证券研究报告 固收 细数债市"微操"策略 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 固定收益周报 报告核心观点 2025 年已行至年中，投资者对债市操作难度攀升感受越发深刻。当前债市 趋势在，但利率下行空间受限、票面低、波动区间窄、交易"内卷"加剧、 策略挖掘过度等困境。投资者重点关注换券、信用债 ETF 重仓券埋伏、压 缩利差以及一级投标博边际等"微操"策略，获取α机会，不过目前已较为 拥挤。向前看，债市方向整体略偏多、空间有限，利差压缩等"微操"行情 仍可能有一定惯性。不过长端信用利差已较低，即便还能压缩，也要考虑配 置盘缺位以及可能的波动。此外，换券操作有所失灵，上周信用债 ETF 指 数成分券的利差压缩已到极致，建议投资者适度规避甚至"反其道行之"。 策略一："逐渐失灵"的换券操作 今年以来债市投资者对新老券"换券"等小策略的关注度不断上升，交易盘不 断超前"做左侧"。历史数据统计来看，换券操作能够起到一定的增厚效果。 不过二季度以来，随着市场进入交易"内卷"阶段，换券策略的赚钱效应存在 "失灵"迹象。一方面，新券向活跃券的转换周期显著缩短；另一方面，新老 券套息空间持续收窄，市场甚至在新券上市前就提 ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 信用债 ETF 性价比几何？ ——信用债热点事件系列 投资要点： 目前，首批 10 只科创债 ETF 集中获批待上市，科创债 ETF 自身的稀缺性以及市场 对科创债自今年 5 月份主体扩容以来的高度关注，年初以来的信用债 ETF 快速扩容 的行情或有可能在科创债 ETF 上再度演绎，相关成分券的利差压缩空间或可期待。 结构性的机会上，我们建议投资者结合负债端属性以及交易风格，通过适度下沉和 拉长久期等方式提前布局成分券中的科创债，并抢配同为 8 只信用债 ETF 成分券的 非可续期科创债。 风险提示：1）数据来源和数据处理偏误风险：本文数据主要来自于同花顺 ifind 等， 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 1.基准做市信用债 ETF 快速扩容 今年年初以来持续的低利率环境下，信用债相比之下具有较高的板块贝塔，中等期限信 用债具有明显的静态票息优势，市场对信用债 ETF 的关注度明显提升。2025 年初以前，市 场上仅有 3 只信用债 ETF ...

信用利差再度压缩 二永债表现强势 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 7 月 5 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | ] | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 邮 | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3信用利差再度压缩 二永债表现强势 [Table_ReportDate ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] ESG 投资评级 —— 上次评级 —— 欧盟委员会提出《欧洲气候法》修订案，设定 2040 年减排目标 [Table_Industry] ESG 周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 05 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 欧盟委员会提出《欧洲气候法》修订案，设定 2040 年减排目标 [T ...

昨天， 发生了哪些财经大事？ 美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项立法。危险在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基 础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥巴马总统任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控 制债务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出，在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下，该法案将进一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日 益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 此前，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月下调了美国主权信用评级，这是第三家下调美国主权信用评级的主 要国际评级机构。 特朗普签署"大而美"法案 据央视新闻，当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。 美国国会众议院3日下午以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"法案。该法案已于本月1日获参议院通 过。美国国内担忧该法案将进一步加剧美国财政赤字与债务风险。 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。该法案主要内容包括延长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过 的企业和个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "One-Stop Credit Repair" platform aims to streamline the credit repair process for restructured and reconciled enterprises, providing efficient solutions for businesses to overcome credit difficulties and re-enter the market [1][2] Group 1: Credit Repair Process - The "One-Stop Credit Repair" platform digitizes the credit repair process, allowing for a unified approach to handle tax, finance, and judicial credit repairs [1] - The platform addresses the challenges faced by restructured and reconciled enterprises, which previously had to navigate multiple departments and faced inconsistent rules and systems [2] Group 2: Collaboration and Efficiency - The initiative involves collaboration between the court and various administrative departments to create a coordinated approach for credit repair, enhancing government management efficiency [2] - Enterprises can submit a single application through the platform, covering seven categories of credit repair needs, thus optimizing the process from "multiple visits" to "one-stop service" [2] Group 3: Goals and Future Directions - The implementation of this credit repair mechanism aims to help distressed enterprises reintegrate into the market and improve the quality of bankruptcy restructuring [2] - The court plans to continue exploring reforms in the credit repair mechanism to support high-quality economic and social development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Implementation Plan for Further Improving the Credit Repair System" by the State Council signifies a shift in China's credit regulation from "strict entry and lenient management" to "lenient entry and strict management," which is essential for optimizing the business environment and enhancing the integrity awareness of dishonest entities [1] Group 1 - The credit repair system is a crucial institutional arrangement in the construction of China's social credit system [1] - The implementation of the plan provides a more standardized and transparent repair channel for dishonest entities [1] - The improvement of the credit repair system is significant for the development quality of business entities and impacts the employment and livelihood of millions of workers [1]

美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案 来源：央视新闻 美国智库曼哈顿研究所高级研究员里德尔表示，这可能是自20世纪60年代以来最昂贵的一项 立法。危险在于，在赤字已经大幅增长的基础上，国会又将增加数万亿美元新借款。曾在奥 巴马总统任期内担任经济顾问委员会主席的杰森·弗曼指出，该法案可能使立法者更难控制债 务。 目前，美国国债已高达36.2万亿美元。美国媒体指出，在美国债务已达历史高位的情况下， 该法案将进一步扩大结构性赤字。"美国日益增长的债务负担将惩罚子孙后代。" 此前，由于美国政府债务及利息支出增加，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月下调了美国主权信用评 级，这是第三家下调美国主权信用评级的主要国际评级机构。 "大而美"法案已于本月1日获参议院通过。 当地时间7月4日， 美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。 美国国会众议院3日下午以218票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大而 美"法案。美国国内担忧该法案将进一步加剧美国财政赤字与债务风险。 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。该法案主要内容包括延 长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of Changjiang Securities Co., Ltd. at AAA, indicating strong financial health and stability in the company's operations [1][4][5]. Company Overview - Changjiang Securities is a medium-sized listed securities company with a high industry position and a comprehensive risk management system [4][5]. - As of March 2025, the company has a registered capital of 5.53 billion yuan and operates 298 branches nationwide, maintaining a leading position in the industry [4][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating income slightly decreased year-on-year, while net profit significantly increased, demonstrating strong profitability [4][5]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's total assets amounted to 1717.72 billion yuan, with net capital at 25.74 billion yuan, indicating robust capital strength [8][11]. Rating Outlook - The rating outlook is stable, with expectations for business growth and enhanced competitive strength as the capital market continues to develop [5][6]. - Potential factors for rating upgrades are not applicable, while significant losses or major compliance issues could lead to downgrades [5]. Competitive Advantages - The company has strong capital strength, with a net capital ratio of 72.94% as of the end of 2024, positioning it well within the industry [8]. - The company ranks well in various business segments, with brokerage income ranked 19th, fund distribution commission income ranked 3rd, and asset management income ranked 31st in the industry [5][8]. Shareholder Changes - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a major shareholder change, which is expected to enhance its resource access and market competitiveness [6][11].

Group 1 - The 2025 Global Digital Economy Conference focused on the integration of credit and digital economy, discussing practical paths for high-quality development [1] - The forum emphasized the importance of technological innovation and ecosystem construction in enhancing the digital economy [1] Group 2 - Cities like Hangzhou, Zhuhai, and Beijing are actively innovating credit systems to empower small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2] - Hangzhou has established a comprehensive credit system covering four major areas, accumulating 994 million credit information records and embedding credit checks into 38 business systems [2] - Zhuhai has developed a cross-border credit service platform to support trade cooperation and financial innovation, facilitating access to credit information for over 400,000 market entities [2] Group 3 - Beijing's Tongzhou District is addressing green financing challenges for SMEs by creating a "credit + green finance" ecosystem, integrating environmental performance and compliance into a comprehensive green credit evaluation system [3] - This initiative aims to help financial institutions identify quality clients that meet green lending standards [3] Group 4 - The integration of credit economy and digital economy is seen as beneficial for reducing transaction and management costs, optimizing resource allocation [4] - Experts suggest establishing a business credit system focused on accounts receivable to address the issue of delayed payments among enterprises [4] - New technologies like AI and big data are expected to enhance credit system restructuring, improving risk identification for SMEs [4] Group 5 - The "Beijing Credit Service Industry Development Blue Book (2025)" indicates that by the end of 2024, there were 154 credit institutions registered with the People's Bank of China, with 35 located in Beijing [5] - The credit industry in Beijing provided 22.251 billion credit products and services in 2024, marking a nearly 7% year-on-year growth, with business revenue reaching 8.997 billion yuan, a 28.6% increase [5]