证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Core Insights - Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 38 cents for Q3 fiscal 2025, a decline of 39.7% year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.76% [1] - Total sales for Q3 reached $38.99 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.2% and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.5% [2][9] - The company has withdrawn its fiscal 2025 guidance due to a pending acquisition deal with Sycamore Partners, expected to close in late 2025 [12][13] Financial Performance - The gross profit for Q3 was $6.51 billion, up 0.75% year-over-year, despite an 8.7% increase in the cost of sales, leading to a gross margin contraction of 108 basis points to 16.7% [8][9] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose 1.6% year-over-year to $6.49 billion, with an adjusted operating profit of $13 million compared to $66 million in the previous year [10] Segment Performance - U.S. Retail Pharmacy segment sales increased by 7.8% year-over-year to $30.7 billion, with comparable sales up 10.3% [4] - International revenues grew by 7.8% year-over-year to $6.2 billion, with notable increases in Germany and Boots UK [6] - U.S. Healthcare reported revenues of $2.1 billion, with mixed performance across its sub-segments [7] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Walgreens shares rose by 0.9% in pre-market trading [2]

Economic Indicators - The actual GDP decreased by 0.30%, while the current dollar GDP grew by 3.50% [3] - Private domestic purchasers' actual final sales increased by 3.00%, but the import volume surged by 37.9%, significantly lowering GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - Government spending saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, marking the largest drop since 1986 [3] Industry Performance - The actual value added in the private goods-producing sector fell by 2.8%, and the private services sector decreased by 0.3%, although government sector growth of 2.0% somewhat mitigated the overall decline [4] - The measure of current production profits decreased by $906 million, with a further decline of $275 million compared to previous estimates, indicating severe pressure on corporate earnings [4] Inflation Pressure - Inflation remains a significant concern, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.5%, above the expected 3.4% [5] - The domestic total purchase price index increased by 3.4%, and the PCE price index rose by 3.7%, suggesting a persistent upward trend in prices [5] Corporate Investment - May durable goods orders showed a strong increase of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, exceeding expectations [6] - Core capital goods orders, a key indicator of business equipment investment, rose by 1.7%, indicating some positive signals in corporate investment despite declining profits [6] Employment Market - Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, better than economists' expectations, but layoffs increased, leading to a rise in the number of individuals seeking continued assistance [8] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June, reflecting instability in the job market [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark overnight rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since December 2024, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [8]

Company Performance - Lindsay (LNN) reported quarterly earnings of $1.78 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 per share, and up from $1.41 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +30.88% [1] - The company posted revenues of $169.46 million for the quarter ended May 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.60%, and an increase from year-ago revenues of $139.2 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Lindsay has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates and revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance - Lindsay shares have increased approximately 16% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.6% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.20 on revenues of $161.38 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.57 on revenues of $676.71 million [7] Industry Outlook - The Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry, to which Lindsay belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Lindsay's stock performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts conducted an on-site survey of Lao Pu Gold's Singapore Marina Bay Sands store, revealing that its performance exceeded expectations, with high foot traffic and a conversion rate above 95% [1][3]. Group 1: Store Performance - The Singapore store opened on June 21, with weekend wait times reaching 2-3 hours and weekday wait times of 1-1.5 hours [3]. - The store's sales conversion rate is over 95%, with 4-10 transactions per hour, and customers spend an average of 1 hour engaging with the brand and products [3]. - Approximately 95% of customers are local, with 50% being Chinese residents and 40% local Singaporeans, while 90% are first-time customers of the Lao Pu Gold brand [4]. Group 2: Pricing and Service Standards - Product pricing in the Singapore store is consistent with domestic prices, with differences of only 0.1%-0.9% for most items, and a 10% opening discount is offered [5]. - The store replicates the service standards of domestic flagship stores, including well-trained sales consultants and premium service offerings [8]. Group 3: Strategic Location and Expansion Plans - The store's location is strategically significant, situated opposite the MBS casino and near other luxury brands, with extended operating hours to accommodate high customer traffic [10]. - Lao Pu Gold plans to establish an independent membership system in Singapore and retain a 5% discount for mainland customers, with intentions to open more stores in Southeast Asia [10]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Morgan Stanley raised Lao Pu Gold's target price from HKD 1,149 to HKD 1,249, maintaining a buy rating, and expects a compound annual growth rate of 68% in sales and 76% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly increased, with expected sales growth of 155% and net profit growth of 181% in 2025 [13]. - The company is projected to achieve a same-store sales growth of 115% and a store expansion growth of 22% [13]. Group 5: Stock Performance - As of June 26, Lao Pu Gold's stock price was HKD 868.5, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 259% [15].

Group 1 - The IPO market is gradually recovering, with the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) being the main platform for new applications [1][3][4] - As of June 25, 2023, a total of 95 IPO applications have been accepted this year, surpassing the total of 77 from the previous year [1][4] - In June alone, 68 IPO applications were accepted, accounting for 88% of last year's total [3][4] Group 2 - The increase in IPO applications in June is attributed to multiple factors, including updated financial data and the completion of IPO processes [3][4] - The Beijing Stock Exchange has accepted 62 of the 95 total applications this year, representing 65% of the total [1][4] - The surge in applications is also linked to government policies encouraging the development of specialized and innovative enterprises [4][6] Group 3 - Future trends indicate that the number of IPO applications is expected to continue increasing, with the Beijing Stock Exchange likely remaining the primary platform [6][8] - Recent policy changes, including the reintroduction of the fifth set of standards for unprofitable companies, may provide more opportunities for these firms to go public [6][8] - However, it is anticipated that unprofitable companies will not dominate the IPO market, as regulatory measures will ensure quality and control the pace of listings [6][7]

美股芯片股盘前上涨，因美光第四季度盈利预测优于预期，美光科技(MU.O)上涨2%，英伟达 (NVDA.O)上涨1.1%。 ...

很多企业主在想要扩大企业规模时，对于努力的方向十分模糊，不懂得该如何提升企业的发展质量。如果我们想要实现企业的规模化发展，需要思考清楚哪 些问题呢？下面就让我们从三个方面来一同了解下： 一、产品怎么做 规模化商业发展的前提，是需要我们有一个能被市场认可的产品。产品不仅是企业价值的载体，更是用户在市场上感知到品牌的重要触发点。 想要知道流量在哪里，首先就需要企业明确目标用户在哪里。通过选择合适的渠道进行精准投放，快速在不同平台上建立起影响力与用户生态，以此来帮助 品牌持续获得流量。 三、如何变现 流量和产品都只是手段，想要实现企业的规模化，最终的商业价值还是体现在变现能力上。从产品设计阶段开始，我们就要思考清楚到底选择何种销售模 式。 想要稳定获客，关键在于找到与用户价值相匹配的盈利方式，既不能让用户感到被剥削，也不能忽视商业回报。再结合高效的转化流程，保证用户能够在短 时间内被顺利转化。随着业务规模的扩大，我们可能还需要从用户分层的角度来考虑不同的定价策略，实现更加精细化的管理。 在设计产品时，最好要考虑产品具备一定的可复制性和标准化能力，以便在规模化过程中兼顾质量与效率，让用户获得更加稳定的体验，以实现品牌 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of in-car advertising has led to a significant increase in consumer complaints, with a 210% year-on-year rise in complaints in 2024, making it the second-largest consumer rights concern after battery safety [1] - Consumers are primarily concerned about driving safety and the perceived infringement of personal ownership and privacy rights due to in-car advertisements [1] - Car manufacturers are motivated to push in-car ads to reach potential buyers and explore new revenue streams through software services amid intense market competition [1] Group 2 - In-car systems have unique advantages over mobile ads, as they can gather rich contextual data, which allows for targeted advertising based on vehicle status, such as maintenance needs or low battery levels [2] - The market penetration rate of smart connected vehicles in China is expected to exceed 80% by 2026, yet the software revenue for most domestic car manufacturers remains low, at only 1% to 3% [2] - Companies like Tesla and Li Auto have made progress in monetizing in-car systems, with Li Auto's "Task Master" feature allowing users to earn points by watching ads, achieving a participation rate of 34% [2] Group 3 - The optimal model for in-car commercialization should be seamless, where users do not perceive the commercialization, indicating a need for innovation in service and revenue generation [3] - Car manufacturers face new challenges in balancing service convenience for users with their own revenue generation, exploring alternatives to advertising for income [3] - As the penetration of smart vehicles increases, the establishment of regulations and standards for in-car advertising is urgent, with the EU already working on regulations that require user consent for ads [3]

以科创板适用于第五套标准上市的20家公司为例，9家公司近三年营业收入复合增长率超过40%，反映 出这些公司抢占市场的能力突出，产品认可度高，商业化潜力巨大。 市场资金对于优质未盈利企业也给予了越来越大的包容度。今年以来，上述20家公司中，19家公司跑赢 科创50指数，14家公司年内股价涨幅超过20%，6家公司超过了50%。2025年一季报前十大股东中，20 家公司里17家出现了基金的身影，4家公司获社保基金持仓，机构投资者对这些企业的成长性和投资价 值的认可度不断提高。 随着政策导向再次走向多元包容，优质高技术含量未盈利企业的投资逻辑愈发清晰。除了医药生物外， 人工智能、商业航空、低空经济等政策提及的领域也将迎来资本市场资金支持，助力龙头企业抓住发展 的黄金机遇，加速走向成熟。 科创板创立之初就设立了多元包容的上市标准，截至目前，科创板共有54家IPO时未盈利的企业上市， 其中20家采用了第五套上市标准，这些公司的上市时间集中在2020年至2022年之间，2023年下半年开始 第五套上市标准进入实质性暂停，折射出市场对于未盈利企业的价值判断一度存在较大分歧。 长期以来，盈利能力、市盈率是A股投资者评判上市公司 ...