Core Viewpoint - The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report projects a decrease in U.S. crude oil production by 50,000 barrels per day by 2026, revised from a previous estimate of 70,000 barrels per day [1] Group 1 - The EIA's updated forecast indicates a downward adjustment in expected crude oil production levels for the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The United States is projected to experience a decline in crude oil production in 2026, marking the first decrease since 2021 [1] Industry Summary - The anticipated drop in crude oil production is significant as it indicates a shift in the U.S. energy landscape, potentially affecting global oil supply and prices [1]

摘要：【图】2025年3月新疆维吾尔自治区原油产量数据分析 2025年3月原油产量统计： 原油产量：296.4 万吨 同比增长：4.4% 增速较上一年同期变化：高6.9个百分点 原油产量：852.2 万吨 同比增长：1.7% 增速较上一年同期变化：高1.6个百分点 据统计，2025年1－3月，新疆维吾尔自治区规模以上工业企业原油产量与上年同期相比增长了1.7%， 达852.2万吨，增速较上一年同期高1.6个百分点，继续保持增长，增速较同期全国高0.6个百分点，约占 同期全国规模以上企业原油产量5408.8万吨的比重为15.8%。详见下图： 图2：新疆维吾尔自治区原油产量分月（累计值）统计图 据统计，2025年3月新疆维吾尔自治区规模以上工业企业原油产量与上年同期相比增长了4.4%，达296.4 万吨，增速较上一年同期高6.9个百分点，增速较同期全国高0.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 原油产量1902.5万吨的比重为15.6%。 详见下图： 图1：新疆维吾尔自治区原油产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-3月原油产量统计： 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - **Industry开工率**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].

摘要：【图】2025年3月上海市液化石油气产量统计分析 2025年1-3月液化石油气产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，上海市规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量累计达到了26.3万 吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了7.9%，增速较2024年同期高2.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低6.4 个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量1357万吨的比重为1.9%。 图表：上海市液化石油气产量分月（累计值）统计 单独看2025年3月份，上海市规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量达到了8.5万吨，与2024年同期的数据相 比，3月份的产量下降了18.7%，增速较2024年同期低12.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低15.9个百分点， 约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量451.5万吨的比重为1.9%。 图表：上海市液化石油气产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 | 石油化工行业最新动态 | 石油市场调研及发展趋势 | 化工行业监测及发展趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-10 郑棉期价小幅反弹，关注中美新一轮谈判 棉花观点 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13495元/吨，较前一日变动+135元/吨，幅度+1.01%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14485元/吨，较前一日变动+42元/吨，现货基差CF09+990，较前一日变动-93；3128B棉全国均价14620元/ 吨，较前一日变动+59元/吨，现货基差CF09+1125，较前一日变动-76。 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，据中国棉花信息网对全国棉花交易市场18个省市的154家棉花交割和监管仓库、社会仓库、保税区 库存和加工企业库存调查数据显示，5月底全国棉花商业库存345.87万吨，较上月减少69.39万吨，降幅16.71%，低 于去年同期31.54万吨，降幅8.36%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续偏强震荡。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过关税不 确定性仍强，需持续关注近日在伦敦进行的中美会谈结果。国际方面，当前美棉播种进度持续偏慢，支撑棉价， 不过主产区近期降雨偏多，旱情较前期持续改善，其他国家供应端天气的叙事性目前也不足，国际棉价短期预计 ...

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摘要：【图】2025年3月内蒙古自治区煤油产量数据分析 2025年1-3月煤油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，内蒙古自治区规模以上工业企业煤油产量累计达到了4.7万 吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了21.0%，增速较2024年同期高36.1个百分点，增速较同期全国高 22.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业煤油产量1398.9万吨的比重为0.3%。 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业监测及发展趋势 化工未来发展趋势预测 日化现状及发展前景 润滑油发展前景趋势分析 汽油的现状和发展趋势 柴油行业现状与发展趋势 橡胶市场现状及前景分析 塑料市场调研与发展前景 化妆品发展现状及前景预测清洁护肤市场调研及发展趋势 图表：内蒙古自治区煤油产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年3月煤油产量分析： 单独看2025年3月份，内蒙古自治区规模以上工业企业煤油产量达到了1.7万吨，与2024年同期的数据相 比，3月份的产量增长了18.2%，增速较2024年同期高36.8个百分点， ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 PVC 基本面数据 09合约期货价格 华东现货价格 基差 9-1月差 4816 4700 -116 -79 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货市场价格维持平稳，盘中价格震荡上涨，周末电石原料价格反弹，带动盘中成本性推涨； 华东地区电石法五型现汇库提成交偏淡，现货价格重心维持在 4650-4750 元/吨，乙烯法在 4800-5050 元 /吨。 【市场状况分析】 基本面看，当前西北氯碱一体化仍有利润，PVC 高产量，高库存的结构难以缓解。不过由于 PVC 估值 低位，空头止盈意愿也较强，不宜追空。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量低于 2023 年同期，高产量格局持续。一方面氯碱成本下滑， 另一方面 2025 年烧碱需求支撑尚可，维持较高利润，氯碱产业链以碱补氯，这也加大了 PVC 自身因亏损导 致大规模减产的难度。此外，未来仍有较多产能投产，尤其在 6-7 月将面临新增产能投放，预计投产达到 110 万 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wheat prices have declined from a seven-week high due to improved yield expectations in Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, driven by favorable weather conditions [1] Price Movement - Chicago wheat futures fell by 2.7% to $5.40 per bushel, marking a decrease from the peak levels seen since mid-April [1] Market Dynamics - Prior to this decline, grain prices had been on an upward trend, largely due to optimistic expectations that competitively priced U.S. wheat would boost global demand [1] - However, the ample supply from Russia may hinder U.S. exporters from expanding their sales further [1]