Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is enhancing investor confidence through operational momentum and significant balance sheet improvements [1][4] - The company has made substantial progress in refinancing its debt, which is expected to lower net interest expenses and simplify its capital structure [2][4] Financial Performance - In Q2 of fiscal 2025, Carnival prepaid $350 million of its $1.4 billion notes due in 2026 and refinanced the remaining amount with senior unsecured notes maturing in 2031, projected to reduce net interest expense by over $20 million through early 2026 [1][2] - Total debt as of May 31, 2025, was $27.3 billion, a slight decrease from $27.48 billion reported on Nov. 30, 2024 [2] - The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 3.7x in Q2, down from 4.1x in Q1, indicating effective deleveraging [3][7] Market Position - CCL shares have surged 62.1% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 36.2% [5] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 13.53X, below the industry average of 19.88X, suggesting it is undervalued compared to peers [8] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival's fiscal 2025 earnings per share has been revised upward from $1.87 to $1.98, reflecting strong analyst confidence [10] - Projections indicate a 39.4% rise in fiscal 2025 earnings for Carnival, compared to expected increases of 30.9%, 11.5%, and 16.5% for competitors Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise, and OneSpaWorld, respectively [11]

Market Trends - Investment-grade companies in the US are increasingly seeking faster debt sales [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights Athene Holding Ltd. as an often overlooked security, specifically its 6.35% Dep Sh Fix/Float Non-Cumul Pref Shares Ser A (ATH.PR.A) [1] - The purpose of the article is to draw attention to investment opportunities in Athene Holding Ltd. [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial performance data or metrics related to Athene Holding Ltd. [2]

Sovereign Rating - Moody's Investors Service 将阿曼的主权信用评级从垃圾级上调至投资级 [1] - 这是阿曼在不到一年内获得的第二次投资评级上调 [1]

Just remind us, what was the situation like in Greece a decade ago. Well, I think it's worth reminding ourselves why we're talking about this now is because exactly ten years ago this week, there was a referendum organised in Greece on the terms of a new bailout package organised by the then leftwing Syriza government of former Prime minister Alexis Tsipras. His party had been elected the same year on the promise to end austerity and his government had devised the electorate to vote against the terms of the ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various credit spreads and return forecasts for different segments, indicating a cautious outlook on high-yield (HY) and leveraged loans while favoring investment-grade (IG) credit [5][61][72]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a yield-driven market for global investment-grade credit, with expectations for spreads to remain stable or widen modestly in high-yield and leveraged loan segments due to slower global growth and sticky inflation [5][61][72]. - It highlights the divergence in economic forecasts, with the US and Euro Area experiencing low growth and inflation pressures, while Asia is expected to face wider spreads due to trade risks and high valuations [9][10][81]. - The report suggests a preference for quality over cyclicality in credit investments, indicating that investors may be better compensated for taking duration risk rather than cyclical risk in the current environment [30][32][39]. Summary by Sections Global Credit Outlook - Global investment-grade credit remains attractive due to good yields, with a preference for 5-10 year maturities in the US and 15 years or more in Europe [5][61]. - High-yield spreads are expected to widen modestly, reflecting slower growth and increasing default rates, with a forecast of 3.5% for high-yield defaults [61][72]. Macro Economic Forecasts - The report forecasts US GDP growth at 1.0% for 2025, with core inflation at 3.3%, and no Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year [10][11]. - Euro Area growth is projected at 0.8% with core inflation at 2.2%, while China is expected to grow at 4.0% with minimal inflation [10]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the US, investment-grade credit is expected to see excess returns of 2.1%, while high-yield is forecasted at 3.6% [61]. - European investment-grade credit is projected to have a total return of 2.0% in the base case, with high-yield expected to yield 4.9% [72]. Asia Credit Outlook - Asia's investment-grade spreads are anticipated to widen to 100 basis points, reflecting concerns over weaker growth and tariff uncertainties [81][83]. - The report indicates a preference for non-China investment-grade credit due to expected tariff impacts on China [84][85].

Core Viewpoint - Carnival is experiencing strong demand and financial recovery, making its stock an attractive investment opportunity despite high debt levels [1][10]. Group 1: Demand and Revenue Growth - Carnival is the largest cruise operator globally, with record demand for its cruises, surpassing pre-pandemic sales levels [2][4]. - In Q2 of fiscal 2025, revenue increased by 8.6% year over year, with total deposits reaching a record $8.5 billion [2][4]. - Operating income nearly doubled year over year to almost $1 billion, and adjusted net income more than tripled, with EPS of $0.35 exceeding expectations [5]. Group 2: Future Investments - Carnival is investing in new ships and upgrades to maintain strong demand, with one new ship scheduled for delivery this year and four more on order for 2027 to 2032 [6][7]. - The company is launching a new resort, Celebration Key, in the Bahamas, which can accommodate two million guests annually, enhancing its offerings [8]. - Additional experiences, RelaxAway and Isla Tropicale, are set to launch next year, along with a new membership program to drive repeat business [9]. Group 3: Debt Management and Financial Stability - Carnival's total debt stands at over $27 billion, down nearly $10 billion from its peak of $32 billion at the end of 2022, with efficient debt repayment strategies [10]. - The company received upgrades from Fitch and S&P Global, now just one notch away from an investment-grade rating, indicating improved financial health [11]. - Carnival's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12 and a P/S ratio of just over 1, suggesting it is undervalued [11].

Portfolio Overview - The company's Manhattan-focused real estate portfolio features an underlying tenant base in core commercial businesses, with 77% Investment Grade rated among the top 10 tenants[4] - Portfolio Occupancy is at 82% with a weighted-average Remaining Lease Term of 5.4 years[4] - Over 51% of leases expire after 2030, based on Annualized Straight-Line Rent as of March 31, 2025[4] Property Details - Real Estate Investments are valued at $470.9 million at cost, comprising 6 properties with a total of 1.0 million square feet[12] - The portfolio generates $45.5 million in Annualized Straight-line Rent[12] - 123 William Street accounts for $269.4 million in real estate assets, 84% occupancy, 3.4 years remaining lease term, 46% of Annualized Straight-Line Rent, and 55% of Portfolio Square Feet[23] Tenant Profile - Top 10 tenants are 77% Investment Grade rated, with a Remaining Lease Term of 7.8 years[4] - The top 10 tenants contribute to 50.5% of Portfolio SLR and 42.4% of Portfolio SF[27] - Financial Services represent 26% of tenant industry diversity, followed by Government/Public Administration at 17%[15] Financial Highlights - Total Debt amounts to $350.0 million, with a weighted-average interest rate of 4.4%[36] - Net Leverage stands at 57.9%[36] - Revenue from Tenants is $12.3 million, while the Net Loss is ($8.6) million for Q1'25[36]

Portfolio Highlights - The company's real estate investments, at cost, totaled $470.8 million[8] - The portfolio consists of 6 properties with a total square footage of 1 million[8] - The portfolio's occupancy rate is 80.8%[4, 8] with a weighted-average remaining lease term of 6.3 years[4, 8] - Annualized Straight-Line Rent (SLR) for the portfolio is $45.4 million[8] - 77% of the top 10 tenants are Investment Grade rated[3, 4, 9] Strategic Dispositions and Leasing - The company completed the sale of 9 Times Square for $63.5 million during Q4'24[4, 7, 24] and generated net proceeds of approximately $13.5 million[7, 24] - The company completed five new leases in 2024 totaling 37,407 SF and $2.0 million of SLR[4, 23, 24] Capital Structure - The company has a 100% fixed-debt capital structure with a weighted-average debt maturity of 3.6 years at a 4.4% weighted-average interest rate[4, 27, 31, 33] - Total debt is $350 million[27, 34] and Net Leverage is 56.9%[27, 31, 32, 33] - There are no debt maturities in 2025[4, 28, 31, 33] Financial Results - Revenue from tenants was $14.9 million in Q4'24[27] - Cash NOI was $6.4 million in Q4'24, up approximately 2% year-over-year from $6.3 million in Q4'23[27, 31]