On Wednesday, President Trump confirmed something that every other administration might have kept shrouded in secrecy that he had approved new CIA actions inside Venezuela. A move so unprecedented that it prompted a question like that from a reporter. So far, US military strikes on boats in the Caribbean have killed 27 people with little information, evidence, or much of an explanation from the Trump administration on their goals and its war on drug trafficking.But sources tell the New York Times, which was ...

US-Venezuela Relations - The US government is increasing pressure on Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, accusing him of rigging elections [2] - The US denies regime change but questions the legitimacy of Venezuelan elections [1] - The US labels Maduro a narco-terrorist and offers a $50 million reward for information leading to his arrest [2] - Maduro accuses the US of planning to overthrow his government and blames Marco Rubio for directing White House policy [4] US Strategy - The US aims to stem the flow of illegal drugs from Venezuela [3] - The US seeks to pressure Maduro to leave power without deploying American troops [3] - The US is deploying military firepower, including guided missile destroyers, near Venezuela [3] Venezuelan Situation - Maduro supporters are gathering in response to US actions [4] - Venezuela experienced mass protests in 2019 due to hyperinflation and blackouts [4]

When you talk to Iranians today out in the streets, Richard, what are they saying to you about their their current government after this war. People are rallying around the government more. Those who are opposed to the government, don't like the government, I'm sure, still don't like the government.But the idea that this military action was suddenly going to bring people out onto the streets and start a popular uprising and lead to a a people's revolt that would change the regime is not happening. There are ...

Geopolitical Landscape - The report focuses on the situation in Iran, specifically in Tehran, during a Shia religious festival honoring a martyr killed 1400 years ago [1] - The ongoing religious festival has a special resonance due to the recent conflict between Israel and Iran [2] - Access to Iran is restricted, with limited foreign presence and airspace closures, requiring travel via the Afghan border to Mashhad and then driving to Tehran [3] - The Iranian government maintains control, with visible security measures including checkpoints and police presence in Tehran [4] Societal Sentiment - Despite potential discontent with the government since 1979, many Iranians are reportedly standing with their government due to the intensity of Israeli bombing and ongoing negotiations [5][6] - A prevailing sentiment among Iranians is a fear of civil war and bloodshed, leading them to oppose regime change imposed from abroad [6][7] - There is concern that continued bombing by Israel or the United States could lead to regime destruction, which is undesirable for many Iranians [7] Potential Risks - The report suggests a risk of escalation if external forces continue military actions, potentially leading to unintended consequences such as regime destruction [7] - The report highlights the potential for instability and unrest, although currently not visible, if external pressures persist [2][5]

Now that Iran attacked the US military base in Qatar, what comes next for the Middle East. Well, joining us now is Richard Hos, president emeritus at the Council on Foreign Relations. He's also a senior counselor with Centerview Partners.Richard, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. I'm going to ask you the same question I just asked Mark Esper, and that is this attack, which seems to be pretty limited and pretty well intercepted uh on Aluded in Qatar.Does this now provide an off-ramp rather th ...

US Involvement in Iran - The US government is sending mixed signals regarding its involvement in Iran, with the president suggesting potential regime change [1] - This stance contradicts statements from senior officials who deny regime change as a US objective [2][3] Potential Retaliation and Threats - Iran reportedly threatened to attack the US via sleeper cells if strikes proceeded [4] - The Department of Homeland Security warns of an ongoing threat environment in the US, including potential cyber attacks [4] Monitoring and Observation - The industry is closely monitoring the situation as the week progresses [5] - The president has not been seen on camera, adding to the uncertainty [5]

Geopolitical Events & Potential Impact - US military conducted precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Esfahan [1] - The State Department urges increased caution to US citizens abroad due to potential Iranian retaliation [1] - US and its allies are calling for talks to resume over Iran's nuclear program [2] - President Trump suggests potential regime change in Iran if the current regime fails [4] - Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact oil markets [9] US Response & Military Posture - The US maintains the operation aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear program and ambitions [3] - The US claims to have significantly delayed Iran's nuclear weapon ambitions, but Iran still holds enriched uranium [6] - The White House claims proactive measures to protect troops, including personnel removal from Iraq [7] - Over 40,000 US troops are deployed in the Middle East, heightening risk [8] Iranian Considerations & Potential Response - Iranian officials state talks cannot resume unless strikes stop [3] - Bloomberg analysts indicate Iran might temper its response due to a weak economy, domestic discontent, and lack of strong allied support [8] Assessment & Monitoring - It will take a long time to fully assess the damage from the strikes by US officials and the International Atomic Energy Agency [5]

Iran Nuclear Deal & US Policy - The US president faces a critical decision regarding Iran, potentially involving military force [2] - A proposed approach involves offering Iran a final opportunity for a deal with demanding nuclear concessions in exchange for sanctions relief [2] - The deal aims to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threat while allowing the current regime to remain in power [3] - Using force to diminish Iran's nuclear program is presented as a realistic option if a deal cannot be reached [3] Regime Change in Iran - Regime change is described as a "wish" rather than a viable strategy, and military force cannot confidently achieve it [6][8] - There is no organized opposition within Iran, making the outcome of regime change uncertain [6] - Regime change is considered less likely if an outcome, especially one with economic benefits, is reached with Iran [5] - Focusing on dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities is a more legitimate and potentially achievable option than pursuing regime change [9]

What are Donald Trump's options at this point. Well, Tom, ever since President Trump left that G7 summit early to focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, that has been the number one question. What are his options here.What is he thinking. Can we get insight into what is going on in President Trump's mind. We know that we had this reportedly one hour meeting with his national security team in Washington.There was no statement put out afterwards. So unclear what was discussed in that meeting. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. bond market and macroeconomic conditions, highlighting a significant shift in economic paradigms that have persisted for the last 40 years [1][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Regime Change**: The long-held belief that long-term interest rates will eventually decline is no longer applicable. The U.S. is on the brink of a dangerous collapse, with rising unemployment and inflation, alongside record-high deficits and debt [1]. - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is experiencing its largest and longest drawdown since 1976, with prices halved and the rebound timeline uncertain. Despite credit spreads returning to early-year levels, the volatility experienced is significant [2]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The recent interest rate cuts have resulted in the worst historical drop in bond prices, remaining well below the median range, while short-term rates have shown little change [6]. - **Credit Stress**: The credit spread between CCC and BB-rated bonds has surpassed its moving average, indicating that weaker borrowers are beginning to face significant pressure [9]. - **Unemployment Correlation**: There is a strong correlation between the 10-year to 2-year U.S. Treasury yield spread and the U3 unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates but faces challenges in cutting them due to base effects [11]. - **Inflation Concerns**: The current inflation cycle closely resembles that of the 1920s, which could pose significant risks if similar conditions arise [15]. - **Dollar Dynamics**: Over the past 15 years, the dollar has typically risen during S&P adjustments, except for the current instance, indicating a global paradigm shift [17]. - **Fiscal Deficits**: By 2025, the increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit will far exceed the growth seen in the past three years, which has already been unprecedented in terms of money printing [22]. - **Debt Impact**: U.S. debt expenditures have accounted for over 50% of the past 15 years, leading to increased living costs and potentially reigniting inflation by the end of the year, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's commitments [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Employment as a Trigger**: The U3 unemployment rate exceeding its three-year average has historically indicated impending recessions, although this has not yet occurred. A rise to 4.5% by year-end could trigger rate cuts [12]. - **Long-term Economic Divergence**: The last decade has seen a divergence in the relationship between unemployment and deficits, complicating traditional economic models [20]. - **Future Market Performance**: The U.S. market may underperform compared to global markets, as currency appreciation in other markets could enhance investment returns in dollars [31]. - **End of American Exceptionalism**: The dollar has begun a prolonged decline, suggesting that while U.S. equities may not perform poorly, the overall outlook is less optimistic [32].