Whirlpool (WHR) FY Conference May 20, 2025 02:00 PM ET Speaker0 You're on. Alright. Hello, everyone. We're gonna continue. Thanks for sticking around. We're I'm pleased to have with us Whirlpool Corporation. To my left, Jim Peters, CFO, and to Jim's left, Scott Cartwright, VP of Investor Relations. I remain Mike Rehart, at JPMorgan. We'll do a fireside chat, as always, and there'll be some time left over for q and a. So, Jim, Scott, thanks for joining me. Speaker1 Appreciate it. Happy to be here, Mike, and ...

Core Viewpoint - Shopify Inc reported strong fiscal first-quarter results with a revenue growth of 26.8% to $2.36 billion, surpassing analyst expectations, although adjusted EPS of $0.25 fell slightly short of the consensus estimate [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly revenue increased by 26.8% to $2.36 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $2.33 billion [1]. - Adjusted EPS rose by 25% to $0.25, but missed the analyst consensus estimate of $0.26 [1]. - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 22.8% to $74.75 billion, while merchant solutions revenue increased by 28.9% to $1.74 billion [2]. Market Trends and Guidance - The second-quarter guidance anticipates continued strength in GMV, projecting mid-20s revenue growth and high-teens gross profit growth [4]. - Analysts noted that Shopify's GMV multiplier as a percentage of U.S. eCommerce growth remains strong, indicating potential market share gains even amid a slowdown in U.S. eCommerce growth [7]. International Expansion - Shopify is benefiting from the globalization of commerce, with significant market share gains abroad, particularly in the North American market [6]. - Cross-border trade constitutes 15% of GMV, with 1% of overall GMV related to imports from China [9]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Piper Sandler maintains a Neutral rating with a price target of $104, while Goldman Sachs holds a Buy rating with a revised price target of $120, down from $130 [11]. Margin Insights - Free cash flow margins are expected to remain in the mid-teens range, with a decline in these margins viewed negatively [5]. - Pressure on gross margins is anticipated in 2025 due to various factors, including the PayPal partnership and the impact of longer paid trial lengths [12].

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Group 1 - Tomas Riba is an economist and former CFO who focuses on investing in high-quality companies that can compound cash flow over the long term [1] - His investment journey began in 2007, and he has a background in accounting and finance [1] - Riba has experience in various industries including pharma, medical devices, textiles, food, and real estate [1] - Currently, he teaches courses on "Derivatives for risk management" and "Investment analysis" at a Master's Degree program in Financial Management [1] - Riba's investment strategy emphasizes long-term growth, targeting companies with strong competitive advantages, expanding margins, low debt, and aligned management [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coca-Cola Consolidated's stock experienced a significant decline following disappointing Q1 earnings, with a 12% drop in share price despite a positive market backdrop [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported earnings per share of $11.87 on revenue of $1.58 billion for the quarter, with revenue down 0.7% year over year [3]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to two fewer sales days compared to the previous year, affecting overall sales performance [3]. - Gross profit margin decreased from 40.2% to 39.7%, and gross profit fell by 2% year over year [3]. - Operating income for the quarter was $190 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decline [3]. Volume and Pricing Dynamics - Unit volume fell by 6.6% year over year, necessitating pricing increases to maintain revenue levels [4]. - Adjusting for the two fewer sales days, the volume decline would have been 4.5% year over year [4]. - While pricing increases stabilized revenue, they were insufficient to prevent a decline in gross margin [5]. Future Outlook - Continued declines in unit volume could negatively impact future earnings, despite the potential for moderate pricing increases [5].

Core Viewpoint - Lucid Group is anticipated to experience significant sales growth, with revenue expected to nearly double by 2025, driven by new mass market models and the introduction of the Gravity SUV platform [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Growth and Market Position - The company is in a phase of heavy top-line growth due to the recent introduction of its Gravity SUV platform and plans for more affordable electric vehicles, which is positive for investors [2]. - Analysts predict that Lucid's revenue growth trajectory could persist for several years, indicating a strong market position [1]. Group 2: Financial Health and Profitability - Despite the promising sales growth, Lucid has not yet reached profitability, with gross margins remaining deeply negative, meaning the company incurs losses on every vehicle sold [3]. - The company generated negative free cash flow of $3 billion last year, with cash burn accelerating towards the end of the year, raising concerns about liquidity and access to capital [5]. Group 3: Shareholder Dilution and Future Outlook - The total number of shares outstanding has increased in recent quarters, suggesting that the company is resorting to dilution to maintain solvency [3]. - If gross margins do not improve significantly, Lucid may need to dilute shareholders further to fund its aggressive revenue growth, potentially leading to poor stock performance despite sales increases [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of $595 million or $1.90 per share, compared to a net income of $1.2 billion or $3.75 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - Adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $282 million or $0.89 per share, down from $1.3 billion or $3.84 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - The refining segment reported an operating loss of $530 million in Q1 2025, compared to an operating income of $1.7 billion in Q1 2024 [12] - Refining throughput volumes averaged 2.8 million barrels per day with a capacity utilization of 89% in Q1 2025 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renewable Diesel segment reported an operating loss of $141 million in Q1 2025, down from an operating income of $190 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Ethanol segment operating income was $20 million in Q1 2025, compared to $10 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.5 million gallons per day in Q1 2025 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. light product demand showed a slight increase compared to last year, with product inventories below the same period last year [8] - Diesel sales volumes increased by 6% year-over-year, supported by higher agricultural demand [26] - Total light product demand globally increased by approximately 1 million barrels per day year-over-year [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, capital deployment with a focus on returns, and maintaining shareholder returns [10] - A $230 million SEC unit optimization project is underway to increase the yield of high-value products, expected to start in 2026 [9] - The company anticipates tight product supply and demand balances, with low product inventories supporting refining fundamentals ahead of the driving season [10] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that refining margins improved through the quarter despite a tough margin environment in the renewable diesel segment [7] - The company expects refining throughput volumes to fall within specific ranges for Q2 2025, with cash operating expenses projected at $5.15 per barrel [18][19] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the portfolio despite macroeconomic uncertainties [98] Other Important Information - The company returned $633 million to shareholders in Q1 2025, with a payout ratio of 73% [16] - The company ended the quarter with $8.5 billion in total debt and $4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong balance sheet [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market dynamics and crude differentials - Management noted that sales through the wholesale system were down a few percent, but product exports were up year-over-year [25] - Diesel sales were supported by higher agricultural demand, with total light product inventory drawing down to below the five-year average [30][31] Question: Guidance for Q2 and maintenance impacts - Management confirmed that lower guidance for Q2 is primarily due to maintenance activities, particularly in the North Atlantic and Mid Continent regions [48][49] Question: Decision to close the Peninsula refinery - Management explained that the decision was influenced by California's stringent regulatory environment and the higher costs associated with maintaining the facility [58] Question: Renewable diesel market normalization - Management indicated that the market is still adjusting to the new PTC regime, with expectations for improvement in the back half of the year [75] Question: Update on import permit in Mexico - Management confirmed the reinstatement of the import permit after demonstrating compliance with Mexican authorities [89][90] Question: Cash balance and share buybacks - Management emphasized the strength of the balance sheet and the commitment to returning cash to shareholders through buybacks [97] Question: Diesel inventory outlook - Management acknowledged the tight diesel inventory situation in the U.S. and the potential for increased volatility in the market [148]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of $595 million or $1.90 per share, compared to a net income of $1.2 billion or $3.75 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - Adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $282 million or $0.89 per share, down from $1.3 billion or $3.84 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - The refining segment reported an operating loss of $530 million in Q1 2025, compared to an operating income of $1.7 billion in Q1 2024 [12] - Refining throughput averaged 2.8 million barrels per day with a capacity utilization of 89% [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renewable Diesel segment reported an operating loss of $141 million in Q1 2025, down from an operating income of $190 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Ethanol segment operating income was $20 million in Q1 2025, up from $10 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 2.4 million gallons per day in Q1 2025 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. light product demand was slightly higher than last year, with product inventories below the same period last year [8] - Diesel sales showed a 6% year-over-year increase, supported by higher agricultural demand [26] - Total light product demand globally increased by approximately 1 million barrels per day year-over-year [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, capital deployment with a focus on returns, and maintaining shareholder returns [10] - A $230 million SEC unit optimization project is underway to increase the yield of high-value products, expected to start in 2026 [9] - The company anticipates tight product supply and demand balances, with low product inventories supporting refining fundamentals ahead of the driving season [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a resilient economy despite macro uncertainties, with expectations of tight gasoline supply in California due to refinery closures [58][148] - The company expects refining cash operating expenses in Q2 2025 to be $5.15 per barrel [19] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to return cash to shareholders, with a commitment to share buybacks supported by a strong balance sheet [98] Other Important Information - The company returned $633 million to shareholders in Q1 2025, with a payout ratio of 73% [16] - The company ended Q1 2025 with $8.5 billion in total debt and $4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents [17] - The company expects capital investments for 2025 to be approximately $2 billion, with $1.6 billion allocated to sustaining the business [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market dynamics and crude differentials - Management noted that sales through the wholesale system were down a few percent, but product exports were up year-over-year [25] - Diesel sales were supported by higher agricultural demand, with a year-over-year increase in gasoline sales of 1% [26] Question: Guidance for Q2 and maintenance impacts - Management confirmed that lower guidance for Q2 is primarily due to maintenance activities, particularly in the North Atlantic and Mid Continent regions [48][106] Question: Decision to close the Peninsula refinery - Management explained that stringent regulatory environments in California influenced the decision to close the refinery, with higher maintenance costs compared to Wilmington [58] Question: Renewable diesel market normalization - Management indicated that the market is adjusting to new PTC regulations, with expectations for improvement in the back half of the year [75] Question: Update on import permit in Mexico - Management confirmed the reinstatement of the import permit after demonstrating compliance with Mexican authorities [89] Question: Cash balance and share buybacks - Management emphasized the strength of the balance sheet and the commitment to returning cash to shareholders through buybacks [98] Question: Diesel inventory outlook - Management acknowledged that California may face gasoline shortages in the coming years, leading to potential volatility in margins [148]

Core Viewpoint - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) reported a significant adjusted loss in Q1 2025, contrasting sharply with prior earnings and consensus estimates, primarily due to asset impairments and declining refining margins [1][2]. Financial Performance - The adjusted loss for Q1 2025 was $1.90 per share, compared to earnings of $3.82 in the same quarter last year [1]. - Total revenues decreased from $31,759 million in the prior-year quarter to $30,258 million, although this figure exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $28,450 million [1]. - Adjusted operating income in the Refining segment fell to $605 million from $1.8 billion year-over-year, missing the estimate of $1,022 million [3]. - The Ethanol segment reported an adjusted operating profit of $20 million, down from $39 million in the prior-year quarter, also missing the estimate of $55.1 million [4]. - The Renewable Diesel segment experienced an operating loss of $141 million, a decline from an operating income of $190 million in the previous year [5]. Operational Metrics - Refining throughput volumes increased to 2,828 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 2,760 MBbls/d year-over-year, surpassing the estimate of 2,786 MBbls/d [6]. - The Gulf Coast region contributed 59.1% to total throughput volume, with Mid-Continent, North Atlantic, and West Coast regions accounting for 16%, 17.4%, and 7.5%, respectively [7]. Margins and Costs - The refining margin per barrel of throughput decreased to $9.78 from $14.07 in the prior year, while operating expenses per barrel rose to $5.07 from $4.71 [8]. - Total cost of sales slightly decreased to $29,751 million from $29,776 million year-over-year, attributed to lower material costs [9]. Capital Investment and Balance Sheet - Capital investment for Q1 totaled $660 million, with $582 million allocated for sustaining the business [10]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.6 billion, total debt of $8.5 billion, and finance lease obligations of $2.3 billion [11].