BDA Capital Partners CEO Barbara Duran and Aerial Investments Vice Chairman Charlie Burbins join us now. Guys, happy Friday. Barb, how much do you factor in the president's saber rattling on tariffs here with the markets, big tech, Nvidia all hitting these record levels and perhaps the risk rising again that maybe this time uh he really is going to be uh serious about these higher tariff levels.Yeah. Well, John, the risk is always there, but I think the market is clearly telling us that they think it's a lo ...

All right, so we're getting a flurry of tariff proposals from the president. We had Howard Letic our air yesterday. Also talking about potential progress when it comes to moves with the EU.What does this all mean for the market and also for the Fed. Does it change the math at all when it comes to your thesis when it comes to the market. So, it doesn't change our math at all as it relates to Fed policy and the path forward for rate cuts.We're still believing as the Fed continues to push that there's dovish f ...

究竟会是谁来接替鲍威尔？在所有的潜在人选中，现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）目前是公认的"最稳妥"选择。 作为一位既不鹰派也不鸽派、而是严格遵循数据导向的货币政策制定者，沃勒凭借其卓越的思想领导力 和敏锐的经济判断力，赢得了市场和政策界的广泛认可。 研究人士指出，沃勒既能获得市场信任，又符合特朗普寻求降低十年期国债收益率的诉求，其提名有望 被债券市场积极定价，避免任命极端人选可能导致的收益率飙升风险。值得注意的是，沃勒此前表示赞 同7月就开始降息，这一鸽派言论被视为向特朗普递"投名状"。 从"软着陆"到"情景分析"，沃勒的判断力屡屡领先 沃勒自2020年加入美联储理事会以来，在货币政策上的立场始终不偏不倚。他既不是一味强调宽松政策 的"鸽派"，也不是主张强力加息的"鹰派"，而是始终紧跟数据，做出准确判断。 2021年通胀突然加速时，几乎所有主流预测机构都措手不及，而沃勒则迅速意识到这波通胀并非短期现 象。在当时的讲话中，他直言市场和政策制定者"选择性地忽视"了一些关键数据，例如二手车价格的飙 升，而这最终成为了通胀失控的"煤矿金丝雀"——一个早期预警信号。 2022年，美 ...

3 July 2025 | 8:18PM BST Global Rates Trader Short Runway to Rally Our economists' revised Fed baseline, which implies both earlier cuts and a lower terminal rate, points to a lower range for US yields across the curve. We now expect 10y US yields at 4.20% at end-2025 vs 4.50% previously, with a modestly steeper curve the likely result. We continue to think that a larger sustained rally would likely require a weaker growth outlook than our forecasts suggest, but ongoing data uncertainty makes it hard to rul ...

July 3, 2025 06:19 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America An Opportunity to Buy the Supply and Add to Steepeners The nonfarm payroll report, carried by state and local government education-related jobs, and the low unemployment rate suggest a dynamic aligned with our economist's view for lower US potential growth and a lower equilibrium rate leading to more Fed cuts. Stay long and in curve steepeners. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matthew Hornbach S ...

M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matthew Hornbach Strategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Martin W Tobias, CFA Strategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 Francesco Grechi Strategist Francesco.Grechi@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1009 Aryaman Singh Strategist Aryaman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1993 Eli P Carter Strategist Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703 June 27, 2025 09:16 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Watch the Economic Data, Not the US Equity Ma ...

But yields are sinking today even as we're talking about the long-term fiscal sustainability of the US government. Maybe Rick Santelli who is back now can explain. Hi Rick. Hi.you know whether it's the month end quarter end halfyear end effects or just in general as the last guest Steve pointed out and so appropriately sometimes markets don't trade on fundamentals and on the interest rate side there has been a global propensity for lower rates but everything you said is true Kelly this administration's budg ...

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - The discussion revolves around investment strategies concerning treasuries, particularly the 20-year Bond ETF (TLT), and European bonds [1] - The firm expresses reservations about the back end of the yield curve, considering alternatives like ECB rate cuts or seeking opportunities at the long end [2] - Tactical buying of the long end of the yield curve is considered around quarter-end [2] - Long-duration assets can be helpful if geopolitical risks resurface or inflation declines [5] - Currently, equities, especially growth equities with a 19% ROE, are favored over long-duration bonds due to inflation concerns and tariff issues [5][6] Duration & Hedging - Duration is viewed as no longer a reliable hedge [4] - TLT is considered an efficient vehicle for gaining duration when needed, although not currently favored [3] Economic Factors - Inflation expectations and potential tariff problems are key themes influencing market movements [5]

My biggest advice for the early stages of building a sales team is thinking through it as if you were thinking through a manufacturing supply chain. And this idea comes from the HBR article of the sales learning curve. And the earliest stage of building a sales team is not looking for traditional coin operated reps that are going to come in and just build the sales playbook for you.The earliest stages are actually about learning. Similar to how if you were bringing a manufacturing product to market, like yo ...

They've been signaling basically to ignore the inflation data for now because it's either a lagging indicator or has the potential to change. The one thing that could make the Fed move quicker would be a weakening of the labor market. But as Ed said, the important thing to note as as bond investors and credit investors is the next move is still going to be lower rates.I am curious, Steve, when we talk about this idea of the next move and if it is lower and you have a market that at least right now seems to ...