文字早评 2025/07/01 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.59%，创指+1.35%，科创 50+1.54%，北证 50+0.52%，上证 50+0.16%，沪深 300+0.37%， 中证 500+0.88%，中证 1000+1.26%，中证 2000+1.54%，万得微盘+1.67%。两市合计成交 15176 亿，较上 一日-581 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、在岸人民币兑美元收盘报 7.1656，较上一交易日上涨 34 点，创 2024 年 11 月 8 日以来新高。在岸人 民币兑美元 6 月升值 0.41%，二季度累计升值 1.2%，上半年累升 1.86%。 2、《深圳证券交易所股票发行上市审核业务指引第 8 号——轻资产、高研发投入认定标准》发布。 3、中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.7，预期 49.7，前值 49.5；非制造业 PMI 为 50.5，预期 50.5，前值 50.3；综合 PMI 为 50.7，前值 50.4。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.75%/-1.09%/-1.28%/-2.04%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.89%/- ...

专题报告 2025-07-01 从"火法"到"湿法"，如何看待镍价成本支撑？ 吴坤金 报告要点： 近期镍价持续下跌，逐步逼近今年前期低点。在此背景下，镍价底部支撑水平成为当前市场关 注的焦点。本篇报告梳理了不同工艺对应的镍价成本支撑位置，为读者理解当前镍价下跌的主 要驱动因素以及未来走势提供参考。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 图 1：印尼内贸火法镍矿价格 图 2：精炼镍相对镍铁溢价（元/镍） 数据来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 数据来源：Mysteel、五矿期货研究中心 湿法工艺成本有所抬升，但仍处于较低水平 HPAL 湿法工艺是红土镍矿主要处理方式之一，由于原料可以使用低品位镍矿，成本优势明显。 2024 年以来，随着华友钴业、力勤资源和格林美等中资企业的湿法项目在印尼大规模投产，印 尼 MHP 产量快速增加，目前单月产量最高达到 4.05 万吨镍金属。 中长期来看，由于湿法矿资源充 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency, pig prices in 2025 may show a downward trend year-on-year, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year. Additionally, profit expectations are exceeded due to declining costs, with a focus on high-quality pig companies that exhibit significant changes in marginal costs and have a good financial position [1]. Group 1 - The analysis suggests a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices for 2025 [1] - The pig market is expected to operate relatively steadily within the year [1] - Profit expectations are anticipated to exceed due to a decrease in costs [1] Group 2 - There is an emphasis on monitoring high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs [1] - Companies with a good financial position are highlighted as key areas of focus [1]

Core Insights - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) has implemented a series of layoffs in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, totaling 1,223 employees since April 2024, with 874 of those occurring in 2025 alone, nearing an annual total of 900 layoffs [1][3][4] - The layoffs are part of a strategic restructuring plan aimed at achieving significant cost savings, with a target of $1.5 billion by the end of 2025 and an increased goal of $3.5 billion by 2027 [3][4] Layoff Implementation Schedule - The layoffs will be executed in phases, starting on September 25, 2025, and concluding by January 15, 2026 [2] - It remains uncertain whether the layoffs will affect the commercial and late-stage R&D teams, which are critical to BMS's operations [2] Cost Reduction Strategy - BMS's layoffs are part of a broader cost-cutting strategy initiated in April 2024, with an initial plan to cut 2,200 jobs by the end of 2024 [3] - The company reported a 6% year-over-year decline in Q1 2025 revenue, totaling $11.2 billion, with U.S. market revenue down 7% to $7.9 billion, yet it remains optimistic about its annual revenue forecast, adjusting it to a range of $45.8 billion to $46.8 billion [3] Historical Layoff Trends - In 2024, BMS conducted three rounds of layoffs in Lawrenceville, totaling 349 employees, while 2025 has seen an accelerated pace with significant layoffs in February and May [4] - The ongoing layoffs reflect a broader trend in the pharmaceutical industry, where companies are restructuring to focus on core therapeutic areas and innovation pipelines [4]

群友1： 如果理想目前签订的2800座场地价格是ok的，签约周期也是锁定相对较长时间的，租金不会 出现暴涨，并且保证充电站质量维持在全市场前20%，那理想未来这3000根桩，是可以提供一个非常 好的现金流的。 数据很好算，就是电价差（服务费）和翻台率和总投资成本。 公式简单，数据好统 计，唯一就是场地，还有能不能做到过剩时候依然保证处于领先（翻台率ok）。 本身充电桩是很挣钱的，好的场地的，运行量足够，真的可能3年回本, 后续全是利润，很恐怖，当然 运行量不够，那就是摆设。 充电桩的成本，拆解拆解，能有啥？芯片都能干到几块钱，那很棍子和枪和两米长的电缆，能值啥 钱。 要相信在中国的工业体系下，充电站这种东西（我都不好意提XX，亏损XX和XX有啥关系，在中国 的工业体系下，成本能吓死人？）bom成本极低 群友1认为是一个非常好的生意，和理想团队沟通过，但没有好的场地资源，最终未能合作。 群友2是银行从业人员，审批过很多新能源贷款。 群友2： 重点在于场地和单独前线变电站的成本， 这两年投资这个要差点了，好的地方被占了。 如 果是5年前第一批，现在基本上都赚，要知道当时充电桩还有国补。 地方有任务，可以去谈一个很 ...

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高回落。螺纹表需短期趋稳，产量继续回升，库存去化放缓。热卷需求回落，产量维持高位，库存稍有累积。目前 高炉仍有利润，铁水产量维持相对高位，负反馈预期有所缓解，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回暖缺乏持续 性, 地产销售低位徘徊, 投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑, ...

据公开资料显示，Universal Dairy Limited的实际控制人为刘永好及其女儿刘畅。自上市以来，刘永好 一直未减持过新乳业的股份，此次是他首次对公司进行减持。 新乳业原为新希望集团下属的乳业板块，于2011年独立。经过六年多的发展后，新乳业2016年冲刺深交 所。当时，新希望乳业的营收规模已超过40亿元，净利润也达到约1.5亿元。2019年1月，新乳业正式登 陆资本市场，成为刘永好旗下的第三家上市公司。 从业绩表现来看，2024年新乳业实现营业收入106.65亿元，同比下降2.93%；但归母净利润达到5.38亿 元，同比增长24.80%。2025年一季度，公司净利润继续同比增长48.46%。 6月29日晚间，新乳业发布公告称，公司近日收到控股股东Universal Dairy Limited（持股比例达 65.07%）的通知，该股东计划自本公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，通过集中竞价或大宗交易 的方式，减持公司股份合计不超过2582.03万股，这一数量占公司总股本的比例不超过3%。 从市场反应来看，这一减持计划给新乳业带来了显著冲击。6月30日，新乳业股价以5.03%的跌幅低 开，盘中跌幅 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7287 | -11 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 313629 | -10678 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 357712 | 手) 6971 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7408 | -23 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 280966 | 3464 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -20537 | -3373 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 378249 | 10344 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 0 | -7245 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 8084 921 | -80 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of rice in Japan has been declining for four consecutive weeks, but it remains high overall, leading to increased public concern regarding rice production and distribution issues [1]. Group 1: Rice Production and Costs - In Chiba Prefecture, a major rice-producing area, a rice farmer, Ito Hideo, manages about 100 hectares of rice fields, producing approximately 600,000 kilograms of rice annually [3]. - The cooperative that Ito is part of has faced significant financial challenges, reporting deficits for three consecutive years due to soaring production costs driven by rising prices of raw materials [3]. - The cost of agricultural machinery has increased dramatically, with a combine harvester rising from 16 million yen (approximately 800,000 RMB) to over 20 million yen (approximately 990,000 RMB), and a tractor from 6 million yen (approximately 300,000 RMB) to 8 million yen (approximately 400,000 RMB) [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Government Policies - Retail prices for locally produced rice have increased by nearly 30% compared to last year, despite government efforts to lower supermarket rice prices through the release of reserve rice [7]. - Rice procurement prices have been raised by buyers, including agricultural cooperatives, to ensure sufficient purchasing volumes, indicating a need for higher rice prices to address the operational difficulties faced by the rice industry [7]. - The Japanese government has shifted its rice production policy from reduction to increase this year, but the success of this initiative remains uncertain due to various influencing factors [7].

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 2025-01 生猪均价（元/公斤） 图：生猪均价 资料来源：钢联数据，东海证券研究所 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 7KG仔猪价格（元/公斤） 资料来源：钢联数据，东海证券研究所 图：仔猪均价 ● 今年以来生猪价格平稳震荡，仔猪价格先涨后跌。根据钢联数据，6月27日生猪均价14.56元/公斤，年初以来下降7.6%，同比 上升0.9%。春节后至端午节前，生猪价格维持在14-15元/公斤左右震荡，淡季不淡，强于市场预期。主要由于冻品库存下降、 二次育肥增加以及消费需求恢复，支撑猪价。6月以后受集中出栏以及需求季节性偏弱影响，猪价跌破14元/ ...