智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度财务业绩。摩根大通发布研报表示， 巨大的订单数量预期使得走势难以确定;根据目前的股价情况，业绩符合预期将被视为积极因素。小摩 重申对阿斯麦"增持"评级，目标价970欧元(约合1137.71美元)。 小摩指出，市场对该公司股票的走势持看跌态度。鉴于订单存在不确定性，短期内可能需要保持谨慎态 度，但鉴于"26 年的共识预期营收较25 年的指引中值增长 7.7%"，小摩认为中期风险较低。投资者仍关 注"26 年的销售额"。投资者对阿斯麦在26 年的前景愈发看淡，原因有多个。 小摩预计该公司将报告营收 74.33 亿欧元(环比下降 4.0%，同比增长 19.1%)，这比市场预期低 1.0%，与 指引区间中间值 74.5 亿欧元相符。小摩预计该公司第二季度订单额为 41.9 亿欧元，这比市场预期低 12.6%，反映了鉴于季度订单的可预测性较低、对订单量的保守看法。然而，这比我们收集到的买方市 场预期的 45 亿欧元低 6.9%(见此处)。在盈利能力方面，小摩对 51.5%的毛利率(公司指引范围为 50- 53%)的估计与市场预期一致。小摩预计阿斯麦第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses two prominent investment philosophies: Warren Buffett's focus on understanding one's own capability circle and Ray Dalio's all-weather diversified allocation strategy, questioning which approach is more beneficial for investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Buffett's principle of "do not invest in what you do not understand" is widely recognized, yet many investors confuse familiarity with true understanding [3][5]. - Dalio's strategy emphasizes diversification, but investors often fall into the trap of diversifying without understanding the underlying correlations, leading to ineffective risk management [5][11]. Group 2: Understanding Risk - True understanding in investing does not equate to predicting price movements; it involves comprehending potential losses and their probabilities [6][9]. - The article highlights that overconfidence stemming from cognitive biases can be more detrimental than a lack of knowledge [8][17]. Group 3: Data Insights - Historical data from 2005 to 2025 indicates that a stock-bond allocation reduces maximum drawdown by 15% compared to a pure A-share investment [16]. - Further diversification into global assets, including U.S. stocks and gold, minimizes drawdown while maintaining returns, validating both Buffett's and Dalio's investment principles [16][17]. Group 4: Bridging Understanding and Diversification - The article suggests that a balanced approach can be achieved by integrating Buffett's focus on understanding with Dalio's diversification, allowing for a more robust risk-return profile [17].

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, with central banks increasing gold purchases and international gold prices experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating interest rate expectations [1][3]. Industry Pain Points: Dual Challenges of Volatility and Compliance Risks - The gold investment sector faces two main risks: uncontrolled short-term volatility and compliance issues with trading platforms. For instance, during the May 2025 Federal Reserve meeting, gold prices dropped by 3% in a single day, leading to account liquidations for some investors [3]. - The number of non-compliant platforms in Hong Kong surged by 45% in 2024, with issues such as false credentials and fund misappropriation becoming prevalent. Additionally, the average spread in the industry reached $0.5 per ounce, while 35% of platforms still used mixed account models, compromising fund safety [3]. Jinsheng Precious Metals' Three-Dimensional Risk Control System - Jinsheng Precious Metals has established a comprehensive risk management system that includes compliance, dynamic risk control models, and scenario-based solutions [4]. - The compliance framework features bank-level fund segregation and transaction transparency, with client funds stored in dedicated accounts at HSBC and subjected to third-party audits. This system has earned the "Most Trusted Platform in Asia-Pacific" certification for six consecutive years [4]. - The dynamic risk control model limits individual trade risks to 2% of total account funds, and during Q1 2025, the platform adjusted leverage from 1:200 to 1:100 in response to market volatility, reducing user risk exposure by 35% [5]. - Scenario-based solutions, such as the "key point warning radar," provide real-time risk alerts, helping users manage their positions effectively. In Q2 2025, the average drawdown for Jinsheng users was only 7.2%, significantly better than the market average of 15.6% [6]. Cost Optimization and Service Innovation - Jinsheng has introduced a "zero commission + instant rebate" policy, reducing the London gold spread to $0.3 per ounce, which is over 30% lower than the industry average. This can save high-frequency traders thousands in fees monthly [8]. - The platform offers a "21-day simulation training camp" and mini contracts starting from 0.01 lots, enabling new investors to quickly learn risk management strategies through AI-assisted trading [8]. Industry Benchmark Value: Compliance and Technology as Dual Drivers - Jinsheng has established a $1 billion risk reserve fund to act as a market maker during liquidity crises, ensuring priority execution of client liquidation orders [9]. - The research team publishes a daily "Precious Metals Morning Report," providing strategic insights based on Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events, helping users avoid potential losses exceeding 15% during critical periods [9]. - The combination of technology and service has led to a user recommendation rate of 98%, making Jinsheng a preferred choice for 30 million global investors. The company positions itself as a "wealth ark" for investors, emphasizing low costs, high transparency, and strong protection [9].

证券代码：000411 证券简称：英特集团 浙江英特集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 ■其他 | | 参与单位名称 招商基金、浙商证券 | | | 时间 | 2025年7月8日 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待 | 副总经理、党委委员、财务总监（财务负责人）曹德智，董事会秘书谭江，证券事务代表裘莉 | | 人员姓名 | | | | 一、公司基本情况介绍 | | | 二、投资者提问与回答 | | | （一）公司零售终端情况 | | | 回答：公司旗下拥有英特怡年、英特一洲、绍兴华虞、临安康锐、淳安健民、舟山卫盛、 | | | 浦江恒生、嵊州天华等多个医药零售子品牌，覆盖全省 11 个地市，门店超 200 家，包含普通 | | | 药店与 DTP 药店等，其中 DTP 业务拥有 500 余个品规合作资质。 | | | （二）公司今年回款情况如何？ | | 投资者关系活 | 回答：公司目前应收账款回款周期总体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the China Internet sector is mixed, with major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and Pinduoduo experiencing slight declines, while some smaller firms see gains. The market sentiment is influenced by global macro risks, but the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive due to relatively low valuations and strong policy support for the tech sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Overseas China Internet 50 Index (H30533) decreased by 0.39%, with Tencent down 0.4%, Alibaba-W down 0.2%, Meituan-W down 0.6%, Pinduoduo down 1.2%, and Xiaomi Group-W down 0.8% [1]. - Conversely, companies like Yaoshi Bang increased by 4.7%, Zhongxu Future by 3.3%, Dongfang Zhenxuan by 3.0%, Ctrip Group-S by 1.7%, and Zhong An Online by 1.3% [1]. - The China Concept Internet ETF (513050) saw a net inflow of over 610 million yuan in the past five days, with a total fund size exceeding 34 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - On July 9, the Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a total trading volume of 53.405 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 4.668 billion HKD [1]. - Alibaba-W had a trading volume of 7.421 billion HKD through the Stock Connect, with a net buy of 1.014 billion HKD, marking three consecutive days of net inflows totaling 2.709 billion HKD [1]. - Meituan-W had a trading volume of 2.566 billion HKD, with a net buy of 0.833 billion HKD, also achieving three days of net inflows totaling 2.682 billion HKD [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The CSI Overseas China Internet 50 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 50 Chinese internet companies listed overseas, focusing on sectors like e-commerce, AI, social networking, and cloud computing [2]. - The ETF captures the growth potential of leading Chinese internet firms, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for approximately 90% of the index [2].

宝城期货表示，从宏观经济指标与货币政策的角度来看，目前国内通胀表现较弱，内需内生性增长动能 有所不足，外需易受到关税因素的冲击，下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预期， 国债期货中长期向上趋势仍存。不过考虑到近期股市风险偏好上升导致的资金分流效应，以及短期内降 息预期不强，短期内国债期货上下空间均有所受限。总的来说，短期内国债期货延续震荡整理为主。 华泰期货表示，央行连续净投放下市场流动性维持宽松，期限利差进一步走阔，反映对短端流动性宽松 的确定性预期。海外局势复杂叠加国内股市波动，债市短期仍具修复动能，中长期在经济基本面偏弱与 宽松政策支撑下，债市牛市基础仍在。 30年国债ETF博时(511130)低开低走，盘中下跌24个bp，成交额近25亿元，换手率超30%，该ETF近五日 获资金净流入2.74亿元。 消息面上，统计局公布了6月通胀数据，CPI同比上涨0.1%，PPI同比下降3.6%，整体表现偏弱，不利于 内需的内生性增长。 30年国债ETF博时（511130）于2024年3月成立，是市场上仅有的两只场内超长久期债券ETF基金之一， 跟踪指数为"上证30年期国债指数"，指数代码为"95017 ...

周四亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，一度收复3320美元/盎司关口，目前交投于3317美元/盎司附近。周三金价在触及近两 周低点3282.61美元/盎司后强势反弹，最终收报3313.73美元/盎司，展现出强劲的回升动能。美国10年期国债收益率从逾 两周高位回落至4.34%，为金价反弹提供支撑；美元指数则徘徊在97.40附近，接近两周多来的高点。 | 昨收 | 3313.73 | 最高 | 3326.35 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3313.55 最低 | | 3313.38 | | 买入 | 3317.00 | 卖出 | 3317.20 | 一、基本面分析：多重因素驱动避险需求升温 贸易政策不确定性加剧 特朗普政府宣布自8月1日起对日本、韩国等14国输美产品加征25%-40%关税，并明确表示"日期不会再变"。此举直接冲击 全球供应链，尤其是电子、汽车等依赖铜的行业。日本、韩国已启动紧急预案，欧盟也在加速与美国的贸易谈判，试图避 免关税冲击。世界银行警告，若全面实施25%关税，2025年全球GDP增速将放缓0.8个百分点，贸易额下降3.2%。这种政 策不确定性显著推升市场 ...

大额存单：高收益的迷思与潜在风险 大额存单的高利率，往往是银行吸储压力较大的体现。2025年初的银行业分析报告指出，提供高利率大 额存单的银行通常面临着资金成本和信贷风险的双重压力。某城商行2024年报显示，其大额存单平均利 率高达4.2%，同期不良贷款率却上升至1.78%，较上年增长0.35个百分点。这意味着，当银行经营承压 时，高额利息的兑现能力将面临巨大不确定性。金融监管部门2025年3月发布的风险提示也强调了部分 中小银行以高息揽储，但实际风险承受能力有限的潜在风险。 三、通货膨胀风险：实际收益缩水 通货膨胀对大额存单收益的影响不容忽视。2024年全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.8%，2025年 第一季度已升至3.2%，并呈持续上升趋势。而当前市场上主流三年期大额存单利率在3.6%至4.0%之 间，扣除约3%的通货膨胀率后，实际收益仅为0.6%至1.0%。这意味着，你的资金虽然名义上有所增 长，但实际购买力却几乎原地踏步。金融分析师预测，2025年CPI可能进一步攀升至3.5%，届时部分大 额存单的实际收益将接近于零甚至为负。长期持有，你的资金实际购买力将被不断侵蚀。 四、资产配置风险：鸡蛋 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%；10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99，离岸人民币升值至7.1701；WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日，美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示，约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率，只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期，联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人，失业率回落至 4.1%，主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温，9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言，表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一） ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].