Group 1 - The UK labor market has shown signs of accelerated weakness since April, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level in nearly four years at 4.6% for the period of February to April 2025, which is higher than both the previous year and the prior quarter [1][2] - Employee income growth is slowing down, with wages excluding bonuses increasing by 5.2% and including bonuses by 5.3% for the same period, which is below market expectations [1][2] - The number of job vacancies in the UK labor market has been declining, with 736,000 vacancies reported for March to May, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous quarter, marking the 35th consecutive quarter of decline [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the labor market is attributed to rising employer costs, including an increase in national insurance tax by approximately £25 billion and a minimum wage increase of about 6.7%, which have led to reduced hiring intentions among businesses [3] - The retail sector has been particularly affected, with a reported decrease of 93,000 employees year-on-year, indicating a significant impact on employment levels [2][3] - The rising costs of hiring, with full-time recruitment costs in retail up by 10% and part-time costs up by 13%, are contributing to the overall strain on the labor market [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of labor market weakness has prompted expectations that the Bank of England may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, leading to a depreciation of the British pound against the US dollar [4] - Industry leaders are calling for government intervention to support businesses through effective industrial strategies and to expedite the training of skilled workers as a crucial measure to improve the labor market situation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the UK labor market will continue to weaken, leading the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy [1] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate is expected to rise above the Bank of England's modal forecast, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [1] - In May, employment numbers decreased by 109,000, marking the most significant drop since May 2020, which paints a concerning picture of the labor market [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will decrease from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to a low of 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1]

英国国家统计局：劳动力市场持续走弱，领取薪资的就业人数显著减少。劳动力空缺调查显示，企业推 迟招聘新员工或者取代旧的员工。 ...

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高盛集团CEO Solomon：担心美国（劳动力）市场上的年轻人接受教育的程度不够。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the release of the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihoods" which addresses key issues such as social insurance for new employment forms and the removal of household registration restrictions for participating in social insurance [1][2] - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a social insurance system for new employment forms, particularly focusing on occupational injury protection for gig economy workers [1][2] - The removal of household registration restrictions is seen as crucial for allowing workers, such as delivery riders, to access local pension and medical insurance, facilitating a unified national labor market [2] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for improvements in social security for low-income groups and mentions initiatives to enhance services for the elderly and children, promoting inclusive development [3] - It specifically points out the necessity to eliminate unreasonable policies that restrict elderly participation in social activities and to support the development of diverse job opportunities for older workers [3]

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，5月美国非农新增数据略超预期、但前值再现下修，家庭调查口径下的劳动参与率下降，或反映出移民政策变 化的影响，同时劳动力供给减少压制了失业率的反弹，整体上劳动力市场仍在温和降温的正轨方向。4月美国非农新增数据略超预期，家庭调查口径下 的数据细节亦反映出劳动力市场仍具韧性，工资增速放缓。由于本周ADP数据低于预期加重了海外市场对于就业快速恶化的担忧情绪，风险解除后，美 债收益率曲线抬升，美元指数走强，美股三大指数出现反弹，海外市场对美联储6月降息的预期概率降温。 具体来看： 1）5月非农新增13.9万人，小幅高于市场预期，但前月数据再现下修，4月非农新增数据从初值17.7万人下修至14.7万人，3月数据从18.5万人再度下修至 12万人，合计下修9.5万人4月非农新增17.7万人，高于市场预期的13.8万人，同时前月数据明显下修，3月非农新增数据从初值的22.8万人下修至18.5万 人，2月数据从11.7万人再度下修至10.2万人，合计下修5.8万人。 2）分行业来看，政府部门录得-0.1万人（前值0.1万人），其中联邦政府录得-2.2万人（前值-1.3万人），州政府录得0 ...

周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，由于特朗普政府进口关税的不确定性，全美5月份的就业增长有所放 缓，但稳健的工资增长应能使经济扩张保持正轨，并可能使美联储推迟恢复降息。 利率市场仍预期美联储今年将降息2次。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次施压美联储降息，然而市场定价显示，今年美联储的政策空间依然相 对有限。 非农数据暗藏隐患 在周三公布的ADP私营就业数据降至两年低位后，政府版的就业指标——非农就业报告依然表现稳定。 5月新增就业岗位13.9万个，好于市场预期的12.5万个。 分部门看，医疗部门贡献了6.2万个新工作岗位，休闲和酒店行业新雇佣了4.8万名员工，这两个行业创 造了上月近80%的职位。相比之下，制造业、零售业、政府的就业人数有所下降。 失业率连续第三个月稳定在4.2%，因为62.5万人退出劳动力市场，这表明对就业市场缺乏信心。调查显 示，消费者对在被解雇的情况下找到工作的前景不太乐观。小时工资大幅增长0.4%，超过了市场预 测，同比增长率为3.9%，略高于美联储的可持续通胀预期薪资增速3.7%。 值得注意的是，前两个月数据被大幅下修，这是贸易战酝酿并开始的阶段，可能显示作为经济基石的有 弹性的美国劳动 ...