Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The most likely Iranian response to US actions is cyberattacks, as direct attacks on US soil risk escalating the conflict [2][5][11] - Iran has proxies like Hezbollah within the US, posing potential threats to US citizens [3][9] - China's role is complex; it likely prefers de-escalation to avoid oil price increases and supply disruptions, but may not actively solve the problem [12][13][14][15] - Regime change in Iran, while potentially favorable, is unlikely to be easy or without significant cost, based on historical precedents [16][17][18] Nuclear Program & US Response - There is uncertainty about the effectiveness of US strikes against Iran's nuclear program, particularly at Fordo, and whether highly enriched uranium stocks were affected [3][4][6] - A possible consequence of the strikes is Iran accelerating its pursuit of nuclear weapons [7][8] Homeland Security - DHS is taking precautionary measures, including heightened cybersecurity, in response to the situation [2] - The US intelligence community is tracking known members of Hezbollah and Hamas within the US [9] - Iran has the capability to inspire US-based individuals to commit violent acts, which are difficult to prevent [10]

Geopolitical Strategy & Considerations - The U S is weighing factors related to Iran's nuclear program, with President Trump considering both personal and national interests in his decision-making process [1][2] - President Trump faces a divided constituency, balancing traditional conservative internationalists who want to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons with a neo-isolationist MAGA base opposed to intervention [3] - A key consideration for the U S is avoiding a long-term engagement or "forever war," while also aiming to potentially end the Iranian nuclear threat [4] - The destruction of Iran's nuclear program would be a significant blow to the regime, potentially undermining its stability [7] - Ayatollah Khamenei, despite not being liked, is considered a prudent and strategic thinker who has historically shown respect for American military power [7][8] Potential Military Actions & Consequences - A potential U S strike on Fordo or other Iranian nuclear sites, while devastating, may not end Iran's nuclear program [6][9] - The most critical issue is preventing Iran from rebuilding its nuclear program after any potential strike [10] - Iran possesses approximately 300 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, enough for about ten nuclear weapons, along with unaccounted-for centrifuges [12] - Israel may have a plan to take down Fordo without U S intervention, potentially mitigating the need for a broader U S military engagement [17][19] - The U S could focus on preventing Iran from reconstituting its nuclear program, with the threat of U S force serving as a deterrent [19]

Geopolitical Risk & Security - The US may need to use GBU-57 bunker buster bombs, potentially requiring B-2 bombers, to set back Iran's nuclear program by a decade or more [2][5] - The US has moved B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia, an island southeast of Iran in the Indian Ocean [6] - The speaker believes military action is necessary to prevent Iran, described as the largest state sponsor of terror, from obtaining nuclear weapons [4][7] - The speaker suggests targeting two specific nuclear sites in Iran, Natanz and Fordow, rather than Tehran [5][7][8] - A 30,000-pound bomb may be needed, potentially multiple ones, to destroy remote nuclear sites in Iran [9][10] - The speaker claims Iran has been lying about its nuclear enrichment, forcing potential US and Israeli participation [11][16] International Relations & Policy - The speaker criticizes the policy of negotiating with terrorists and state sponsors of terror [14][15] - The speaker references the US withdrawal from nuclear talks with Iran due to non-compliance [15][16] - The speaker draws parallels between the situation with Iran and the WMD concerns in Iraq [18] Regional Instability - The speaker mentions the presence of chemical weapons in Syria, some originating from Iraq, and the strain the Iran conflict is putting on the cleanup efforts [19][20]

former assistant secretary of state, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. General, appreciate your time. I think, correct me if I'm wrong, you were on your way to Iraq, but that airspace has now been closed.Yes. Uh that's true. I was heading down there tomorrow.Uh but they've closed off the airspace of Iraq to all airplanes, and they're going to have that for an undetermined period of time. So, how long would you expect that kind of situation to last. uh until further notice.The ...

Geopolitical Concerns & Defense Stocks - Defense stocks are rallying due to rising geopolitical concerns [1] - The situation's containment depends on Iran's retaliation capabilities, specifically regarding ballistic missiles [2] - Israel's ongoing attacks face challenges in penetrating deep Iranian sites, raising questions about US assistance [2][3] Iran's Nuclear Program & Political Ramifications - The US administration previously offered Iran a deal to enrich uranium under Arab states' supervision, but talks collapsed due to Iran's refusal [7][8] - There's unified political support (excluding the far left) for Israel's defense against Iran and preventing Iran's nuclear weapon development [6][7] Potential Regime Change in Iran - Significant opposition exists against the current regime in Iran, which is already facing economic difficulties and isolation [9] - The possibility of regime change hinges on political support and encouragement from the US and Israel towards Iranian opposition groups [10]

Joining us right now with reaction to Israel's air strikes on Iran, Michael O'Hanlin, who is the director of foreign policy research at Brookings. He's also the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy.And Mike, um, your thoughts on what we saw overnight. There was some indication that we could be seeing some something happening in the Middle East. Certainly, but u maybe this was more than some had anticipated.Hi Becky. Well, it's striking news and obviously ongoing multiple days of additional attack ...

[CC may contain inaccuracies] Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival. This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu making good on his repeated threats to strike Iran and try to cripple its nuclear program.Israel is now bracing for retaliation after Iran's news agency said the attack killed several people, including the head of the ...