Geopolitical Implications - Kurdish PKK is expected to lay down arms, potentially signaling a significant step towards ending the conflict in Turkey [1]

Market Scenarios - The market's response to recent events is smaller than many forecasts, suggesting the market is pricing in different scenarios [1] - One scenario involves escalation and risks leading down a difficult path [2] - Another scenario envisions the beginning of the end of Iran's isolation, potentially leading to a solution regarding sanctions and risks [2] - A wider solution could extend to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially resolving multiple conflicts [3] - The market perceives two major scenarios: a potentially very good outcome and a very bad outcome, creating a stalemate [3]