| LPG早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/30 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | 华东液化 | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷 | CP预测合 | 纸面进口 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 山东液化气 | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 主力基差 | 气 | 南 | 本 | 现货 | 同价 | 利润 | 2025/05/2 | 4820 | 4493 | 4460 | 598 | 531 | 76 | 591 | 4740 | 7750 | -108 | - | | | 3 | 2025/05/2 | 4820 | 4495 | 4490 | 603 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 29 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 外部消息面利多提振，股指震荡反弹 核心观点 今日各股指早盘均快速上涨，不过之后走势间有所分化，中证 1000 与 中证 500 高位平稳运行，上证 50 与沪深 300 则高位回落，回吐部分涨幅。 股市全市场成交额 12134 亿元，较上日放量 1795 亿元，说明市场情绪有所 回升。消息面，美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 日宣布 的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全 面关税。美国政府关税政策面临的法律挑战，缓解了关税担忧，提升了股票 市场风险偏好。不过关税问题后期面临的变数仍较大，最终裁决或需要美国 最高法院介入，因此该消息对市场情绪的影响偏向短线。总的来说，目前股 指上行空间以及下行空间均较为有限，政策面托底需求以及稳定股市预期 的支撑作用较强，而外部不确定性风险以及内需走弱则分别从风险偏好以 及盈利预期两方面抑制股指的上行动能。预计短期内股指维持区间震荡。 目前期权隐含波动率处于正常区间范围，近期期权隐含波动率有所回 升。 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 9 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 p 2 2.1 基差：数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 824 | 826 | -2.0 | 77 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hebei Shichang Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. is preparing for a listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with potential concerns regarding its production capacity data discrepancies and customer dependency issues being highlighted [1][2]. Production Capacity Data - The company claims a maximum production capacity of 970,000 units per year, but the prospectus for the Beijing Stock Exchange listing states the capacity is only 870,000 units, showing a discrepancy of 100,000 units or 10.31% [2]. - For 2024, the projected production capacity is 1,266,700 units, an increase from 975,000 units in 2023 and 870,000 units in 2022 [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown consistent growth, increasing from 281.52 million yuan in 2022 to 514.86 million yuan in 2024, while net profit after non-recurring items rose from 15.70 million yuan to 61.21 million yuan during the same period [3][4]. - The production and sales rates have remained high, with a production utilization rate of 90.88% in 2024, slightly down from 92.74% in 2023 [3]. Customer Dependency - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 93.22%, 92.48%, and 95.56% of revenue over the reporting period. Notably, sales to the largest customer, Geely Automobile, increased from 134.81 million yuan to 259.74 million yuan, representing over 40% of total revenue, peaking at 50.45% in 2024 [4]. New Projects - A new project for an annual production of 850,000 plastic fuel tanks has been approved, with a total investment of 5.5 million yuan, expected to generate an annual output value of 400 million yuan upon completion in January 2025 [5][8]. - The company plans to raise 171.18 million yuan through this listing, with funds allocated to a project for producing 600,000 high-pressure fuel tanks at Zhejiang Xingchang Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. [5]. Pricing Discrepancies - There is a notable discrepancy in pricing for high-pressure fuel tanks, with the company’s reported selling price exceeding 500 yuan per unit, while a similar product from a subsidiary is priced at approximately 33 yuan per unit, indicating a difference of about 167 yuan or 33.4% [9].

策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 0.38%,需求因子走强0.52%,合成因子 上行0.04%,本周综合信号多头。基本面 因子上,甲醇国内产能利用率下降但进 口量有所回升,供给端多头强度走弱; 甲醇制烯烃装置开工负荷提升,需求端 空头转为中性;内地以及港口库存同比 偏低,库存端多头;甲醇进口利润以及 内蒙-鲁南区域价差因子释放多头信号, 价差端中性偏多。 国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/5/27 黑色板块动量继续下行 商品空头占比小幅上升,黑色板块降幅 较大。目前,截面偏强的板块是贵金属 和软商品,截面偏弱的是黑色板块。具 体来看,黄金时序动量企稳,沪金持仓 量边际回升,白银相对变化较小。有色 量 板块在持仓量上显示出一定分歧,但是 截面上分化较为显著,铜相对偏强,锌 (1) 处在截面偏弱一端。黑色板块,期限结 CTA 构分化收窄,铁矿和螺纹持仓量因子回 落,长周期动量因子下降。能化板块中 化工的截面动量仍然要高于能源品种。 农产品方面,油粕持仓量维持低位,软 商品在期限结构上相对维持截面偏强。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | ...

交易量柱通常代表在与图表所设定时间框架相同的时间段内买入和卖出的单位总数。例如，在日线图中，每一根交易量柱表示当天的市场总交易量；在小 时图中，每根交易量柱表示该小时内的交易量。 不过，在外汇品种中，交易量的计算方式可能略有不同，具体取决于经纪商。 当市场中价格波动时，通常是因为它乘着更高交易量的浪潮前进。有时，这些浪潮是推动价格进入趋势的大潮的一部分；而另一些时候，在交易量的"海 洋"中出现的漩涡会导致价格出现一定程度的无序波动。或者，市场可能风平浪静、交易量低迷，从而形成窄幅震荡区间。 无论市场水面状态如何，价格最终总是"浮"在交易量之上。 许多技术分析者只关注价格行为本身，而忽略了交易量——至少在我浏览各种交易论坛或社交群组时经常看到这种情况，而我自己也承认曾犯过同样的错 误。然而，将价格行为与交易量结合起来观察，可以揭示出一层全新的、可操作的信息。 让我们来看一下交易量在技术分析中的作用，以及如何将这一知识应用于实际交易中。 什么是外汇市场中的"交易量"？ 交易量如何计算？ 外汇市场是场外交易（OTC）市场，也就是说，没有统一的中央交易所。外汇经纪商的图表上只显示他们自身的交易量信息，而不是整个行业的 ...

Supply and Demand - Asian PX supply has increased with overall PX operating rates rising to 69.4% (+1.9%) and domestic PX operating rates reaching 78% (+3.9%) [2] - Demand has also seen an uptick with the restart of 1.2 million tons of PTA capacity from Zhongtai and Honggang, while Jiatuo's 3 million tons PTA unit is under maintenance, leading to PTA operating rates increasing to 77.1% (+0.2%) [2] Market Performance - On May 26, Asian PX prices rose by $8/ton to $834/ton, equivalent to 6905 RMB/ton, driven by crude oil price increases [1] - The spot market remains strong with July and August spot prices showing upward trends, with July at $838 and August at $824 [1] Market Outlook - PX supply is expected to gradually increase due to the recovery of PX profitability and the restart of previously shut-down facilities, while downstream polyester production cuts are being realized, leading to a marginal weakening in PX supply-demand dynamics [3] - Despite the pressure on PX prices, the short-term supply-demand situation remains relatively stable, with tight spot market conditions supporting PX prices [3]

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年5月27日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | -28.91 | IF期现价差 | 7.17 | 16.30% | 13.20% | | | | | | | | | | | 13.90% | H期现价差 | -15.02 | 3.83 | 19.60% | 期现价差 | 16.38 | IC期现价差 | -74.86 | 10.60% | 7.60% | -103.79 | 8.40% | IM期现价去 | 13.89 | 90.00% | | 次月-当月 | -39.40 | -2.00 | 2.80% | 7.50% | 李月-崇月 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of gold options and the increasing volatility in gold trading, highlighting the need for strategic short-term positioning in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The expiration date of gold options is approaching, which typically leads to heightened trading activity and volatility in the gold market [1] - There is a noted inversion in the spot-futures price spread for gold, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and trading strategies [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of short-term strategies for traders to navigate the intensified long and short positions in the gold market [1] - Recommendations for traders include monitoring market trends closely and adjusting positions accordingly to capitalize on the current volatility [1]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 662.5 | 671.0 | -8.5 | I05-I09 | -55.5 | -56.0 | 0.5 | | I09 | 718.0 | 727.0 | -9.0 | I09-I01 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 0.0 | | I01 | 682.5 | 691.5 | -9.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.5 | p 2 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 ...