MARK YOUR CALENDERS JULY 30TH 2025.● Fed’s next interest rate decision is July 30● President’s Working Group on Digital Assets has completed the 180-day report. It will be released publicly on July 30th ...

Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board considers a "measured and gradual" approach to easing monetary policy appropriate [1] - Governor Michele Bullock communicated the board's stance on policy easing [1]

Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to perform strongly in the next three to four weeks due to better-than-expected Q2 economic data and unrealized worst-case scenario risks [2] - AI supply chain support is contributing to market broadening [2] - The market is expected to continue climbing the "wall of worry" in the near term [2] Risks and Concerns - Tariff risks are expected to manifest in economic data over the next few quarters [2] - Tightening labor supply due to immigration policies poses a risk to the market's interest rate sensitivity in the second half of the year [6] - Inflation is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4 due to new and holiday ordering, and the clearing of pre-tariff inventory backlogs [5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut rates once this year, despite data suggesting they could have already cut twice [7] - Moderate tariffs are considered more inflationary than severe tariffs because they allow companies to pass on higher costs or absorb margin hits without demand destruction [9][10][11] - Tightening labor supply will likely cause the unemployment rate to move lower in the second half of the year [11] - Easy financial conditions, including strong equity markets and tight credit spreads, suggest the Fed does not need to cut rates assertively [12]

"Bloomberg ETF IQ" focuses on the opportunities, risks and current trends tied to the trillions of dollars in the global exchange traded funds industry. Today's guests: Anna Paglia, State Street Investment Management Executive VP/Chief Business Officer; Jeff Sherman, DoubleLine Deputy CIO. Chapters: 00:00:00 - ETF IQ Begins 00:00:53 - Go With The Flow: Stocks being bought, bonds being sold 00:02:15 - State Street's Anna Paglia discusses private credit ETF flows from SPY, QQQ and PRIV 00:08:35 - TF Brief loo ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The legislation is viewed as a significant legislative achievement, but concerns exist regarding its potential to substantially increase budget deficits in the future [1] - The legislation is considered the largest cutback in the social safety net identified, occurring alongside potential reductions in spending on scientific research, arts, humanities, and foreign assistance programs [3] - Concerns are raised that the legislation compromises the nation's capacity to defend itself due to increased debt and negatively impacts its standing as a humane force in the world [4] - Bond market trends, particularly forward rates on regular bonds (well above 5%) and TIPS (well above 3%), are seen as potentially ominous indicators of the nation's medium-term credibility and ability to issue long-term debt [12] Tariffs & Inflation - Despite concerns about tariffs, CPI numbers have not yet indicated the inflation predicted by most economists [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be delayed, with potential deflationary forces from artificial intelligence and technology possibly influencing the situation [7][8] - Studies during the president's first term indicated that tariffs translated into higher prices in affected sectors [9] Consumer & Small Business - Consumer spending grew by over 4% in the second quarter of 2024, supported by employment and wage growth [14] - Moderate-income households are showing some shifts in spending patterns, but overall discretionary spending remains consistent [15] - Small and medium-sized businesses face challenges due to the rising interest rate environment affecting their short-term borrowing costs [16] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs poses challenges for companies engaged in international trade, while the certainty provided by the tax rate is seen as a positive factor [17] Labor Market - Construction, farming, and travel/entertainment companies are expressing concerns about labor availability at any price [18] - Ensuring an adequate workforce is crucial for the continued growth of the service economy [19]

Meanwhile, our next guest thinks tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reach a boiling point by the next interest rate decision scheduled for later this month. Ben Emmens is founder and chief investment officers at Fed Watch Adviserss. Ben, thank you for being with us.I mean, my goodness. Uh, I can't even remember what day it was this week, but it was a long day and a short day allin-one. We had we thought we knew one thing and then an hour and a half later we knew something dif ...

Hey, it is time for money, power, politics. Donald Trump says it is highly unlikely he would fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, but he is still pressuring him online. Today, he demanded Powell lower interest rate after today's after today's fresh round of solid economic data. This is another example of the president going after an institution and creating instability. The folks I talked to on Wall Street in a corporate America, are very relieved that Donald Trump did not try to fire Powell yesterday, which is what ...

🚨 JUST IN: Fed's Waller calls for 25 basis point interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in two weeks. https://t.co/LVvBK4zs5P ...

if in fact President Trump uh gets his wish as is his right under law to appoint a new chair who will be more in line with his views. He said he thinks the interest rate really should be at 1% or even below that. Is that good for Bank of America. Is that good for the economy.Well, let me make two things. One is you're absolutely right. Uh in May of next year, the term of the current Fed chair ends after being reappointed.And you it's the right of the elected uh president to appoint the next uh successor and ...

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that the central bank’s interest-rate-setting panel need not take direction from the chair https://t.co/456w7dMdVB ...