Core Insights - The government shutdown is creating a data void, impacting how investors interpret economic indicators and necessitating the use of alternative data sources [2][3][4] Data Analysis - The Carile Group reported only 17,000 jobs added in September, significantly below the expected 54,000, indicating a weaker job market [5][9] - Various reports, including ADP payroll and ISM manufacturing, show job losses and a contracting labor market, reinforcing concerns about employment trends [8][9] Earnings Season Expectations - The upcoming earnings season is critical, with expectations for S&P 500 earnings to catch up to rising market valuations [10][11] - Focus on gross margins is essential, as companies face challenges in passing on price increases while dealing with higher input costs [12][13] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more cautious, as evidenced by increased sales of home-cooked meal products, indicating a shift in spending habits [16][17] - Retailers like Amazon and Walmart are attempting to extend the holiday shopping season to stimulate consumer spending [17][18]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of unique insights and knowledge in stock analysis, aiming to provide contrasting views on investment portfolios [1] Group 1 - The analyst expresses a broad interest in various stocks, indicating a diverse investment approach [1] - There is a focus on providing personal opinions and insights rather than professional investment advice [3] - The article highlights the necessity for investors to conduct their own research and due diligence before making investment decisions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season is critical for sustaining the current bull market, with a focus on commentary regarding 2026 and structural opportunities rather than just Q3 numbers [2][3][5] Earnings Outlook - Q3 reports will emphasize commentary on future earnings potential, particularly for 2026, rather than just current performance [3][4] - There is a possibility of reaching $300 in earnings as the season progresses [4] Productivity and Margins - Margin expansion is expected to continue into next year, driven by productivity improvements and efficiency measures [5] - Companies need to achieve high return on equity (ROE) to maintain above-average valuations [5] Market Dynamics - A healthier bull market is anticipated, characterized by broad participation rather than speculation [6] - Earnings growth could reach 10-12%, with a mix of high-growth companies and others contributing positively [7] Sector Performance - Consumer discretionary sectors may see upgrades, particularly if lower rates provide tailwinds [8] - Small-cap stocks could benefit from a cyclical upturn, reducing reliance on Fed rate cuts [9] Investment Strategy - A suggested strategy includes pairing NASDAQ investments with small-cap stocks while potentially overlooking large-cap value [10] - The current macro backdrop is favorable for risk assets, including equities and credit [11][12]

Joining us this morning, City research director of US equity strategy, Drew Credits with us. Drew, welcome back. Good to see you. >> Hey, good to see you, Carl.>> I got to say, um, making your way through September with no major hiccups on the headline uh, indexes kind of has the desks today saying maybe we averted weak seasonality and we can look forward to an up Q4. What do you think. >> Yeah, it's funny.It's going to be very dependent on the earning season. to us the the pressure's actually grown with a ...

I disagree with this view for a few reasons.(1) First, fast topline growth businesses are rare. Often they have a thesis on how margins can improve. And sometimes that thesis plays out. AI costs are highly dynamic, for example.(2) Second, yes, from today’s vantage point we can see that ride-sharing worked out but scooters made less money. However, even Uber lost money for many years. And the micromobility companies did create enormous consumer value, and Lime is apparently going public.(3) Third, just about ...

Actually they beat and they raised. But when you dig into the detail, server bookings were less than the previous quarter. Yeah, well if we if we think about the timing of these deals, Caroline, there was one big deal that went in and it's unclear who it is, but it's probably one of the big neo cloud vendors, whether it's a core wave or or OCI.So it is going to be sequentially down. But if we think about it for a second half, the first half basis, it's 10 billion even second half versus first half. So, you ...

Retail Earnings & Tariffs Impact - Retail sector is facing a significant week with earnings reports from Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and Walmart [1] - Potential impact of tariffs on the financial results of these retailers is a key concern [1] - Three out of the four retailers mentioned use accounting methods that could reveal the impact of tariffs [2] Companies to Watch - Home Depot's results will be released tomorrow [1] - Target and Lowe's will report on Wednesday [1] - Walmart's earnings are scheduled for Thursday [1]

Corporate America’s effort to boost margins and sustain US stock gains faces a key hurdle: a widening gap between consumer and producer prices, compounded by tariff uncertainties https://t.co/BfPDQvKwJV ...

Yesterday's headlines, just modestly higher inflation from tariffs. Steve's going to dig deeper into it, but I just want to have a conversation with you before you you wrote something out. We've been crunching some numbers.You can do that in a sec. Can I read something to you. >> You got something. What do you got.>> So, this is what we were trying to say yesterday that and I think this is good. And then I want to ask you what it would really take for the Fed. The lack of a more alarming acceleration in pri ...

Business Strategy - During land grab time, companies with access to relatively cheap private capital may prioritize distribution over margins [1] - The rational business decision is to sacrifice margin for distribution to acquire incremental users [1] - The long-term value of acquiring users now outweighs the short-term cost of sacrificing margin [1] User Acquisition - Acquiring users now is crucial because if a company misses the opportunity, it may never be able to monetize them in the future [1]