乐观。 观点方面，现货需求旺季不旺，库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in egg futures prices is attributed to rising feed costs driven by trade issues and a subsequent increase in spot egg prices, which has provided support for futures contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - From April 1 to April 16, egg futures prices increased by 7.4%, with the main contract reaching 3078 yuan per 500 kg, up 2.87% on April 16 [2][3]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas rose from 3.06 yuan per jin to approximately 3.4 yuan per jin since early April [3][4]. - The main contract's open interest reached 173,000 lots, the highest in three years, indicating intense market speculation [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Egg consumption demand has been consistently increasing, supported by a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with restaurant income rising by 4.7% in the first quarter [5]. - Despite a 5.21% year-on-year decline in egg sales volume to 68,210 tons, significant increases were noted in major markets like Beijing and Guangdong, with Beijing's supply up 19.1% [5]. - The inventory levels of laying hens remain high, with 1.318 billion hens recorded in March, a 6.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable supply [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding future price trends, emphasizing the need to monitor feed costs and the culling of laying hens, which could impact supply [7]. - Current egg prices are near the breakeven point for poultry farming businesses, suggesting that producers may not actively cull hens despite rising prices [7][9]. - The outlook for egg prices post-September appears weaker, with concerns about potential losses in the poultry industry by 2026, although optimism remains for 2025 [9].