◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：上周金价持续下行，内外金价均跌破 60 日均线。伊朗和以色列停战 ...

Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]

2024年3月22日晚，俄罗斯莫斯科州克罗库斯城音乐厅发生严重恐袭事件，造成144人死亡、 551人受伤。 来 源：央视新闻 当地时间6月29日，总台记者获悉， 参与俄罗斯莫斯科州克罗库斯城音乐厅恐怖袭击的作案人员 在被审讯过程中供认，恐袭事件的组织者是乌克兰。 供词显示，作案人员使用的武器来自乌克兰境内。作案后，他们原计划前往布良斯克州并由接应 小组协助进入乌克兰境内。乌方向每名作案人员许以100万卢布的酬劳。 目前，乌方对此暂无回应。 乌方对此暂无回应。 佩斯科夫：俄方希望近日确定俄乌第三轮谈判时间 总台记者 当地时间6月29日获悉，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫就乌克兰问题接受采访时表 示，俄乌双方代表近期并未会面，俄方希望双方第三轮谈判的时间能够在近日内确定。他 说， 就乌克兰问题的谈判进程在很大程度上取决于乌方立场以及美国调解工作的效率 。 佩斯科夫还指出，在谈判中必须考虑现实的地面状况（即指战场形势）。 ...

来源：央视新闻客户端 俄罗斯国防部29日发布战报称，在过去一天中，俄军已经控制顿涅茨克地区的新乌克兰卡定 居点。俄军当天使用包括"匕首"高超音速导弹等武器，对乌克兰的军工系统设施和炼油企业 发动了大规模打击。俄军在哈尔科夫、顿涅茨克、第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克等方向打退乌军多 次进攻并发动攻势。俄防空部队击落102架固定翼无人机。 【导读】 俄发动大规模打击 乌称研发拦截型无人机 乌空军29日通报称，自当地时间28日19点起，俄罗斯向乌克兰发射477架无人机，以及60枚 各型号导弹。乌军通过火力和电子战压制，击落和拦截436架无人机，击落38枚导弹。乌克 兰媒体报道称，这是俄罗斯自冲突开始以来发动的最大规模空袭之一。乌克兰空军发言人伊 格纳特当天表示，为了应对俄军强度日益增加的无人机袭击，乌克兰正在研发拦截型无人 机，并组建配备这一装备的新防空部队。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around former President Trump's support for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu amidst ongoing political and military tensions in Israel, particularly regarding the handling of the recent Israel-Palestine conflict and Netanyahu's legal troubles [1][3] - Trump criticized the Israeli prosecutors for their actions against Netanyahu, labeling it as political persecution and emphasizing Netanyahu's cooperation with the U.S. in addressing the Iranian nuclear threat [1][3] - Thousands of Israelis protested in Tel Aviv against Netanyahu's government, expressing dissatisfaction with its management of the renewed Israel-Palestine conflict [3] Group 2 - Netanyahu is currently facing legal challenges, including charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, which could lead to significant prison sentences if convicted [3] - The Israeli legal system is currently deliberating on Netanyahu's request to postpone his trial, with a hearing scheduled to discuss this matter [3] - Trump's previous support for Netanyahu included calls to dismiss the corruption charges against him, indicating a continued political alliance [3]

Conflict Situation - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of Ukrainian Starlink satellite communications by the "Western" group [2] - A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet crashed, resulting in the death of the pilot [2] - Russian forces announced the occupation of Novoukraiinka in eastern Ukraine [2] - Ukraine reported that Russia launched 477 drones and 60 missiles at Ukraine during the night [2] Other Developments - Ukraine announced its withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Landmines [2] - High-ranking officials from Russian and American intelligence agencies held a call to discuss "issues of interest" [2] - Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated that Russia hopes to determine the timing for the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations soon [2] - The Kremlin emphasized that European sanctions will not bring Russia to the negotiation table [2] - The Polish Air Force reported that Poland and its allies have scrambled fighter jets to ensure the security of Polish airspace [2]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings for certain areas in northern Gaza [1] - Israel claims to have arrested over 60 Hamas members in the largest operation in the West Bank [1] - According to the media office in Gaza, 580 people have died while receiving food aid at a "US-Israel" assistance center, with the ongoing conflict resulting in 56,500 deaths in Gaza [1] Group 2: Iran-Israel Conflict - Israel's oil refinery is expected to fully resume operations by October 2025 [2] - The flight suspension in northern, southern, and western Iran has been extended until June 30 at 14:00 [2] - Iranian military chief Mousavi expressed strong doubts about Israel's commitment to a ceasefire [2] - Former US President Trump stated that three Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed, and if Iran can achieve peace, sanctions will be lifted [2] Group 3: Other Developments - The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, indicated that Iran could still produce enriched uranium within months [3] - The Saudi Defense Minister and the Iranian military chief discussed regional developments and efforts to maintain security and stability [3] - An Israeli court agreed to Prime Minister Netanyahu's request to postpone a hearing [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces reported multiple recent airstrikes in Syria [3]

乌克兰《基辅独立报》称，包括远离前线的西部地区在内，该国全境都响起了防空警报。当 地时间28日晚间，乌克兰空军已提前警告称，俄罗斯轰炸机和无人机将瞄准多个地区实施打 击。 据报道，扎波罗热、利沃夫、伊万诺-弗兰科夫斯克及切尔卡瑟州等多地发生爆炸。 来源：参考消息 央视新闻 据德新社6月29日援引乌克兰媒体报道称，俄罗斯于夜间对乌克兰全境发动了新一轮大规模导 弹和无人机袭击。 俄罗斯称对乌军工设施等发起大规模攻击 乌克兰媒体报道称，夜间基辅也传出爆炸声。 《基辅独立报》援引切尔卡瑟州州长的话称，初步报告显示至少3人受伤，民用基础设施遭到 破坏。其他地区也报告了袭击造成的损毁。 该报援引波兰武装部队作战指挥部的消息称，为应对与波兰接壤的乌克兰西部地区遭受的袭 击，波兰已紧急出动战斗机，并启动地面防空系统。 另据美联社29日报道，乌克兰空军发言人尤里·伊格纳特称，考虑到无人机和各种类型的导 弹，此次夜间袭击是对该国"最大规模的空袭"。 俄发动新一轮大规模袭击 乌称击落拦截大量无人机和导弹 当地时间6月29日，俄罗斯国防部发布战报称，在过去一天中，俄军已经控制顿涅茨克地区的 新乌克兰卡定居点 。此外， 俄军使用精确制 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant escalation in military actions, with the Russian military launching a large-scale airstrike involving 477 drones and 60 missiles against Ukraine [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky calls for increased air defense support from Western allies, citing the need for enhanced capabilities in response to recent attacks [1] - The Russian Defense Ministry reports successful operations in various regions, claiming control over new settlements and targeting Ukrainian military and industrial facilities [2] Group 2 - In the past week, Russian forces have reportedly fired 114 missiles and over 1200 drones, along with dropping more than 1100 aerial bombs on Ukraine [1] - The article details the casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces, with over 1235 personnel reported killed or injured, alongside the destruction of military equipment [2] - Russian air defense successfully intercepted a Ukrainian missile and a significant number of drones, indicating ongoing military engagements [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential positive impact of reduced external disturbances on the market, particularly regarding the US-China trade conflict [3][4] - There are indications that the trade conflict may be easing, which could provide upward support for the market [3] - The US Treasury Secretary has suggested a possible two-month extension of the tariff exemption period, which could alleviate market uncertainty [4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the tariff exemption for China may also be extended, potentially benefiting the Chinese market [4] - President Trump has made statements suggesting progress in trade negotiations, which could lead to a temporary balance in the market [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring these developments for potential market reactions in the coming weeks [3][4]