中金研究 2025以来全球风险事件频发，美元作为传统避险资产不但没有升值，反而已经累计回落近10%，引发市场广泛关注。短期汇率预测存在高度不确定 性，其准确度甚至不超过随机游走模型（The Meese-Rogoff Puzzle）[1]。但拉长时间维度看，美元总是在强弱之间循环往复，表现出明显的周期性律 动，而且往往是长周期和大周期。当前美元究竟只是短暂回调，还是处于新一轮大周期的拐点上？本轮周期又有什么不同之处？我们从美元周期的历 史比较入手，识别本轮周期的异常特征，从基本面、政策面和情绪面的三重框架分析美元周期运行规律，并预测美元未来中长期走势。 点击小程序查看报告原文 美元周期的历史回顾与当前特征 自1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来，美元经历了三轮主要升值周期。第一轮出现在1980至1985年， 彼时为遏制通胀，时任美联储主席沃尔克大幅加息， 联邦基金利率一度超过20%，推动美元指数（DXY指数）飙升至164，累计升幅达95%。 第二轮发生在1990年代中后期， 得益于信息技术产业的崛起和全 球化的深入发展，美国经济强劲复苏。1995至2001年间，美元指数累计上涨51%。 图表：2008年至今，本轮美 ...

白银的故事同样充满戏剧性。这种兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，在 2025 年被预测价格将突破 43.50 美元，其导电性和导热性使其在 5G 电子元件和新能 源电池中不可或缺。然而白银市场的分歧也显而易见：乐观者认为工业需求将支撑其价格持续走高，悲观者则担忧投机资金撤离引发的波动风险。这种争议 在铂族金属中更为突出 —— 铂金曾是汽车催化转化器的 "标配"，但新能源汽车的崛起使其在传统燃油车领域的需求锐减，所幸氢燃料电池车的发展带来新 希望，尽管当前单车铂金用量已从 2000 年的 1.1g/kw 降至 0.17g/kw，但行业对低铂催化剂的研发仍在加速，这种 "危中有机" 的局面让铂金市场前景扑朔迷 离。 当我们梳理金、银、铂、钯、铑、铱、锇、钌这八大贵金属的现状，会发现每个品种都面临着独特的挑战与机遇：黄金在货币属性与医疗应用中寻找新平 衡，铂金在能源转型中经历 "阵痛"，钯金和铑在传统需求与新兴领域间博弈，而铱、锇、钌等小众贵金属则在电子和航空航天领域默默发挥着不可替代的 作用。2025 年的贵金属市场，早已超越了简单的 "避险投资" 范畴，而是成为观察全球产业变革和地缘政治的绝佳窗口。 你认为在新能源 ...

两位 AI 创业者，独响创始人王登科、Fellou 创始人谢扬，和罗永浩同台。 「还记得 TNT 吗？」老罗问他们。 当时王登科带着团队在鸟巢现场，谢扬在线上看了直播。 「TNT 虽然是一个臭名昭著的失败例子，」罗永浩说，「但是锤子最后卖掉的时候，四个潜在的买家里三家都是因为 TNT 才来谈的。如果没有 TNT 的话，那公司就只能原地解散了。」 可惜 TNT 不合时宜，来得早了点。「最终所有的产品经理都会消失的，」老罗说，「但那之前还有一段时间，产品经理反而很重要。」 久未在科技行业露面的罗永浩，今天以科技创业者的身份，在 AGI Playground 2025 上，和独响创始人王登科、Fellou 创始人谢扬以及极客公园 创始人张鹏，进行了一场 AI 创业者之间的对话。 他们聊到「AI 陪伴」、「AI 效率工具」，新时代的 AI 产品该怎么做，人与 AI 的关系会变得怎样，以及，老罗接下来想做些什么。 「梁文锋问我，你为什么非要做科技呢？」梁文锋认为老罗「靠嘴吃饭」的天赋是全国顶尖的，不做些什么会有些浪费。「我回来后认真想了想， 我也不排除会去做靠嘴吃饭这件事。」 以后会有老罗聊创业者的播客，会有新的「科技 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 能源品处于周期什么位置？ 原油——大周期仍在页岩油时代，小周期还需等一个破位 原油历史经历了三轮大周期——1970s 的产油国崛起大滞胀、1980-90s 的 石油私有化和大缓和；2000s 的中国需求叠加"阿拉伯之春"。到 2010s 之 后进入页岩油革命时代。虽然 2020s 经历了疫情、俄乌等大事件，但总体来 讲，到 2025 年石油市场仍然笼罩在页岩油大时代的余威中。 小周期来讲，自从美国恢复石油出口之后的 10 年里，看起来似乎五年为一 轮小周期，是页岩油的扩张——收缩周期。目前已经走到 2020-2025 年本 轮小周期的尾声阶段，只差一个破位和出清的过程。 煤炭——走完一个库存周期，底部或已现，但边际供给限制反弹空间 煤炭的产能周期具有政策属性，而库存周期具有市场属性。目前库存周期接 近走完一个轮回。从 2021 年的被动去库，到 2022 年的主动加库，到 2023/24 年的被动加库，到 2025 年进入主动去库。 动力煤 2025 年的供需压力是不言而喻的。供给端的负反馈已经出现，价格 或基本筑底。高成本的供应者（主要是距离消费地远的）包 ...

Group 1 - The Yulin Economic Development Zone is experiencing rapid project construction, with various projects underway, including the National Energy Yulin Circular Economy Coal Comprehensive Utilization Project, which focuses on coal liquefaction and the development of a complete industrial chain from coal to methanol and various chemical products [1] - The Shanxi Coal 15 million tons/year clean and efficient coal conversion demonstration project utilizes coal pyrolysis and gasification technology to produce methanol and olefins, enhancing the overall value of coal resources through the integration of coal chemical and petroleum chemical industries [1] - The Yulin Hengshen New Materials Co., Ltd. is the first 10,000-ton-level carbon fiber production enterprise in Shaanxi Province, with plans to complete a 20,000 tons/year high-performance carbon fiber production line by the end of 2028 [2] Group 2 - The Yulin Economic Development Zone has established a "2+4+N" industrial structure, with significant projects emerging, including billion-level and hundred-million-level projects, contributing to high-quality development [2] - During the 9th Silk Road International Expo, the Yulin Economic Development Zone successfully attracted investments totaling 114.95 billion yuan, accounting for 58.42% of the total investment in Yulin City [2] - The Yulin Economic Development Zone emphasizes a "project-oriented" approach, focusing on the entire project lifecycle to ensure timely commencement, construction, and production of major projects, thereby driving economic growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the complex relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and human creativity, emphasizing the anxiety creators face as machines increasingly mimic or potentially surpass human imagination [1][3]. Group 1: AI's Evolution and Impact - AI is described as having "surging and overwhelming vitality," likened to a monster that is rapidly approaching, making its future unpredictable [3]. - The essence of AI is framed as part of an ongoing "digital revolution," tracing its roots back to the invention of writing approximately 5,000 years ago, where numbers were initially part of written language [3][4]. - The invention of Morse code in 1837 is identified as a significant milestone in the digital revolution, enabling long-distance communication but also creating barriers in language understanding [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges Posed by AI - The emergence of computers in the 20th century represents a second leap in the digital revolution, compressing text into binary code, which, while convenient, has led to issues such as distraction and a decline in attention [4]. - AI is characterized as the "third wave" of the digital revolution, posing challenges not only to reading habits but also to the act of writing itself [4]. - Despite the potential for AI to outperform human writing, the importance of writing as a means of self-existence is emphasized, suggesting that the act of writing transcends competition with AI [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the life and legacy of Zhao Yiman, a revolutionary martyr, emphasizing her contributions to the anti-Japanese struggle and her enduring spirit of sacrifice for the nation [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Life and Contributions - Zhao Yiman, born Li Kuntai in 1905, became a member of the Communist Party in 1926 and was involved in underground work across various regions in China [1][2]. - She played a significant role in labor movements, notably leading a successful strike in Harbin in 1933, which pressured the authorities to meet workers' demands [2]. - Zhao was known for her bravery and leadership, earning the nickname "Double-Gun White Horse" and becoming a prominent figure in the anti-Japanese resistance [2][3]. Group 2: Capture and Martyrdom - In 1935, Zhao was captured by Japanese forces after being severely wounded during a battle, where she endured brutal torture but remained steadfast in her beliefs [3]. - She wrote a poignant farewell letter to her son before her execution in 1936, expressing her regrets and hopes for his future [3]. - Zhao Yiman's legacy is preserved through various memorials and educational initiatives, ensuring her spirit and contributions are remembered [4].

Industry Overview - The mica industry is transitioning from traditional mineral processing to high-end new material manufacturing, highlighting the deep restructuring of upstream materials due to the energy revolution [2] - In 2024, the market size of China's mica industry is projected to reach 8.37 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.73% [2] - The breakthrough in synthetic mica technology is reshaping the industry landscape, with Zhejiang Rongtai developing nano-level mica composite materials that enhance breakdown strength to 25KV/mm, successfully entering the aerospace insulation sector [2] - In the electronic packaging field, low dielectric constant mica sheets are achieving import substitution, with mica substrates for 5G base station filters capturing over 25% market share [2] - The "Strategic Planning Outline for Expanding Domestic Demand" includes mica in the forefront of new material research and development, while upgrades in safety standards for power batteries are directly driving demand for high-end mica [2] Industry Development History - The development of China's mica industry has gone through four stages: the initial stage (1950-1960s), rapid development (1970-1980s), industrial upgrading (1990-2000s), and innovative development (2010s to present) [5][6] - The initial stage saw the establishment of the first mica processing plants and the mechanization of mining, laying the foundation for domestic mica supply [5] - The rapid development phase included the successful development of powdered mica paper and the establishment of numerous mica flake factories, transitioning from primary raw materials to comprehensive processing [5] - The industrial upgrading phase featured the development of synthetic mica with superior properties, leading to increased international market presence [6] - The innovative development phase has seen mica products applied in new energy vehicle battery thermal runaway protection, with significant growth in demand following the implementation of safety standards [6][11] Industry Supply Chain - The upstream of the mica industry supply chain includes raw materials and production equipment, with raw materials primarily being mica ore resources [8] - The midstream involves the processing and manufacturing of mica products [8] - The downstream applications span across automotive, industrial, electric power, construction, electrical appliances, and energy storage sectors [9]

Group 1: Digital Transformation and Cultural Heritage - The digital wave is reshaping global civilization, emphasizing the need to anchor the value of life in a digital age [1][2] - Institutions like Dunhuang and the Palace Museum are utilizing blockchain technology for digital rights management of cultural relics, enhancing the narrative of cultural heritage through AI algorithms [2] - The concept of "digital immortality" is emerging, where life can be represented in code, potentially redefining human existence [2] Group 2: Cognitive Strategies in the Digital Age - The phenomenon of information overload in the digital era necessitates strategies for cognitive detoxification to enhance the value of life [3] - Three key practices for managing information include building a firewall against "information garbage," focusing on high-value knowledge, and adopting a minimalist digital lifestyle [3] - The approach of "sacrificing nine for one" aligns with the logic of digital immortality, emphasizing the importance of extracting valuable moments from life [3] Group 3: Trust and Ethics in the Digital Economy - The rapid development of digital technology brings ethical risks, such as data breaches and algorithmic discrimination, threatening individual privacy and financial market trust [4][5] - Trust is foundational in social cooperation, evolving in the digital age to encompass digital identity and transparency in organizational practices [4] - Building a digital trust system requires both technological solutions and institutional innovations, with blockchain and privacy-preserving technologies playing crucial roles [5]

投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ➢ 全固态电池装车预期收敛至2027年，共识逐渐凝聚。2025年2月25日的电动汽车百人会上，欧阳明高院士表示全 固态电池预计在2027年实现批量装车，2030年实现大规模量产装车，包括比亚迪在内的多家车企密集公布全固态 电池装车时间表，主流车企的固态电池装车时间集中在 2026-2030 年，多家车企计划于 2027 年左右开始上市搭 载全固态电池车。固态电池由于其高能量密度、高安全性、高续航、长寿命等特点，是下一次能源革命的关键节点， 规模化量产后有望带动机器人、低空经济、新能源汽车等场景走向成熟。我们预计到2028年固态电池出货量有望 突破百GW级别，2030年达到771GW。 ➢ 固态电池电解质是降本主要路径，硫化物是技术最理想路线。固态电解质是全固态电池核心部件，目前主要技术路 线包括聚合物体系、氧化物体系、硫化物体系、卤化物体系。其中硫化物体系是技术最理想路线，由于在性能上突 出的表现，硫化物技术路线成为目前各家电池以及材料厂的研究重点，目前包括宁德时代在内的多家电池厂以及一 汽等车企都锚定硫化物的技术路线，推动实现固态电池的终极性能。 ➢ 固态电池对锂、镍、钴、 ...