特朗普的关税给美联储带来了两个相互矛盾的挑战。首先，它们提高了价格，削弱了降息的理由。其 次，关税削弱了信心和需求，从而加强了降息的理由。 迄今为止，美联储一直专注于第一种风险，自去年12月以来一直将利率目标维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 美联储可能很快就要转向第二种风险。 越来越多的证据表明，尽管征收了关税，但通胀比人们担心的要温和，而劳动力市场可能正在恶化。 美联储下周开会时不必采取行动。与去年9月相比，现在的紧迫性有所减弱，当时的利率整整提高了一 个百分点，失业率上升带来了衰退的气息。未来几个月，关税效应可能会更加明显。 但美联储官员在展望和言论中需要承认风险正在发生变化。他们也可以拍拍自己的胸脯，因为经济的发 展实际上与他们九个月前开始宽松政策时的预期基本一致。 问题在于关税是否会推动趋势走高。好消息是，在过去几个月里，这一趋势有所缓解。 通胀率迟迟未能回到美联储2%的目标，一个关键原因是服务价格的顽固不化，而这在很大程度上要归 咎于住房成本的降温速度比经济学家和美联储根据私人房租数据所预期的要慢。 但现在不一样了。专门研究通胀数据的独立预测师谢里夫（Omair Sharif）说："我们在住房方面的 ...

金十数据6月12日讯，美国初请失业金人数四周平均值上升，强化了美国就业市场可能正在放缓的看 法。潘森宏观经济学家奥利弗·艾伦写道，申请失业金人数通常在每年的这个时候攀升，但随后下降。 即便如此，最近申请失业救济人数的攀升至少在一定程度上是真实的。自去年秋季以来，未经调整的52 周平均申请失业救济人数一直呈上升趋势。整个美国市场的裁员率仍然很低，但最近似乎有所回升。预 计由于关税，招聘活动将会减弱。 美国劳动力市场出现放缓迹象 ...

由于学年将于本月结束，而一些州允许非教学人员在漫长的暑假期间领取福利，申请人数可能会继续上 升。尽管在特朗普的激进关税引发的经济不确定性下，雇主留住工人，没有出现大规模裁员，但劳动力 市场正在逐渐失去动力。白宫对移民的打击也减缓了就业增长。5月份非农就业岗位增加13.9万个，低 于去年同期的19.3万个。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至6月7日当周初请失业金人数 24.8万人，预期24万人，前值由24.7万人修正为 24.8万人;这是自去年10月以来的最高水平。这些数据可能是受到学年结束、学校放假的影响。在2024 年，初请失业金人数在6月初达到了较高水平。这进一步表明失业的美国人重新找到工作的所需时间更 长了。美国至5月31日当周续请失业金人数 195.6万人，预期191万人，前值由190.4万人修正为190.2万 人，为2021年底以来的最高水平。 初请失业金人数与招聘放缓的情况相吻合，这表明美国失业人员正在艰难地寻找工作。然而，该报告所 涵盖的时期包括了阵亡将士纪念日以及一些州的暑假开学前的假期，这使得数据的波动性更大。 彭博经济学家Eliza Winger表示："雇主对经济增长前景持谨慎态度，这导致招聘率 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧元区经济迄今表现出相当的韧性，得益于强劲的劳动力市场。 ...

美国经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯指出，当前美国劳动力市场正承受着招聘疲软与数据修正加速的双重困 境。 具体来看，美国5月新增就业人数达13.9万，虽超出市场普遍预期的12.5万，但此前数据的大幅修正却掩 盖了这一积极表象。其中，3月最初报告的22.4万新增就业人数近乎被腰斩，向下修正至仅12万。 汤姆斯表示，5月的就业数据或许同样存在虚高成分。他在近期的报告中预计，随着8月初第三次估算数 据的发布，5月新增就业人数可能会被下修至约10万。 关于就业数据修正愈发频繁的现象，汤姆斯认为这可能与小企业延迟提交数据有关。这类小企业往往受 高利率和关税成本的冲击最为严重。 他形象地指出，小企业宛如"煤矿里的金丝雀"，由于缺乏足够的财务能力来应对关税带来的前期成本， 同时又面临着极高的借贷成本，所以在招聘和资本支出决策方面表现得极为谨慎。 今日周四（6月12日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于8862一线上方，今日开盘于8859元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报8852元/千克，下跌0.49%，最高触及8885元/千克，最低下探8794元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 此外，汤姆斯还提到，政府就业 ...

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

以下文章来源于图数室 ，作者图数室 图数室 . 新浪新闻出品《图数室》栏目。 关注我们，用数据读懂热点。 本文来自微信公众号： 图数室 ，作者：图数室，题图来自：视觉中国 曾几何时，35岁成了无数职场人心头的一道"隐形红线"。招聘启事悄悄划线，单位用工默默设限， 职业选择逐渐变窄…… "35岁危机"一度成为大龄劳动者焦虑的代名词。 但如今，这道无形门槛似乎正在松动。山东、新疆、北京等地陆续打破招聘的年龄限制，部分岗位甚 至放宽至45岁。 伴随劳动力结构的老化与经验价值的重估，一个更包容、更理性的职场时代，正在悄然开启。 部分地区开始放宽招聘年龄限制 很长一段时间，"35岁职场危机"如同一把无形的标尺，卡在无数求职者的职业道路：企业招聘隐形 歧视、公务员考试设限、中年转岗举步维艰...... 但近年来，随着人口结构变化和人才观念升级，"35岁职业门槛"迎来转机——山东、新疆、北京、 河南等多地相继出台政策，明确要求机关事业单位、国有企业破除招聘中的年龄限制，把部分岗位年 龄放宽至45周岁 （以下） 群体。 | 哪些地区 | | 民制闻 出品 冒险后 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 放宽年龄限 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a profound structural change driven by the Trump administration's strict immigration policies, with May's non-farm payrolls dropping by 696,000, the largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is being artificially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in labor supply, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services [3] - Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, only 139,000 new jobs were added in May, indicating a shrinking labor supply rather than an increase in job opportunities [3] Group 2 - The artificial labor shortage is causing multiple economic impacts, including rising wage levels that may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a long-term reduction in the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that average monthly job growth may remain at 170,000 in 2024 but decline to 90,000 by the end of 2025 and further to 80,000 in 2026, with the "breakeven job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment potentially dropping to as low as 50,000 per month [3][4] - The structural changes in the labor market present unprecedented policy dilemmas for the Federal Reserve, as tight labor conditions and wage pressures necessitate a more hawkish monetary policy, while the ongoing reduction in economic growth potential requires policy flexibility [4] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies complicates economic forecasts, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net immigration numbers to fall to 2 million and 1.5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly lower than the 3.3 million in 2023 [4] - This uncertainty not only affects the labor market but also has broader implications for consumption and investment, potentially impacting the overall economy [4] - Market participants should be cautious of the chain reactions stemming from these policy distortions, as short-term labor shortages may support a stronger dollar, while long-term growth potential reductions could lead to downward pressure on the dollar [4]

Core Points - The "invisible red line" of age 35 has historically created anxiety for older job seekers in the workplace [1][4] - Recent changes in policies across various regions in China are loosening age restrictions for hiring, with some positions now open to candidates up to 45 years old [2][5] - The labor market is transitioning towards a more inclusive and rational approach, valuing experience and older workers [3][8] Group 1: Age Restrictions in Hiring - Regions such as Shandong, Xinjiang, Beijing, and Henan have implemented policies to eliminate age limits in recruitment for public sector jobs [5][7] - The average age of the labor force in China has increased from 32.25 years in 1985 to 39.72 years in 2022 [7] Group 2: Demographics and Labor Market Trends - The demographic shift shows that individuals aged 30 to 49 make up over 50% of the employed population, with the 30-39 age group at 27.6% and the 40-49 age group at 25.1% [11] - The total labor force aged 16-59 peaked at 930 million in 2012 and has since declined to 860 million in 2023, indicating an aging workforce [13] Group 3: Value of Experience - Older job seekers possess unique advantages, combining extensive industry experience with peak physical and execution capabilities [8] - The labor market is moving from a "quantity dividend" to a "quality dividend," with older workers becoming a crucial part of the workforce [14][23] Group 4: Changing Perceptions of Age - The traditional view of the "golden age" for employment has shifted downward to 35 years over the past three decades, but this trend may be reversing [19][24] - Research suggests that the age-income curve in China may increase, with the "golden age" for employment potentially rising to 45-50 years by 2035 [24]

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the U.S. immigration landscape are distorting the employment market, making it harder for investors and policymakers to accurately assess the actual slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - A reduction in immigration supply could lead to a tighter labor market, potentially suppressing the rise in unemployment rates, despite being a temporary and artificial effect [1] - Recent data shows a decrease of 696,000 jobs in May, the largest single-month drop since the historic decline at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, with some economists attributing this decline to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown [1][2] Group 2: Employment Growth Metrics - The "breakeven" employment growth value, which indicates the net new jobs needed to keep up with the growth of the working-age population and maintain stable unemployment rates, is declining [4] - Morgan Stanley economists noted that the average monthly "breakeven" employment growth was 210,000 last year, dropping to 170,000 this year, and projected to fall to 90,000 by the end of the year and 80,000 next year [8] - Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics predicts that due to weak labor supply growth, the "breakeven" employment growth is rapidly approaching 50,000 per month [8] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The low unemployment rate may persist but could be due to misleading reasons, as indicated by Sweet [9] - If predictions hold true, monthly job growth in the U.S. may continue to slow without raising the unemployment rate, creating a confusing signal for investors and policymakers [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the labor market's stability and low unemployment, but acknowledged the need to examine a broader set of labor market indicators for a more accurate assessment [10] Group 4: Immigration Projections - The Congressional Budget Office projected net immigration to be 2 million this year and 1.5 million next year, down from 3.3 million in 2023, but these estimates may be overly optimistic given the Trump administration's hardline stance on immigration [11] - Morgan Stanley economists have significantly revised their net immigration forecasts down to 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, suggesting a potential "false" tight labor market with monthly non-farm job growth far below 100,000 [11]