Housing Market Trends - New home sales experienced a nearly 14% month-over-month decline in May, marking the biggest drop in three years [1] - Existing home sales managed a slight increase in May despite headwinds [5] - Resale inventory is up 20% compared to last year [5] Affordability and Demand - Housing affordability has improved slightly from a year ago, but home sales continue to "bounce along the bottom" [3] - Consumer confidence dropped drastically in April, impacting housing demand [4] - A frozen labor market and a potentially rising unemployment rate pose headwinds for housing demand [4][6] Seller and Buyer Dynamics - The market is rebalancing, with bargaining power shifting towards buyers [10] - There were the most price cuts for any May since 2018, indicating sellers and buyers are coming back together [9] - Sellers are facing more competition and need to be more strategic [10] Economic Factors - The labor market is a key factor to watch, potentially more important than higher interest rates [6] - Inflation is roughly 21%, as measured by PCE [7] - The impact of tariffs is already playing itself out [8] Future Outlook - Zillow's forecasting team believes home sales could increase slightly and finish the year slightly higher than in 2024 [12]

Core Insights - Potential home buyers are increasingly concerned about rising mortgage rates, with fears that rates could exceed 7% and reach 8% or higher [1][5] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower short-term interest rates has paradoxically led to an increase in mortgage rates, highlighting the complex relationship between Fed actions and mortgage rates [2][5] - Economic factors, including government spending and fiscal concerns, are contributing to rising bond yields, which in turn affect mortgage rates [2][4] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - A bond market sell-off could lead to a significant increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, potentially pushing mortgage rates to the 8% range [4] - Historical data indicates that mortgage rates reached 8% briefly two years ago, but there is a possibility of sustained high rates if certain economic conditions arise [8] Home Affordability Impact - Research from the National Association of Home Builders shows that at a 7% mortgage rate, 31.5 million American households could afford a median-priced home of approximately $460,000, requiring a household income of over $147,000 [6] - An increase in mortgage rates to 8% could remove about 850,000 households from the housing market, further impacting affordability [7] Market Behavior and Buyer Sentiment - There is a noticeable shift among buyers from waiting for lower rates to focusing on current affordability and recognizing market opportunities [9][10] - Buyers are advised to consider the overall financial picture, including monthly payments and long-term wealth-building, rather than solely focusing on interest rates [11]

Everyone’s waiting for the Fed to cut rates—but will mortgage rates even fall when it happens? Here’s what homebuyers should know before banking on a drop that may never come. https://t.co/takTr1UAr5 ...

Mortgage rates have fallen for two consecutive days, lowering the flagship average to its cheapest level in 11 weeks. Rates dropped for several other loan types as well. https://t.co/3cwpOzLknT ...

Welcome back to Power Lunch. Some new data out this morning. Pretty gloomy picture of the housing market as new home sales fell nearly 14% in May.High mortgage rates and affordability are continuing to challenge buyers. And that was the biggest monthly drop in almost three years. Let's get some more insight on what's going on here with power broker Ryan Sirant, the founder and CEO of Sirand.And uh Ryan, I I can't res. So I mean we've we got all the developments in New York City in particular today, right. I ...

Ugly picture for new home sales this morning, hitting a seven-month low. Market doesn't like it. Diana Ol has the numbers and the why.Diana. Yeah, Kelly, you stole my word. I was going to say ugly report.No question. Look, sales of newly built homes dropped nearly 14% in May from April. The street was looking for a 6% decline.This count is based on signed contracts. So, people out shopping in May when mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. The average on the 30-year fixed mortgage started May at 6.83% 83% r ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in the U.S. is facing significant challenges this spring and summer due to high mortgage rates and uncertainty, leading potential homebuyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 1 - Navy Federal Credit Union's chief economist, Heather Long, highlights the severe conditions in the U.S. real estate market for the upcoming seasons [1] - Concerns over uncertainty and elevated mortgage rates are causing homebuyers to hesitate and refrain from making purchases [1]

30-year mortgage rates are wavering in a narrow range that's just a bit above their lowest reading since early May. Rate movement was mixed for other loan types. https://t.co/8eIrXXHdHc ...

After President Trump’s tax bill pushed mortgage rates higher in late May, momentum has reversed—with monthly payments now notably more affordable. https://t.co/JMSd8s4NON ...

30-year mortgage rates have been yo-yoing, with the latest move being a two-day dip that approaches a six-week low. Rates for many other loan types have fallen as well. https://t.co/YTUsoQK8QE ...