澳洲联储会议纪要：力度更大的行动或为应对不利的全球经济形势提供更多保障。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A U.S. court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy is invalid, raising questions about presidential authority in trade matters and causing significant market reactions [3][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Context - The tariff policy was announced by Trump on April 2, aimed at addressing perceived unfairness in the global trade system and reducing the trade deficit [5][6]. - The policy imposed varying tariffs on multiple countries, intending to pressure them into renegotiating trade agreements [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs have negatively affected global economic stability, leading to rising costs for U.S. companies, particularly those reliant on exports, and increasing consumer prices [6][8]. - Economists and industry associations have warned that high tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and weaken U.S. competitiveness in international markets [8]. Group 3: Legal and Political Reactions - The court's ruling was based on the U.S. Constitution, which assigns tariff authority to Congress, not the president, and deemed Trump's claims of a national emergency unfounded [9][10]. - Despite the ruling, Trump plans to appeal, indicating a potential prolonged legal battle over the tariff policy [10][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the court's decision, global markets reacted strongly, with U.S. stock futures showing significant gains, reflecting investor optimism about the potential repeal of the tariffs [11][13]. - A successful repeal could restore confidence in global markets, encouraging multinational companies to increase foreign investments and enhancing capital flow [13].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which may be the last cut in the current cycle [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The anticipated rate cut is influenced by declining energy prices and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [1] - The global economic recession risk has decreased, prompting a more cautious approach to further policy actions [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations are fully aligned with the anticipated 25 basis point cut on Thursday, with another cut expected before the end of the year [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market opened higher today, showing a complex trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which remains a key factor [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with core inflation still above target, leading to a stronger US dollar (currently around 101.98), which pressures gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve officials signal a dovish stance in the future, gold prices may receive a boost [1] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and military dynamics in the Yellow Sea, may drive short-term safe-haven demand for gold [3] - However, easing US-China tariffs and expectations of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could weaken market risk appetite, negatively impacting gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has shown frequent fluctuations in holdings, indicating significant market divergence [3] - Current gold prices are oscillating between $3280 and $3325, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3325; a breakout above $3325 could lead to a rise to $3365, while a drop below $3270 may see prices fall to $3260 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing price differentiation across different trading markets, influenced by an unclear global economic recovery outlook [4] - Geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions continue to disrupt the market, despite some countries implementing stimulus policies [4] - Industrial demand for silver is supported by its applications in photovoltaic and electronic industries, with steady growth in demand from the solar sector [4] - However, cyclical fluctuations in the electronics sector introduce uncertainty in silver demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in silver ETF holdings reflect investors' wavering confidence in the market [4] - Short-term support for silver prices is around $33 per ounce, with resistance seen at the $33.5-$33.8 per ounce range [6] - The MACD indicator shows signs of balance between bullish and bearish forces, while the RSI indicates a neutral to slightly bullish state [6] - The silver price is within an upward channel on the weekly chart, but faces resistance from previous highs, requiring strong trading volume for a breakout [6]

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed on a significant production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day for July during an online meeting on May 31 [1][2] - Concerns over multiple oil-producing countries accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $60.79 and $63.90 per barrel, respectively [1][2] - The overall decline in international oil prices this year has been approximately 15%, raising concerns about the future performance of the oil extraction industry [2] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil market is currently oversupplied by 2.2 million barrels per day, suggesting that price adjustments may be necessary to restore balance [3] - Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares noted that if OPEC+ countries increase supply as expected, oil prices could drop by about 10%, potentially reaching $53 to $55 per barrel [4] - The low oil prices pose financial risks to oil producers worldwide, particularly affecting U.S. shale oil producers who may struggle to respond to calls for increased drilling [4]

Group 1 - The summit between ASEAN, China, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) emphasizes the importance of friendship and partnership among these regions, highlighting trust, dialogue, and common interests as the foundation for a better future [1] - The UAE views the Gulf region as a strategic bridge connecting Asia and the Arab world, serving as a vital corridor for trade, culture, and cooperation [1] - The UAE is committed to deepening partnerships with ASEAN and China, aiming for broader growth and coordination that aligns with its vision of building trust-based relationships for global stability and prosperity [1] Group 2 - The UAE's Foreign Trade Minister emphasized that enhancing cooperation among Asian countries can accelerate growth, drive innovation, and solidify the region's emergence as a global economic powerhouse [2] - The UAE aims to strengthen trade and investment partnerships globally, with a focus on Asian countries as natural collaborators [2] - The UAE has signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with countries like Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia, targeting a non-oil trade volume with ASEAN nations to reach $37.7 billion by 2024 [2]

格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 2025年5月30日 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 美国商业原油库存 美国库欣原油库存 440,000- 420,000 400,000 04-02 04-30 05-28 06-25 07-23 08-20 09-17 10-15 11-12 12-10 01-09 02-06 03-05 -2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 == 2025 数据来源:Wind 36,000 30,000 24,000 18,000 04-02 04-30 05-28 06-25 07-23 08-20 09-17 10-15 11-12 01-09 02-06 03-05 = 2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 == 2025 数据来源:Wind 美国油品总库存 数据解读:EIA公布最新一期库存数据显示,截止至上周,美国商业原油库存量4.40363亿桶,比前一周下降280万 桶;美国汽油库存 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to reassess the declining attractiveness of U.S. assets and its implications for financial stability both domestically and internationally [1][2] - Recent market trends indicate a noticeable decrease in the safe-haven demand for U.S. assets during periods of stress, raising concerns among investors regarding the handling of U.S. assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlighted that the persistent shift in the correlation of U.S. assets and the decline in their safe-haven status could have long-term economic impacts [1] Group 2 - The sharp turn in trade policy is reshaping global supply chains and amplifying corporate financial vulnerabilities, making it increasingly critical to understand the intersection of corporate financial health and international trade exposure [2] - The imposition of tariffs has introduced significant uncertainty, which may suppress economic activity and potentially increase inflation [2]

金十数据5月29日讯，油价上涨，但回吐了盘中早些时候的部分涨幅。周三美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗 普总统的全面"解放日"关税不合法后，布伦特原油早盘一度攀升至65.50美元的高位。这一裁决提振了 市场的风险偏好情绪，缓解了对全球经济增长放缓的担忧。白宫表示将对该裁决提出上诉。此外，美国 可能对俄罗斯实施新制裁，威胁减少石油出口，这也推动油价小幅走高。不过，欧佩克+可能在7月增 产的预期在一定程度上抵消了这一影响。 美法院裁定关税非法推升油价后回落 ...

最近这段时间，价格波动最大的资产就是黄金了。 5 月 15 日盘中， 金价大幅跳水。 现货黄金最低下探至 3120 美元 / 盎司，日内跌幅一度接近 1.8% ； COMEX 黄金期货一度跌超 2% ，最低触及 3123 美元 / 盎司。随后金价出现反弹。 要知道，上个月黄金涨得最猛的时候，现货黄金最高一度涨到了 3500 美元 / 盎司。短短两周时间，黄金 价格就跌了将近 400 美元 / 盎司，妥妥的大跳水行情。 现在的黄金价格，相当于是把对等关税短暂实施期间的涨幅全部跌了回去。 那在关税顺利协商、不确定性告一段落之后，黄金价格是不是就没有了支撑涨到头了呢？ 所以黄金的牛市，不是开始于2025年，只是因为最近懂王的关税，涨得太疯狂，才让市场开始看到黄金 夸张的价格走向。 对于接下来黄金价格的走势，我们的观点也很明确： 为什么黄金会在2022年下半年之后持续上涨？ 黄金的调整，只是短期的； 有几个关键的推动因素。 黄金价格，接下来还会有长牛行情。 首先我们要知道这一轮黄金行情不是开始于今年，而是开始于 2022 年 7 月之后。 从 2022 年下半年开始，黄金的行情启动， 从1900美元 / 盎司涨到了如 ...