Market Trends & Investment Strategies - Portfolio managers should consider selling the dollar due to an anticipated multiyear downtrend, similar to the post-Bretton Woods era in the 1970s [1] - Short rate strategies, particularly curve steepening, are advisable as long-end interest rates are expected to rise globally [2] - Defense stocks are recommended on the equity side, with further potential gains expected [2] Currency Dynamics - The dollar could potentially depreciate to 115 or even 140 within one to two years from its current level of 114 [3] - The speed of the potential dollar decline could mirror the 2002-2004 period, or even be more significant, reminiscent of the early 1970s [4] - Interest rate increases may reflect a risk premium concerning the dollar, behaving more like an emerging market dynamic [7] US Economy & International Order - Traditional cyclical dynamics in the US economy are becoming less relevant due to structural changes and international factors [6] - Tariffs and shifts in the international order need to be factored into US economic forecasts [6] - The Federal Reserve must understand how the changing international order will impact interest rates [6] - A weaker dollar is generally unfavorable, and no one would welcome a dollar at 140 [7][8]

June 9, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America M Idea The Weekly Worldview: Economics and Markets How our views on the impact of tariffs on the US and the Fed's path matter for our strategists' views on rates. M In last week's Weekly Worldview, we summarized our key convictions from the Economics mid-year outlook; this week we think through how the economic views translated into asset allocation. In general, our strategists' views align closely to ours and, in particular, the timing of t ...