Group 1: Industry Insights - The China Automobile Industry Association is actively working to prevent "involution spillover" by promoting respect for local cultures and laws during overseas expansion, aiming for orderly growth [1] - The association has reported positive progress in anti-involution efforts, with mainstream industry players taking proactive measures to enhance self-discipline [1] Group 2: Company Performance - GAC Group expects a net loss of 1.82 billion to 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a net profit of 1.516 billion yuan in the same period last year, due to slow sales of new energy models and the impact of price wars [1] - XPeng Motors has officially communicated a commitment to a 60-day payment term to suppliers, marking a significant adjustment in its payment practices [1] Group 3: Market Developments - Volkswagen is reportedly planning to close its Nanjing factory by the end of this year, marking the first complete shutdown of a manufacturing plant in China, although SAIC Volkswagen claims operations are normal [2] - Tesla will open its first experience center in Mumbai, India, on July 15, showcasing popular models and providing test drives and consultations, indicating its entry into the Indian market [3] - Mercedes-Benz India reported a 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April to June, reaching 4,238 units, driven by demand for high-end models and a 157% increase in electric vehicle sales [4] Group 4: Regulatory Impact - Volkswagen has paused deliveries of an electric vehicle to the U.S. due to dissatisfaction with seat width and significant punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have increased from 2.5% to 27.5% since April, potentially costing German manufacturers over 11 billion euros this year [5]

"反内卷"聚焦新兴制造业 随着政策持续发力，"反内卷"已成为市场新的投资主线，钢铁、光伏等板块强势反弹。截至7月11日，6 月23日以来国泰钢铁ETF上涨12.18%，汇添富光伏龙头ETF、银华光伏50ETF、华泰柏瑞光伏ETF等涨 幅超过13%。 资金面则呈现显著分化。对于相关传统行业如钢铁板块，资金选择获利了结；而新兴领域如光伏行业， 则吸引资金持续加仓。Choice数据显示，截至7月10日，6月23日以来国泰钢铁ETF被净赎回7.29亿元。 同期，光伏主题ETF净申购额合计20.82亿元。其中，华泰柏瑞光伏ETF份额增至169.61亿份，创上市以 来新高。 这种分歧的背后，与"反内卷"的聚焦方向密切相关。富国基金认为，"反内卷"聚焦行业并非黑色板块相 关的传统行业，而是光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商平台等新兴领域。 富国基金分析称，传统上游资源品的资本开支扩张情况并不严重，因此短期对于传统上游资源品影响不 大。"反内卷"聚焦中下游制造，对于初期的上游商品来说，或带来需求小幅下行。下游竞争格局优化、 终端需求改善后，有望再度拉动上游需求。 投资锚定"质"与"势" ◎记者 赵明超 近期，"反内卷"相关投资机 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a transformation towards electrification and intelligent networking, facing structural challenges and intensified competition [1][2] - The 2025 China Automotive Forum held discussions on moving away from detrimental "involution" competition and focusing on value creation [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) emphasizes the need for a long-term mechanism to shift market dynamics from price-driven to value-driven [1][4] Group 2 - In the first half of 2023, China's automotive production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, with year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) have become a dominant force in the market, with production and sales reaching 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, marking year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [2][3] - NEVs accounted for 44.3% of total new car sales, and the total NEV ownership ratio has reached 10% [2][3] Group 3 - The ongoing "anti-involution" discussions highlight the need for industry players to address the negative impacts of price wars on profitability and innovation [4][6] - Industry leaders stress the importance of collaboration and trust among global automotive companies to foster sustainable development [4][6] - The call for a return to "long-termism" in business practices is gaining traction, with industry representatives advocating for a focus on brand value and customer insights [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guosheng Technology, reported significant revenue growth in its photovoltaic business but faced a substantial decline in gross margin due to competitive pressures and falling prices in the solar industry [1][6][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 2.094 billion yuan, with photovoltaic business revenue reaching 1.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.12% [1]. - The gross margin for the photovoltaic business was -0.50%, a decrease of 16.90 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Revenue from photovoltaic modules and battery business was 1.908 billion yuan, up 125.03% year-on-year, while the gross margin was -0.82%, down 14.88 percentage points [1][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe competition, leading to irrational pricing and significant losses across the supply chain [7][8]. - The prices of key raw materials, particularly silicon wafers, have seen drastic declines, impacting the pricing of photovoltaic products [6][7]. - The market for photovoltaic products is characterized by structural oversupply, with global demand still strong but supply exceeding 1,100 GW against 600 GW of new installations [8][10]. Group 3: Contractual Details - The company has secured major contracts with state-owned enterprises, including a 539 million yuan contract for a 400 MW offshore photovoltaic project and a 749 million yuan contract for a 600 MW salt-light complementary photovoltaic project [10]. - The contracts were primarily obtained through bidding and business negotiations, with no related party transactions involved [4][10]. Group 4: Price Trends - The price of monocrystalline P-type silicon wafers dropped from 4.43 yuan per piece in January 2023 to 1.15 yuan per piece by December 2024, a decrease of 74.04% [6]. - The price of PERC battery cells fell from 0.85 yuan per watt in January 2023 to 0.275 yuan per watt by December 2024, a decline of 67.65% [6][7].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 招商研究一周回顾 （0704-0711） 招商研发宏观组与策略组重要观点回顾摘要： 宏观组。 1、对宏观政策而言，反内卷政策与传统的财政、货币政策还是有较大区别，也就 是说下半年的宏观政策手段可能是一些非传统的措施。但是只要能看到价格形势 的边际转变，同样也会对资产价格造成影响。那么大致的方向应该是：权益产品 的基本面将逐步改善，价格水平将从市场收益率的下行动力转变为上行压力。短 期内，顺周期商品价格可能延续底部回升的走势。 2、特朗普签署"大而美"法案。特朗普对政府及共和党控制力稳固并加强，其地位 在 6 月以来的一系列"成功"后得到巩固。司法方面，特朗普获得美国最高法院对 总统行政权力的支持。一方面特朗普为后续施政扫除了障碍，将更坚定其当前路 线，整体政策倾向不会发生大的变化（即核心关注国内移民、经济议题，对外方 面关注关税贸易议题、大国关系再平衡）；另一方面，需要警惕特朗普在政治上 的自信进一步加强，或有可能导致其在关税贸易等对外议题上不太容易妥协。 策略组。 1、从中期的趋势来看，"反内卷"是推动指数走牛的关键力量，"反内卷"驱动上市 公司削减资产开支，出清过剩产能，经 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01% to 3510.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears to be strong in the short term, with over 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors today included securities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and steel, while financials, telecommunications, photovoltaics, and dividends lagged [1] - The market showed a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks [1] Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a potential main line for the second half of the year, with a focus on upstream sectors leading the way [3][4] - Recent meetings emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2015 [3][4] - The ongoing decline in PPI has drawn policy attention, suggesting potential supply-side adjustments in sectors like steel, coal, and cement [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The supply-demand mismatch in upstream resource products is significant, leading to price declines as firms engage in price competition [4][6] - Current demand conditions are similar to those in July of the previous year, but prices have adjusted downward, aligning better with supply-demand dynamics [6] - The performance of consumer goods differs, with companies increasingly adopting price reductions to boost sales volumes [6][7] Historical Context - Historical cases of supply-side contraction have shown that market reactions often lag behind policy announcements, with stock prices typically responding after initial skepticism [7][9] - Past supply-side reforms have led to significant price increases in commodities, although demand-side pressures remain a concern [9][12] International Factors - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with recent non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [12][13] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff strategies under the Trump administration are expected to create uncertainty in the market [15][16]

Group 1 - The construction industry is advocating against "involution" competition, aiming for industry transformation [2] - The central economic work conference in December highlighted the need to address "involution" competition, marking the beginning of this initiative [3] - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasized the importance of regulating low-price competition and guiding companies to improve product quality [3] Group 2 - New industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic products are also experiencing "involution" competition characterized by high investment and low output [3][4] - Local government support and protectionism are significant factors contributing to the persistence of "involution" in these emerging industries [4][5] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a situation where production capacity exceeds demand, leading to significant price drops across various segments [3][5] Group 3 - The lack of large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors is concerning, as companies continue to operate despite losses [5] - Local governments often view mergers or market exits as failures, leading to continued support for underperforming companies [5][6] - The essence of combating "involution" is to allow businesses to operate freely, with a focus on product quality and innovation [6] Group 4 - The central government recognizes the need to regulate local government and corporate behavior to foster a competitive market environment [6] - It is crucial for local governments to strengthen governance and avoid interfering with market dynamics to promote a healthy business ecosystem [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on addressing key challenges and regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises [1] - A comprehensive "anti-involution" initiative is being launched to combat unhealthy competition driven by price undercutting and quality degradation [1][6] - The key to breaking the cycle of "involution" lies in policy support, industry self-regulation, and proactive enterprise strategies, including technological innovation and global market expansion [1][2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Companies must embrace technological innovation to enhance product performance and reduce production costs, thereby gaining a competitive edge [2] - The example of Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) illustrates how innovation can help companies escape price wars by creating differentiated products [2] - The shift from passive capacity control to active transformation through technology integration is essential for industry advancement [2] Group 3: Global Market Expansion - In a saturated domestic market, companies are encouraged to explore international markets, but must ensure genuine market integration rather than merely exporting [3][4] - Successful international expansion requires establishing local entities, gaining trust, and creating effective value connections within the supply chain [3] - Collaborative efforts among leading enterprises and their supply chains are crucial for achieving global market presence [4][5] Group 4: Industry Ecosystem Improvement - The root cause of "involution" is identified as low-level repeated construction and overcapacity, necessitating supply-side structural reforms [6][8] - Policies should be implemented to limit new capacity projects and promote the elimination of outdated production capacity [6][8] - Industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions can enhance market stability and foster innovation by reducing the number of participants [7][8] Group 5: Capacity Control Measures - Recent trends in the photovoltaic market show significant price drops, prompting companies to adopt self-regulation agreements to manage capacity [7] - The focus on capacity control includes both limiting new projects and adjusting existing capacity through mergers and restructuring [7][8] - The government can support the elimination of outdated capacity through regulatory measures and incentives for industry upgrades [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bull market is not over, and the upward trend of the market remains intact due to three main reasons [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The banking sector's significant drop allows for the inflow of funds into small and mid-cap stocks, leading to a broad market rally [1]. - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index showing a "doji" candlestick pattern, the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index exhibited healthy trends, indicating that major funds are shifting towards the technology sector [1]. - Today's trading volume exceeded 1.7 trillion, marking the fifth occurrence this year, which is crucial for market confidence and potential upward movement [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The real estate, photovoltaic, and glass sectors have reached a temporary peak, while the non-involution sectors are expected to benefit from rising prices, particularly in the rare metals sector [2]. - The innovation drug sector is anticipated to continue reaching new highs due to multiple positive developments [2]. - The new regulations from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will remove underperforming stocks from the ChiNext Index, setting the stage for a potential surge in the technology sector next week [2].

自2024年7月政治局会议提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争，至2025年7月1日中央财经委员会正式提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动 落后产能有序退出，反内卷相关政策是在不断推进加强的。当前外有关税冲击、出口环境恶劣，加剧国内产能过剩；内有多行业长期有 规模无利润，行业生态日益恶劣，已陷入低价通缩循环。因此治理无序竞争、调整产能结构、促进产业升级的反内卷势在必行。特别是 光伏、汽车、钢铁等重点行业。 此次会议研讨后，我们认为反内卷影响周期长，至少是下半年一条交易主线，部分板块存在投资机会。商品主要关注多晶硅，股票关注 通威和隆基，同时股指300也是较好的标的。 具体商品来看： 以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者能化组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品期货 和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述 进入7月，"反内卷"新一轮供给侧改革论调，已开始成为近期商品交易的一大主线。此轮反内卷与以往有何不同，是否将是下半年的投资 主线，各板块又存在哪些投资机 ...