Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently dropped below $88,000, but Charles Hoskinson of Cardano predicts a rise to $250,000 by late 2026, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook despite current market challenges [1][2]. Market Analysis - Hoskinson describes the upcoming two quarters as a "downside clearing" period, indicating that the market is currently processing macroeconomic pressures such as tariff uncertainties and uneven economic momentum [2]. - He emphasizes that historical patterns show significant price increases for Bitcoin 400 to 600 days post-halving events, positioning 2026 as a potentially strong year for Bitcoin [3]. Institutional Participation - The current Bitcoin cycle is characterized by substantial institutional investment, with major firms like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley contributing to demand, contrasting with previous cycles that were primarily retail-driven [4][3]. Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price has broken below a multi-year trendline, indicating a deeper corrective phase rather than a simple pullback, with current trading levels significantly below key moving averages [8][12]. - The next major support level is identified around $75,000, which is crucial for determining future price movements [12]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite the structural breakdown indicated by the loss of the multi-year trendline, there is a continued influx of long-term capital from institutions and ETF issuers, suggesting a potential accumulation phase rather than a complete market exhaustion [13][14]. - Hoskinson's perspective reframes the current market conditions as an opportunity for institutional accumulation, with the $75,000 level serving as a potential entry point for future growth towards the anticipated 2026 trajectory [14].

The 4-year cycle has provided the #Bitcoin top!It's probably the most common question and debate. Where are we in the cycle? Did Bitcoin just see its peak of this cycle?Ultimately, it could be. Definitely. The rally to $125K happened just days before the government shutdown, and, since then, markets have been going down substantially.However, this cycle has been proven to act differently. The ETF has added $60B in fresh liquidity into the Bitcoin markets, through which a new all-time high was created prior ...

Bitcoin Halving Overview - Bitcoin halving 对 supply, demand, and price 产生影响 [1] - Bitcoin halving 对 mining 产生影响 [1] Investor Implications - Bitcoin halving 对投资者很重要 [1] Key Events - 报告讨论了 next halving occurs 的时间 [1]

Mining Industry Challenges - Bitcoin挖矿利润率因能源成本上升和竞争加剧而下降 [1] - 2028年比特币减半后，区块奖励将减少至约1.5 BTC，多数矿业公司可能难以维持盈利，除非费用或价格上涨 [1] Survival Strategies - 只有拥有低成本电力资源的矿企或转向AI和高性能计算(HPC)的矿企才可能生存 [1]

Market Analysis - The altcoin cycle is not over, and this quarter will surprise many people [1] - Many base their thesis purely on time and the Bitcoin halving [1] - The marginal impact of miners is significantly less than institutions [1] - Institutions base their decisions on macroeconomic factors, so there has essentially not been any bull run at all [1] - A bull run starts in this quarter [2]

Group 1 - Canaan (NASDAQ: CAN) is a leading Bitcoin mining-related stock, experiencing significant volatility in its share price, which often moves independently of Bitcoin's core value [1] - As of the latest update, Canaan's stock has decreased by 16% since the previous day's close and has declined 34% year-to-date, although it has increased by 58% over the past 12 months, highlighting its volatility [2] - Factors contributing to Canaan's recent decline include a drop in Bitcoin prices, the recent Bitcoin halving, and rising power costs globally, which are exerting fundamental pressures on the company [4] Group 2 - Analysts from B. Riley suggest that Canaan is unlikely to achieve profitability this year, projecting profitability only by 2027, with current net margins at negative 77% and return on equity at negative 92% [5] - Despite announcing strong orders for new, more efficient Bitcoin mining machines, Canaan's stock has not seen the anticipated surge, indicating investor concerns regarding the company's fundamentals [6][8] - The current sentiment suggests that investors may prefer direct exposure to cryptocurrencies or spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than investing in crypto miners like Canaan, due to unfavorable fundamentals [7]

Market Cycle Analysis - Bitcoin halving occurred 556 days ago [1] - Historically, market tops tend to form around the 500th day post-halving [1] - Current cycle shows no top signals based on Crypto Market Cycle Indicators [1] - 0 out of 30 (0%) top signals have been triggered [1]

BRYAN JOHNSON: “Last Bitcoin halving is in 2140. I’m gonna be here for that and make sure you are too.” https://t.co/NWoa8aCdk3 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, reached over $126,000 for the first time on October 6, 2023, but has since seen a 9% decline as of October 13, 2023, raising questions about its future performance in 2025 and 2026 [1] - Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin is likely to experience a significant crash of approximately 66% in 2026, following previous trends of substantial declines every four years [2][4] Price Patterns - Bitcoin has experienced major price crashes in 2014 (61%), 2018 (73%), and 2022 (64%), averaging a 66% decline, with these crashes occurring every four years, suggesting a similar event is expected in 2026 [4] - The mechanics of Bitcoin differ from stocks, as it operates on a four-year cycle influenced by mining rewards and supply dynamics, which are not applicable to traditional stock markets [5][8] Supply Dynamics - Bitcoin mining rewards are halved approximately every four years, affecting the circulating supply and creating significant supply-demand disruptions [6] - Historically, Bitcoin's price tends to rise in the years surrounding the halving event, but the fourth year often sees a major pullback as demand balances with the slowed supply growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - VanEck maintains its perspective of Bitcoin as "digital gold," highlighting its scarcity and increasing adoption, while expressing optimism about its value trajectory into 2026 [1][6]. Bitcoin Price Projections - VanEck suggests that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high (ATH) in 2026, following the historical post-halving cycle pattern, with potential record-breaking gains expected between late 2025 and 2026 [3][6]. - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is still considered valid, indicating that the crypto market has room for growth as it approaches the next year [2]. Bitcoin Scarcity and Halvings - Bitcoin's capped supply of 21 million coins and the programmed halvings, which reduce block rewards by 50% approximately every four years, are emphasized as key factors that slow issuance [4]. - The upcoming halving in April 2024 is expected to precede significant returns, with analysts predicting that this event could drive Bitcoin towards new highs over the next 12–18 months [4]. Institutional Adoption - Bitcoin's adoption has surged beyond small online communities, with estimated institutional holdings reaching $196 billion by mid-2025, as it becomes a hedge against inflation and a non-correlated asset [5][6]. - The growing presence of Bitcoin in institutional portfolios reinforces its role as "digital gold" [6]. Innovations in Bitcoin Ecosystem - Innovations in Layer 2 scaling, particularly the Lightning Network and the upcoming RGB protocol, are highlighted as developments that could expand Bitcoin's use cases into tokenized assets like equities and real estate [7]. - The RGB protocol is seen as a potential catalyst for new opportunities for innovation and growth within the Bitcoin ecosystem [7].