Core Insights - Multiple shipping and commodity research analysts indicate that oil shipping prices are expected to rise in the short term, with future freight trends dependent on the escalation of the situation and potential actions by Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 1 - Analysts predict a short-term increase in oil shipping prices [1] - Future freight rate trends will be influenced by the degree of escalation in the situation [1] - Iran's potential actions in the Strait of Hormuz will play a critical role in determining shipping costs [1]

地区局势瞬息万变，或令未来通航情况充满不确定性。近日，市场对于有关国家可能试图关闭霍尔木兹 海峡的担忧上升，而最新出现的船只起火事件则令各方担忧加剧。 摩根大通大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva发布的最新报告显示，该行对"最坏情景"的概率预测从7%暴涨 至17%。这意味着霍尔木兹海峡封闭、油价指数级飙升的可能性大幅增加。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，本次地缘冲突已经导致波斯湾油轮市场出现"量缩价涨"的现象。在有 关双方持续交火的影响下，该地区油轮租赁活动几近停滞，但市场运价却因运力供给紧张而逆势飙升。 后续运费走势将取决于局势是否持续升级及有关国家可能对霍尔木兹海峡采取的行动。若有关国家封锁 该海峡，原油及LNG（液化天然气）等能源运输船绕行好望角使航程增加12天至15天，实际总运输成 本（含保费、租金）升幅或达30%至50%，甚至更高。短期来看，封锁或导致油轮运价飙升。但长期而 言，货运量短缺将冲击航运业，同时全球经济也将承受能源价格高企之痛。鉴于该水道对地区及全球经 济的极端重要性，任何封锁行动都难以持久。 6月13日以来，中东地区地缘冲突不断升级，对大宗商品及航运市场的影响已经显现。据央视新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in energy prices, but this energy shock is not expected to have a lasting inflationary effect [1] Group 1 - The potential rise in energy prices is linked to the ongoing developments in the Middle East [1] - The impact of the energy shock is anticipated to be temporary rather than persistent [1]

智通财经6月19日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储在关注以色列和伊朗的冲突，这可能会导致能源 价格上涨，但一般不会对通胀产生持久影响。 鲍威尔：以色列和伊朗的冲突冲突可能导致能源价格上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is monitoring the conflict between Israel and Iran, which could lead to an increase in energy prices, but it is generally not expected to have a lasting impact on inflation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is aware of geopolitical tensions and their potential effects on energy markets [1] - Energy prices may rise due to the conflict, indicating a short-term risk to market stability [1] - The overall impact on inflation is anticipated to be minimal and not persistent [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future conflicts in the Middle East could lead to an increase in energy prices [1] Group 1 - The potential for rising energy prices is linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]

美国天然气期货价格突破4美元/百万英热，因产量下降和需求增加。 天然气期货 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there has been a recent increase in commodity prices, and this trend is expected to continue during the summer [1] Group 1 - Recent commodity price increases have been noted [1] - An expectation of continued upward price trends in the summer has been expressed [1]

巴克莱：在最坏情况下的更大规模冲突情景中，预计布伦特原油价格将突破每桶100美元。 布伦特原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays predicts that if Iran's oil exports are halved, Brent crude oil prices could rise to $85 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of reduced Iranian oil exports on global oil prices is significant, indicating a direct correlation between supply constraints and price increases [1]