All right, gold and silver both pacing for their best week in five years. For more on that recent rally and his outlook for the precious metals, we want to bring in Don Striven. He is co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.And Don, you recently brought up your price target for gold, the gold, the price you expect by December of next year. Um, what' you say. 4,900 instead of the 4,300 that you'd been at previously.What what made you say aside from just watching how quickly things were runnin ...

Core Insights - Nassim Nicholas Taleb emphasizes the distinction between silver and gold, noting that central banks do not hoard silver, which affects its investment appeal [1] - Gold is preferred by central banks due to its established role as a reserve asset, while silver is more industrial, limiting its attractiveness for central bank reserves [2][3] Performance Comparison - Year-to-date, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has surged approximately 74%, while the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has increased about 55% [3] - Silver's higher returns come with increased risk, as its Beta relative to the S&P 500 is around 1.4, compared to gold's 0.46, indicating more dramatic price swings for silver [3] Volatility and Risk - Silver's standard deviation of returns over the past year is nearly double that of gold, highlighting its volatility [4] - Investors should be aware of silver's industrial demand fluctuations and market liquidity, which can lead to sudden price shifts [4] Investment Vehicles - ETFs like SLV provide a way for investors to gain exposure to silver without holding physical metal, with SLV trading above $46 as of mid-October 2025 [5] - Despite its strong performance, silver's volatility and lack of central bank backing categorize it as a higher-risk investment compared to gold [5][6] Strategic Considerations - While silver may present short-term upside, its elevated volatility and absence from central bank reserves sharply differentiate it from gold [6] - Investors should consider both performance and risk when allocating to precious metals, as the market treats gold and silver very differently [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has raised its 2026 price forecasts for gold to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $65, driven by supply tightness, policy uncertainty, and increasing investment demand [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - A projected 14% increase in gold investment demand in 2026 could elevate prices to $5,000 or higher [3]. - ETF inflows into gold funds surged 880% year-over-year in September, reaching $14 billion, indicating strong investment interest [3]. - Gold investment demand now constitutes over 5% of global equity and bond markets, up from 2.8% two years ago, suggesting a significant shift in institutional positioning [4]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold, with expectations of looser monetary policy due to fiscal deficits and rising debt [5]. - A potential 28% increase in ETF flows could pave the way for gold prices to reach $6,000, although this is considered a challenging target [5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Despite an expected 11% decline in total silver demand in 2026, silver is likely to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year due to insufficient mining supply [6]. - The shift in the solar industry to TopCon panels, which require less silver, is impacting demand dynamics [7]. - Tightness in the physical silver market has been noted, with increased lease rates in London indicating supply constraints [8]. Group 4: Price Projections - Bank of America anticipates potential price increases for gold and silver, projecting gold could rise to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce by 2026, despite acknowledging short-term risks [9].

Group 1 - Gold has recently surpassed the $4,000 mark, indicating a significant milestone in its market performance [1] - Silver has also reached a new all-time high, reflecting strong demand and market interest [1] Group 2 - The analyst expresses a particular interest in the Mining and Real Estate sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these areas [1]

Summary of Triple Flag Precious Metals Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE: TFPM) - **Founded**: 2016 - **Market Position**: Fourth largest streaming and royalty company in the precious metals sector [2][3] - **Current Sales Guidance**: 105,000 to 115,000 gold-equivalent ounces for 2025, projected to rise to 135,000 to 145,000 by 2029 [3][30] - **Portfolio**: 237 assets, with 30 currently producing [3] Financial Performance - **Dividend**: $0.23 per share, increased annually since IPO in May 2021 [3] - **Available Liquidity**: Approximately $1 billion for new investments [3] - **Capital Deployment**: $2.8 billion since inception, correlating to about $280 million annually [14][15] - **Free Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow and free cash flow are effectively the same due to the absence of ongoing capital expenditures [13] Business Model and Strategy - **Streaming and Royalty Model**: Generates robust free cash flows without the drag of capital expenditures, allowing for a diverse portfolio [4][5] - **Diversification**: Includes various operators, commodities (primarily gold and silver), and jurisdictions [5][21] - **Optionality**: Embedded in contracts, allowing for direct benefits from rising commodity prices without margin variability [6][10] - **Focus on Cash Flow**: Emphasis on acquiring producing mines and near-mine exploration to quickly add value [45][46] Growth Drivers - **Current and Future Projects**: Growth to 135,000 to 145,000 gold-equivalent ounces will come from expansions of existing mines and new exploration projects [30] - **Key Assets**: Northparkes, Beta Hunt, and Hope Bay are highlighted as significant contributors to future growth [30][49] - **Recent Acquisitions**: - 1% royalty on Arthur Gold Project for slightly less than $250 million [51] - 0.5% royalty on Zhejiang's flagship lithium mine for just under $30 million [55] - 5% silver stream on Arcata and Azuca for $35 million [57] Market Outlook - **Gold Price**: Currently nearing $4,000 per ounce, with a positive long-term outlook due to structural factors such as government debt [10][11] - **Investment Philosophy**: Focus on high-quality assets with significant exploration potential, while maintaining a strong balance sheet [40][74] Cultural and Operational Insights - **Team Background**: Predominantly from larger mining companies, emphasizing a blend of operational and financial expertise [44] - **Transparency and Due Diligence**: Strong emphasis on detailed asset evaluation and open communication with partners [47][48] Conclusion - **Long-term Vision**: Commitment to growing free cash flow per share and maintaining alignment with shareholder interests, with a focus on high-quality precious metals exposure [40][74]

Amid a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar, ongoing market uncertainty, and creeping inflation, precious metals are having a banner year. Gold has set 11 all-time highs and has posted a year-to-date (YTD) gain of more than 45%. Silver, which often follows gold, has outperformed the yellow metal with a YTD gain of nearly 57%. Meanwhile, platinum is up 75% in 2025, trading near a 17-year high.  In September, the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since 2024 added another tailwi ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market has experienced significant gains in 2025, with gold, silver, and platinum prices rising substantially, indicating a strong trend in hard assets [4][22]. Precious Metals Performance - Gold started the year at $2,645 per ounce and has risen to over $3,850, marking a gain of over 47% [4]. - Silver began at $29.60 per ounce and is now over $47, reflecting a gain of about 58% [4]. - Platinum started at $995 per ounce and is currently in the $1,600 range, achieving a gain of 60% [4]. Investment Considerations - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to the declining value of the dollar, a trend that has been ongoing since the U.S. left the gold standard in 1971 [7][22]. - Investors are advised to hold physical metals rather than selling them, as they represent real money and are not subject to the liabilities associated with financial instruments [10][12]. Mining and Royalty Companies - The rise in precious metal prices has positively impacted mining and royalty companies, leading to significant stock price increases for several key players: - Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV) rose from $125 to $225 [15]. - Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) increased from $134 to $198 [15]. - Osisko Royalties (OR) went from $18 to over $39 [15]. - Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) climbed from $56 to $110 [15]. - Major mining companies also saw substantial gains: - Barrick Mining (B) increased from $14 to $33 [18]. - Newmont Mining (NEM) rose from $38 to $84 [18]. - Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) moved from $83 to $166 [19]. - Kinross Gold (KGC) increased from $9.50 to over $24 [19]. Market Outlook - The ongoing trend suggests that as long as precious metal prices continue to rise, royalty plays and mining companies will benefit from increased cash flow and profitability [16][24]. - The potential for a global recovery in faith in the dollar could impact precious metal prices, but such a scenario seems unlikely given current government spending trends [17][22].

Market Overview - Gold, silver, and Bitcoin have shown strong year-to-date (YTD) returns of 42%, 52%, and 17% respectively, as the U.S. dollar weakens significantly [1] - Investors are increasingly seeking these alternatives as a stable store of value and protection against inflation [1] Investment Options - Investors have various choices in the gold, silver, and Bitcoin sectors, including physical holdings, digital tokens, and dedicated exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [2] - ETFs can simplify storage and security concerns for investors interested in these assets [2] Gold Exploration ETF: GOEX - The Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) tracks an index of gold exploration firms, with over half of its portfolio in Canadian companies [3] - GOEX has a dividend yield of 1.08% and an expense ratio of 0.65%, with assets under management totaling $101.13 million [4] - The ETF has shown impressive returns, nearly 90% YTD, despite not being a pure-play gold fund [5] Silver Mining ETF: AGMI - The Themes Silver Miners ETF (AGMI) focuses on silver mining companies and has a low expense ratio of 0.35% [6][7] - AGMI has returned nearly 105% YTD, although it has limited liquidity and a concentrated portfolio [8] Bitcoin Mining ETF: WGMI - The CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) is actively managed and focuses on companies generating significant revenue from Bitcoin mining [10] - WGMI has a higher expense ratio of 0.75% and has returned 103% YTD, with a concentrated portfolio of just 23 positions [12]

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, continue to be a safe haven for investors during economic uncertainty, with historical trends showing increased interest during financial crises [1][2] - Precious metals stocks offer a way for equity investors to benefit from both the defensive nature of the underlying commodities and the growth potential of mining companies [2] - Gold has reached record highs in September 2025, driven by expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve, with a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October [3][4] Industry Overview - The interest in gold is expanding beyond central banks and Asian buyers to include U.S. and European investors, particularly through ETFs, as lower interest rates are anticipated [4] - The selection of the best precious metals stocks is based on U.S.-listed companies with exposure to gold, silver, palladium, or platinum, focusing on those most widely owned by hedge funds [7][8] Company Highlights - **Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE:EGO)**: - Market Cap: $5.7 Billion, with 25 hedge fund holders [9] - Expected gold production for 2025 is between 460,000 and 500,000 ounces, down from 520,293 ounces in 2024, but projected to increase by 44% to 605-665 Koz by 2027 [10] - Strong balance sheet with over $1.0 billion in cash and equivalents as of June 2025, and a recent price target increase from $27 to $34 by RBC Capital Markets [11][12] - **Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. (NYSE:SBSW)**: - Market Cap: $6.8 Billion, with 25 hedge fund holders [13] - Recently completed acquisition of Metallix Refining for approximately $129 million, expected to enhance U.S. recycling operations [14] - Analysts have raised price targets, with RBC Capital increasing from $8.00 to $9.50, despite mixed performance in H1 2025 results [15][16]

Group 1 - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are highlighted as the best-performing asset class of 2025, with gold rising approximately 37% and silver increasing about 41% [1] - The S&P 500 has seen a gain of 13% during the same period, indicating a significant outperformance by precious metals [1] - The analyst has maintained a long-term bullish outlook on gold and silver, suggesting confidence in their continued strength in the market [1] Group 2 - The analyst has a beneficial long position in various precious metal-related securities, including PPLT, PALL, SLV, GLD, and USO, indicating a vested interest in the performance of these assets [2] - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and insights based on over a decade of market observation and professional experience in financial sectors [1][2]