金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月13日） 1. 欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔表示，随着通胀在欧洲央行目标附近企稳，（宽松）货币政策周期"即将结 束"。 2. 秘鲁央行将基准利率维持在4.50%。 3. 日本央行预计通胀将高于预期，但下周将维持利率不变。日本央行在贸易局势明朗后，有望考虑加 息。 4. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行的关注重点已从通胀转向经济增长放缓。 5. 欧洲央行管委穆勒：通胀率近期可能维持在2%左右。 美元： 非美主要货币： 其他： 1. 秘鲁央行将基准利率维持在4.50%。 2. 乌兹别克斯坦央行宣布维持政策利率不变，仍为14.0%。 3. 中欧央行行长首次年度会晤，双方签署合作谅解备忘录。 1. 高盛：将美国12个月经济衰退的概率从35%下调至30%。 2. 美国国会预算办公室：税收法案使富人更富 穷人更穷。 3. 特朗普：不会解雇鲍威尔，鲍威尔只需将利率降低即可，建议美联储降息200个基点。 4. 安联：将美联储降息预期从10月推迟到12月。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月13日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，早盘金价迅速走高； 美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.79%报97.87， 离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报7.1731；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 6.11个基点报4.359%；COMEX黄金期货涨1.88%报3406.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.16，现货781.7，基差-3.46，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加30千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注欧洲CPI终值、美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、周日第 六轮美伊核谈判举行。美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，金价早间 大幅拉升。沪金溢价维持至2.68元/克左右。地缘局势紧张，美伊谈判继续，金价震 荡偏多 白银 1、基本 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices rose on June 12, closing at $3,385.37 per ounce, an increase of $30.35 or 0.90% [1] - The daily high reached $3,398.86 per ounce, while the low was $3,338.29 per ounce [1] ETF Holdings - As of June 12, gold ETF holdings amounted to 937.91 tons, a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The total value of gold ETF holdings was approximately $102.25 billion [2] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.38% to close at 6,045.26 points, with eight out of eleven sectors increasing [2][3] - The utilities sector led the gains with an increase of 1.26%, followed by the information technology sector, which rose by 1.01% [3] Mining Companies Performance - Gold mining companies listed in the U.S. saw stock price increases, with Newmont Mining up 4.9%, Harmony Gold up 4.1%, and AngloGold Ashanti up 6.4% [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Traders anticipate a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September [4] - Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of a U.S. recession from 35% to 30%, citing reduced uncertainty regarding Trump's tariff policies [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a rebound after finding support at the midline and the 30-day moving average, with a bullish outlook for further increases towards targets of $3,435 and $3,500 [6]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a slight recovery, closing at 98.05 with a 0.20% increase after a decline of 0.78% the previous day, marking a three-year low [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 7 recorded 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000, indicating potential slowing in the labor market [1][2] - The May PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 2.6%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month rate was 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [1][2] Group 2 - The US core PPI data for May fell short of expectations, with economists warning of potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to trade policies and profit margin concerns [2] - The average number of initial jobless claims over four weeks has increased, reinforcing the view that the US job market may be slowing down [2] - Goldman Sachs revised the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months down from 35% to 30%, citing easing financial conditions and trade policy uncertainties [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 30%, indicating a potential reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook [1][5]. Economic Indicators - The adjustment in recession probability suggests that Goldman Sachs has identified some positive economic signals, including a stable job market, sustained consumer spending, and recovery in certain sectors [3]. - Despite the lowered recession probability, the U.S. economy still faces significant uncertainties, including global economic complexities, geopolitical tensions, and potential financial market volatility [3][5]. Market Reaction - The revised forecast may positively influence investor sentiment, potentially boosting confidence in risk assets and leading to short-term increases in stock and bond markets [4]. - There exists a divergence in market perspectives, with some economists believing the U.S. economy has passed its most challenging phase, while others caution that the recovery foundation remains fragile [4]. Policy Implications - The effectiveness of U.S. government fiscal policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies will be crucial in supporting economic recovery while avoiding excessive inflation or other risks [4][5]. - A misstep in policy coordination could elevate the risk of economic recession, despite the current positive signals from Goldman Sachs [5].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 30% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - The adjustment in recession probability indicates a more optimistic view on the U.S. economy's near-term performance [1]

高盛将美国12个月内经济衰退的概率预期从35%下调至30%。 ...

高盛：将美国12个月经济衰退的概率从35%下调至30%。 ...

以下文章来源于那个NG ，作者黄瓜汽水 那个NG . 用关注决定视界｜复杂世界的策展人 出品 | 虎嗅青年文化组 作者 | 黄瓜汽水 编辑、题图 | 渣渣郡 本文首发于虎嗅年轻内容公众号"那個NG"（ID：huxiu4youth）。在这里，我们呈现当下年轻人的面 貌、故事和态度。 "你醒啦，现在是2008年的午后。你刚刚好像做噩梦了，一直在说着什么房贷加班这些乱七八糟的东 西。" 那个无数人想回去的2008年午后，有蓝色玻璃的单元楼，有刚刚打开包装的绿舌头，电视机里还在 播放北京奥运会。 那一年，你躲在教室后排，和同桌分享有线耳机。 你拿着那支用压岁钱买的MP5，看到了大洋彼岸有一个银发烟熏妆的女人又唱又跳，后来你知道她 有个奇怪的名字叫Lady Gaga。高中毕业那年的暑假，同学们一起在KTV合唱Poker Face，喝着嘉士 伯啤酒。 当时的你并不知道，你正处在这个世界的黄金年代。 这些年，对于不熟悉欧美音乐的朋友们来说，那个怪诞浮夸的Lady Gaga像是消失了。 在抖音，你甚至能看到年轻人开始翻拍Lady Gaga的演唱会片段。如此古早的欧美diva也是好起来 了。 上个月，Lady Gaga在新加坡 ...

6月11日晚间，美国劳工部公布5月CPI数据，总CPI同比2.4%（预期2.5%），核心CPI同比2.8%（预期2.9%），环比仅涨0.1%（预期0.2%），双双低于市场 预期。数据公布后，现货黄金短线飙升12美元至3376.3美元/盎司（6月12日亚盘最高），创本周新高；10年期美债收益率暴跌5个基点至4.38%，市场对美联 储年内降息两次的预期升至72%。 二、黄金、美债齐涨：避险与政策预期共振 | ● 日期: 20250611 | | 美国CPI月率报告 1 | | CD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品 | 日期 | 今值(%) | 预测值(%) | 前值(% | | 美国CPI月率 | 2025年06月11日 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 一、CPI"降温"超预期，降息博弈白热化 此次CPI数据的核心亮点在于通胀黏性松动： 商品价格全线回落：新车（-0.3%）、二手车（-0.5%）、家具（-0.8%）价格环比下跌，显示特朗普政府25%汽车关税尚未传导至零售端，供应链压力缓 解。 服务通胀增速放缓：住房租金环比0.4%（前值0.5%），医疗服务价格 ...