全线下跌。 7月5日，加密货币市场走弱，截至发稿，比特币跌超1%，以太坊跌近3%，索尔币跌超3%，狗狗币跌超5%。 据 C oin gla s s 统 计，过 去 近 2 4 小 时 内，加 密 货 币 全 网 爆 仓 人 数 近 9 万 人，爆 仓 金 额 为 2.1 9 亿 美 元 。 其 中，最 大 单 笔 爆 仓 单 发 生 在 Bin a n c e - B T C，价 值 2 7 2 万 美 元 。 | 清算地图 指标 | 爆仓信息 多空比 | | 资金费率 | $ V | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 実部 BTC | ETH | SOL | XRP DOGE | | =Q | | 总爆仓 | | | | | | | 1小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | | 空单爆仓 | | | | $599.7万 | $81.9万 | | $517.8 F | | | | 4小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | | 空单爆仓 | | | | $1868.8万 | $595.3万 | | $1273.5万 | | | | 12小时爆仓 | 多車爆仓 | | 空单爆仓 | | ...

"大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。该法案主要内容包括延 长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免 于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。《纽约时 报》指出，这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路。初步分析显示，该法案不仅会在 未来10年使美国赤字增加约3.3万亿美元，还会减少国家几十年内的税收收入。此种缺口可能 会导致美国的财政轨迹开始发生翻天覆地的变化，并加剧债务危机的担忧。 美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项 立法。危险在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥 巴马总统任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控制债 务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出，在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下，该 法案将进一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 此前，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月下调了美国主权 ...

美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项立 法。危险在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥巴马 总统任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控制债务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出， 在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下，该 法案将进一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 美国国会众议院3日下午以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而 美"法案。该法案已于本月1日获参议院通过。美国国内担忧该法案将进一步加剧美国财政赤字 与债务风险。 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。该法案主要内容包括延长 特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免于纳 税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。《纽约时 报》指出，这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路。初步分析显示，该法案不仅会在未 来10年使美国赤字增加约3.3万亿美元， ...

"大而美"法案因将会导致联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。该法案已 于本月1日获参议院通过。3日，该法案以218票赞成、214票反对的微弱优势在众议院获得通过，所有民 主党议员都投了反对票，此外还有2名共和党议员加入反对阵营。美联社称，此次投票过程极为胶着， 共和党参众院领袖通宵斡旋。 媒体披露称，就连副总统万斯也亲自施压，劝说少数持怀疑态度的议员放弃反对。众议院少数党领袖哈 基姆.杰弗里斯则以长达8小时46分的发言时间，表达对"大而美"法案的反对，打破时任众议院少数党领 袖凯文.麦卡锡2021年在众议院创下的8小时32分钟演讲纪录。 美联社称，"大而美"法案的核心是延长特朗普在首个任期内颁布的4.5万亿美元减税政策，并增加多项 减税政策。此外，法案包括3500亿美元的巨额投资，用于国家安全、驱逐移民以及帮助研发"金穹"天基 导弹防御系统。据路透社3日报道，为加强美国在北极地区的主导地位，法案还将拨款超86亿美元用于 增加美国海岸警卫队在北极的破冰船队。为了抵消税收损失，法案对1.2万亿美元的医疗补助和食品券 计划等进行削减，并大幅取消绿色能源税收抵免。根据美国国会预算办公室的数据， ...

美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案 来源：央视新闻 美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项 立法。危险在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥 巴马总统任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控制债 务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出，在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下， 该法案将进一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 此前，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月下调了美国主权信用评 级，这是第三家下调美国主权信用评级的主要国际评级机构。 "大而美"法案已于本月1日获参议院通过。 当地时间7月4日， 美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。 美国国会众议院3日下午以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而 美"法案。美国国内担忧该法案将进一步加剧美国财政赤字与债务风险。 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。该法案主要内容包括延 长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企 ...

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill aimed at extending tax cuts and significantly reducing social security programs, which has sparked protests among some American citizens [1][3] - President Trump hailed the bill as a "remarkable victory" and a "declaration of independence from national decline," coinciding with the 250th anniversary of the U.S. [1][3] Legislative Details - The bill, comprising approximately 900 pages, integrates Republican priorities and was passed with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, with all Democrats opposing it and two Republicans joining them [3][4] - The core of the bill extends Trump's $4.5 trillion tax cut policy and includes $350 billion in investments for national security and immigration, as well as funding for missile defense systems [4] - To offset tax revenue losses, the bill proposes cuts to $1.2 trillion in Medicaid and food stamp programs and eliminates green energy tax credits [4] Political Reactions - Republican leaders described the bill as the most comprehensive conservative reform in modern history, while Democrats criticized it as a "robbery from the poor to give to the rich" [5] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party were highlighted during the voting process, with some members expressing dissatisfaction with parts of the bill [5] - A Quinnipiac University poll indicated only 29% of voters support the bill, with 55% opposed, suggesting potential political repercussions for Republicans in future elections [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report is interpreted as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, leading to a rise in the dollar index after four consecutive days of decline [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate for May is reported at 2.3%, down from 6.8% three years ago, while the unemployment rate for June stands at 4.1%, up from 3.5% three years ago, indicating increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate recorded a negative value of -0.5% in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous values of 2.4% and 3.1%, suggesting a decline in economic vitality [3] Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, as well as the need to avoid financing fiscal deficits through monetary policy [4] - The current U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with about one-quarter of fiscal revenue allocated to interest payments, prompting the White House to advocate for interest rate cuts to reduce debt servicing costs [3] Political Pressures - The White House expresses dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with President Trump publicly calling for further rate cuts [3] - Potential successors to Fed Chair Powell, such as current Fed Governor Waller and Treasury Secretary Basant, have shown support for quicker rate cuts, indicating internal pressure within the Federal Reserve [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the overall pressure on the real estate market, high-quality projects continue to attract market attention, with notable sales performance from Sunac China Holdings Limited, indicating a steady return to operational normalcy [2] Sales Performance - In the first half of the year, Sunac China reported sales of 23.55 billion yuan, with June alone achieving over 7.5 billion yuan in sales and an average contract sales price of approximately 58,530 yuan per square meter [2] - The Shanghai "One Number" project has been a standout, achieving sales of 6.6 billion yuan in January and over 17 billion yuan in total sales for the first half of the year, ranking first in new home sales nationwide [3] Product Recognition - The "One Number" projects in Shanghai and Beijing have demonstrated strong market demand, with the Beijing project seeing 25 units sold within two weeks of showcasing its model units [3] - Sunac China's top-tier products, such as "One Number" and "Peach Blossom Source," are developed with direct involvement in design and quality control, ensuring high standards [3] Debt Restructuring - Sunac China is making significant progress in its debt restructuring efforts, with plans to issue 754 million shares to facilitate the repayment of approximately 5.6 billion yuan in domestic bonds [4] - The company has received sufficient support for its offshore debt restructuring, which is expected to resolve group-level debt issues [5] Market Confidence and Future Projects - The company is set to launch additional high-quality projects in the second half of the year, including the final high-rise products at the Shanghai "One Number" and other projects in Tianjin, Wuhan, and other cities, which will further validate its product competitiveness [5] - As of the end of 2024, Sunac China will have approximately 130 million square meters of land reserves, with about 70% located in core first- and second-tier cities, showcasing strong asset value and risk resilience [5]

Core Points - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was passed in the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 to 214, and is set to be signed by Trump on July 4 as a celebration of Independence Day [1] - The act is a significant tax and spending bill, extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, raising the debt ceiling, and increasing spending on border security, defense, and energy production [1][3] - Critics argue that the act primarily benefits wealthy individuals and corporations while low-income populations bear the brunt of the cuts to social welfare programs [1][5] Tax Cuts and Revenue Impact - The act is estimated to reduce U.S. tax revenue by approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade, with many tax cuts from the 2017 act being made permanent [3][4] - Corporate tax rates will be permanently reduced from 35% to 21%, and additional tax incentives for business investments will be extended [3][4] - The act raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting households earning between $200,000 and $500,000, particularly in high-tax states [4] Social Welfare and Healthcare Cuts - The act is projected to cut $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, disproportionately affecting low-income populations [5] - Medicaid funding is expected to be reduced by about $1 trillion, potentially leaving 12 million low-income individuals without healthcare coverage [7] - The tightening of eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) may lead to a $300 billion reduction in spending [8] Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the act will increase the federal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade, raising annual deficit rates to around 7% [9] - The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion, with projections indicating that by 2034, U.S. national debt could reach 124% of GDP, the highest in history [9][11] - Interest payments on federal debt are already surpassing military spending, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11] Defense and Energy Spending - The act includes an additional $150 billion for defense spending, with a focus on missile defense systems and military priorities [13] - Approximately $175 billion will be allocated for immigration and border enforcement, including $46.5 billion for border wall construction [14] - The act significantly reduces incentives for clean energy while increasing support for traditional energy sectors, reflecting a shift in U.S. energy policy [14][15]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着关税政策的影响晚于预期，美国税收与支出法案暂时支撑经济，目前美联储对"滞"的担忧让位于"胀"的风险。 据新华社报道，当地时间7月3日，美国国会众议院以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了美国总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。此外，美国 6月非农就业人数大幅超预期，劳动力市场暂时抵御了美国贸易和移民政策带来的不确定性。 芝商所美联储观察工具显示，美联储在7月29日至30日的会议上几乎没有降息的可能性，而在非农报告发布前降息的概率约为25%。美联储9月降息的概率也 跌破70%。 其中的关键原因是，6月政府部门就业人数大幅增加了7.3万人，居所有类别之首，州政府和地方部门的就业大幅增加，尤其是与教育行业相关的工作岗位。 联邦政府仍受到政府效率部裁员的影响，损失了7000个工作岗位。 不过，非农报告也显示，美国6月私营部门就业人数仅增加7.4万人，为去年10月以来最低，且主要来自医疗保健行业。这一数字与此前"小非农"就业增长放 缓的趋势相符，因为雇主们正努力应对反复无常的贸易政策。 中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅对记者表示，总体来看，6月美国新增非农总数偏稳 ...