S/D model update on silicon wafer, SiC substrate, GaN. China capacity and implications to global players As a global team, we review and refresh our S/D model across (1) silicon wafers, (2) SiC substrate, (3) GaN devices, and (4) IGBT (Exhibits 8, 10, 12, 32). Key conclusions: (1) Chinese in China: Local coverage (local production/ local demand) of 12-inch silicon wafer/ 6-inch SiC substrate to grow from 41%/ 80% in 2024 to 54%/ 87% in 2027E. (2) Pricing: 8-inch silicon wafer ASP to decline 10% CAGR in 2024 ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index rose over 1% on June 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.71% [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF (588930) experienced a morning surge, increasing by 1.48%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Cambricon Technologies (up over 5%) and others [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of over 20 million yuan in the past two days, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - According to Dongfang Securities, ongoing policy uncertainty is expected to drive the localization of supply chains, benefiting companies in semiconductor equipment, materials, and EDA sectors [2] - Domestic wafer manufacturers and memory chip producers are likely to increase their procurement of localized products to ensure supply chain security and capacity construction [2] - Industrial growth in the AI sector is highlighted by the emergence of innovative applications such as HarmonyOS intelligent agents and Agentic AI, with significant advancements in chip production expected by 2025 [2]

Cybersecurity Threat Landscape - Iran's cyber capabilities are on par with other nation states and are leveraged as a direct extension of military force [2] - DHS and CISA have issued advisories for private sector corporations and government entities to be on high alert for cyber attacks [3] - Iran can inflict substantial damage in the US across manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and critical infrastructure without necessarily crossing the red line of loss of life [4] - Iran typically targets user accounts through phishing or social engineering, directly attacks external perimeters, and increasingly targets cloud infrastructure and SaaS providers [6] - Over 85% of critical infrastructure is privately owned, making it a vulnerable target [7] - Iran has been attempting to conduct operations for this type of event, potentially having undetected footholds in organizations and critical infrastructure [9] - Iran is specifically targeting industry verticals, which is not typical [10] Market Impact - Cybersecurity stocks such as Fortinet, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler are up by about 1.5% to 2.5% [5] - Palo Alto is up about 1.7% [6] Defensive Recommendations - Companies should be on high alert and diligent in putting up defenses and monitoring for specific issues to minimize damage [4][8] - Companies should be very diligent due to the current times [10]

Core Insights - The global Sulfolane market is projected to grow from USD 150-280 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.5%-5.5% from 2025 to 2030, driven by demand in semiconductor and battery applications [3][9]. Industry Overview - Sulfolane is a polar organic solvent known for its high thermal stability and excellent solvency, widely used in semiconductor cleaning, electrolyte formulations, and aromatic hydrocarbon extraction [2]. - The industry focuses on high-purity solvents for advanced applications, driven by demand in electronics, energy storage, and petrochemicals [2]. Regional Analysis - North America is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3%-5.3%, led by the U.S. semiconductor and petrochemical sectors [8]. - Europe is projected to achieve a CAGR of 3.0%-5.0%, with Germany emphasizing sustainable solvents for battery applications [8]. - Asia Pacific is anticipated to record the highest growth at 4.0%-6.0%, driven by semiconductor and battery industries in China, Japan, and South Korea [8]. - The Rest of the World, particularly Brazil, is expected to grow at 2.8%-4.8%, focusing on petrochemical applications [8]. Application Analysis - Semiconductor cleaning solvent applications are estimated to grow at a CAGR of 4.0%-6.0%, driven by sulfolane's use in wafer cleaning [8]. - Electrolyte solvent applications are projected to expand at 3.8%-5.8%, supported by innovations in lithium-ion batteries [8]. - Solvent for removal of benzene/toluene/xylene applications are expected to grow at 3.5%-5.5%, as sulfolane extracts aromatics in refineries [8]. Key Market Players - Chevron Phillips Chemical is a leader in sulfolane production, known for advanced solvent technologies [8]. - Sumitomo Seika specializes in sulfolane for semiconductor cleaning, emphasizing high-purity formulations [8]. - Liaoyang Liaodong Fine Chemical Co. Ltd focuses on scalable production capabilities for electrolyte solvents [8]. - The Sulfolane Company provides specialized solvent solutions for battery applications [8]. - Liaoning Guanghua Chemical emphasizes cost-competitive solutions for aromatic extraction [8]. Market Opportunities and Challenges - Rising demand for semiconductors and advancements in lithium-ion battery electrolytes enhance market growth [9]. - Emerging markets in Asia Pacific offer expansion opportunities due to electronics growth [9]. - High production costs and regulatory scrutiny on chemical solvents present challenges to market scalability [9].

China OSAT halfway through recovery — The OSAT industry is on track to its sixth quarter of YoY growth with inventory well under control. While the current cycle shows only modest growth so far, we expect the growth recovery to continue with demand rising from: 1) industrial/automotive; and 2) advanced packaging (AP) for HPC and power semis. The past OSAT growth cycles since 2001 each lasted 3-7 years. We believe the OSAT industry is still only halfway through the recovery phase. Capacity UTR still improvin ...

Core Insights - Smartkem has received a UK patent for a new method of MicroLED display manufacturing, enhancing efficiency and sustainability in the production process [1][2] - The patented method allows for selective removal of MicroLEDs from a source wafer, significantly reducing material waste and production costs compared to traditional methods [2][3] - Smartkem's IP portfolio includes 140 granted patents across 17 families, indicating a strong position in the semiconductor materials market [2][6] Company Overview - Smartkem is focused on developing advanced transistor technology using proprietary semiconductor materials, aiming to revolutionize the electronics industry [4] - The company's TRUFLEX® semiconductor polymers enable low-temperature printing processes compatible with existing manufacturing infrastructure, targeting low-cost, high-performance displays [4] - Smartkem operates R&D facilities in Manchester, UK, and provides prototyping services at the Centre for Process Innovation in Sedgefield, UK [5] Manufacturing Process - The new MicroLED manufacturing method involves preparing a MicroLED wafer, applying an adhesion layer, and selectively transferring only necessary LEDs to a display substrate [2][3] - This approach allows the source wafer to be reused multiple times, leading to lower display costs compared to traditional monolithic methods [3]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the China Securities Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index rising by 2.62% as of June 23, 10:51 AM, indicating robust market interest [1] - Major stocks in the sector, such as Jing Technology, Zhongke Feimeng, and Zhongwei Company, have shown significant gains, with Jing Technology hitting the daily limit up [1] - The Semiconductor Materials ETF has also seen a rise of 2.66%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 20.0594 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.96% [1] Group 2 - Over 5.3 billion yuan of main funds have flowed into the semiconductor sector, significantly surpassing other industries, highlighting the sector's attractiveness to investors [1] - The demand for AI computing power, driven by AI models like DeepSeek, is expected to boost the market for various semiconductor hardware, including high-performance Ethernet switches and edge computing chips [1] - The traditional consumer electronics sector is showing signs of weak recovery, with a continued trend towards domestic substitution, benefiting semiconductor companies with self-controllable capabilities [1] Group 3 - The Semiconductor Materials ETF closely tracks the China Securities Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, which includes 40 companies deeply involved in the semiconductor materials and equipment sectors [2] - The index features leading companies that have made significant technological breakthroughs in areas such as etching equipment and key materials, reflecting the trend of domestic semiconductor industry upgrades [2] - The ETF is available for investment through various channels, including specific fund connection products [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for CGN Power and Dongfang Electric, with target prices adjusted to HKD2.90 (from HKD2.70) and HKD12.30 respectively. Hyundai E&C is rated as "Buy" with a target price of KRW93,000 [4][10][51]. Core Insights - China's nuclear power capacity is projected to reach 66GW by 2025 and 110GW by 2030, accounting for 7% of the power supply mix by 2030, up from 5% in 2024. This growth is supported by the approval of at least 10 new reactors annually since 2022 [2][9][13]. - The development of small modular reactors (SMRs) is highlighted as a key area for expansion, with several projects nearing commercial operation. However, the high levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for SMRs compared to large-scale reactors and renewables presents challenges for domestic deployment [3][28][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of equipment and turnkey solution providers in capturing growth in the nuclear sector, as they are better positioned than utilities, which face longer return profiles and tariff variations [4][9]. Summary by Sections China's Nuclear Power Development - China's nuclear capacity is on track to nearly double by 2030, with significant investments in new technologies including SMRs and fusion [9][12]. - The government aims for 70GW of nuclear power by 2025, with expectations to surpass 110GW by 2030 as approvals accelerate [13][30]. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) - China is advancing in SMR technology, with projects like Shidao Bay 1 and Changjiang Linglong-1 nearing commercial operation. However, the current capex for SMRs is significantly higher than for large-scale reactors [3][28]. - The ACP100 reactor, designed for multiple applications, is set for grid connection by 2026, showcasing China's capability in SMR development [22][28]. Investment Opportunities - Key players in the nuclear supply chain include CGN Power, Dongfang Electric, and Hyundai E&C, with the latter benefiting from global nuclear expansion [4][10]. - The report identifies potential for SMR technology exports, particularly to developing markets with limited grid capacity [32]. Fusion Power - Fusion power is still in early stages, with significant challenges in achieving sustainable reactions. However, China is investing in fusion research with a target to build an industrial prototype by 2035 [33][38]. - Opportunities in the supply chain for fusion-related equipment are anticipated, driven by ongoing experimental projects [42]. Uranium Market - China's reliance on uranium imports remains high, with current prices elevated due to geopolitical tensions. The demand for uranium is expected to double by 2040, driven by the expansion of nuclear capacity [45][49].

核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 美商务部拟取消在中国运营的芯片制造商的技术豁免权，或将削弱海外公司利用中国大 陆资源的优势，改变存储全球供应链格局，建议关注国内半导体产业链： 风险提示 电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 美拟收紧半导体技术豁免，利好本土产业 链 ⚫ 国际政治经济形势变动风险；半导体景气度不及预期；半导体国产化进度不及预 期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好（维持） | 薛宏伟 | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | 朱茜 zhuqian@orientsec.com.cn | 部分存储涨价，AI ...

If uh Iran is committed to becoming a nuclear weapons power, I do think it puts the regime at risk. I really do. I think it would be the end of the regime if they tried to do that.It's a very simple decision. If what they want is nuclear reactors so they can have electricity. There are so many in the c so many other countries in the world that do that and they don't have to enrich their own uranium, they can do that.But if what they want is a secret program buried in a mountain where no one can see it and i ...