Group 1 - The stock of Guolian Aquatic triggered trading information due to significant price fluctuations on July 2, with notable buying activity from various trading desks [1] - The top buying seat was from Guotai Junan Securities Chengdu North First Ring Road branch, amounting to 54.56 million yuan, associated with the well-known speculative group "Chengdu Gang" [1] - Other significant buying desks included Yichang Yangtze River Avenue branch at 52.74 million yuan and Huaxin Securities Shanghai branch at 16.86 million yuan, indicating a diverse buying interest [1] Group 2 - The selling side showed a mix of institutional and speculative funds, with two institutional desks collectively selling 26.91 million yuan [1] - The second-largest selling desk was from Aijian Securities Nanchang Honggu Middle Road branch, selling 13.64 million yuan, marking its first appearance on the stock's trading leaderboard in three months [1] - The stock has been listed once in the past month, with significant price volatility observed, reflecting a regional speculative fund interaction on the buy side and institutional funds exiting on the sell side [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden resignation of Zhang Liandong as chairman of Yanghe Co. marks a significant leadership change amid declining performance and market challenges, with Gu Yu appointed as the new leader to navigate the company through its current crisis [1][4][15]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Zhang Liandong resigned from all positions at Yanghe on July 1, 2023, after four and a half years of leadership, citing "work adjustment" as the reason [1][4]. - Gu Yu, the new chairman, is a 47-year-old local government official with a similar career trajectory to Zhang, indicating a preference for leadership with strong local government ties [4][11]. - The leadership change comes as Yanghe's revenue ranking has dropped from third to fifth in the industry, and its stock price has significantly declined [1][4]. Group 2: Performance Overview - Under Zhang's leadership, Yanghe's revenue reached over 30 billion yuan in 2022, becoming the third company to cross the 30 billion yuan mark in the industry [5]. - However, in 2024, Yanghe faced a revenue decline of 12.83% to 28.876 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 33.37% to 6.673 billion yuan, with a record quarterly loss of 1.905 billion yuan [6][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued the downward trend, with revenue falling by 31.92% and net profit decreasing by 39.93%, the largest decline among leading liquor companies [7][12]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Yanghe's main products are suffering from a price collapse in the mid-range and sub-premium segments, which are experiencing the most severe demand drop [9]. - High inventory levels are a significant issue, with stock reaching 19.733 billion yuan by the end of 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of total assets, and inventory turnover days approaching 900 [9][10]. - The company has implemented quota controls on its products to manage inventory, revealing serious channel crises [10]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Yanghe has announced a three-year dividend plan, promising annual cash dividends of no less than 70% of net profit, aiming to restore investor confidence [10]. - The new chairman, Gu Yu, faces the challenge of reversing the trend of declining revenue and maintaining strategic continuity, particularly with the "dual brand strategy" and high-end product launches [12][15]. - The company must also address the significant gap in incentives for current management compared to previous executives, which could impact motivation and performance [10]. Group 5: Industry Context - The leadership transition at Yanghe reflects broader challenges in the Chinese liquor industry, which is shifting from a growth phase to a more competitive environment focused on existing market share [15][16]. - The industry is facing pressures from changing consumer demographics, particularly the rise of Generation Z, and the need for traditional brands to adapt to new market dynamics [15][16]. - Yanghe's experience may serve as a case study for the industry, highlighting the vulnerabilities of mid-range liquor brands during economic fluctuations [15][16].

| | | 3400 点有效突破可能性较大:我们在年度策略判断本轮行情是结构性慢牛,目前来看市场走势正在强化,中期货将我们提 出目前时点,A 股正站在新一轮结构性侵牛的起点,3400突破以后是新征程的起点,市场有望展开新一轮慢牛。 核心逻辑: 1) 全球化与逆全球化的矛盾。逆转不了中国全球化的布局、未来重塑的是全球贸易利益新格局，在经历贸易战之后,中国 海外布局必将加快进程。2)中国制造业作为全球产业链的核心,凭借其规模、供应链完整性、创新能力和成本效率,长期 占据竞争优势地位。2011年起,中国制造业增加值超越美国成为全球最大的制造业大国,凸显其不可替代性。3）中国军事 实力提升,是中国全球化进程的战略保障,有利于一带一路布局和企业整体性出海的战略自信,随着中国军事力量逐步具备 全球投射能力、全球对中国资产信心度提升将会起到促进作用。4）中国股市资产质量逐步优化,IPO 发行从注重融资数量 的增量思维向提高存量思维转变，2024年开始 IPO 融资规模大幅降低,同时，并购重组日益受到管理层重视，连续出台鼓 关证券股份有限公司证券 报 H A 股策略周报:开启新征程 2025年7月2日 策略周报 东兴证券策略 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia's Economic Coordinating Minister Erlangga announced a strategic proposal to the U.S. for joint investment in a rare earth mineral project, coinciding with the impending 32% punitive tariffs set by the Trump administration [1][14] - The project aims to establish the largest electric vehicle battery supply chain in ASEAN, highlighting Indonesia's ambition in the electric vehicle sector [2] - Indonesia possesses significant rare earth reserves of 12 million tons, which is a crucial factor in its negotiations with the U.S. and its plans for a rare earth export ban by December 2024 to enhance its bargaining power [16][20] Group 2 - The U.S. faces a critical dependency on China for rare earth elements, with the Pentagon acknowledging that its stockpiles could only last 60 days in the event of a complete Chinese export ban [29] - Despite the U.S. having substantial rare earth resources, its refining technology lags significantly behind China's, which holds 92.3% of the global rare earth separation capacity [7][22] - Indonesia's pivot towards the U.S. is seen as a response to the trade pressures from China, reflecting a broader trend of smaller nations navigating between major powers [11][12] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape is complicated by the fact that many countries, including Japan and members of the EU, are struggling with rare earth shortages, indicating a widespread crisis in securing these critical materials [24][26] - The historical context reveals a shift in U.S. policy, where initial claims of independence from Chinese supply chains have been contradicted by urgent requests for high-purity rare earth supplies from China [28] - Indonesia's strategy may ultimately face challenges due to the entrenched dominance of China in the rare earth supply chain, making it difficult for any new partnerships to significantly alter the existing dynamics [20][28]

文︱陆弃 近日，德国企业破产潮不断升级，已达到十年来最高水平，数据显示，2025年上半年共有约1.19万家企 业宣告破产，涉及员工14.1万人。这组令人震惊的数字不仅揭示了德国经济正在经历的严重衰退，更暴 露出其深层次的结构性危机和对外依赖的脆弱性。而这一切背后，美欧之间复杂且充满不确定性的贸易 博弈，正如烈焰一般，烧穿了这个"欧洲经济引擎"的肌理。 德国经济曾被誉为欧洲的支柱，制造业和出口导向型经济模式长期支撑着其稳定增长。然而，这个曾经 的经济奇迹如今却陷入了沉重的困境。数据显示，企业破产率比去年同期激增9.4%，而这背后的根 源，绝非偶然。需求疲软、成本上升、全球贸易不确定性叠加，成为压垮这座经济大厦的最后一根稻 草。尤其是美国对德国商品出口的潜在关税威胁，更是给德国出口商蒙上了巨大的阴影，使得本就脆弱 的德国经济雪上加霜。 德国国内生产总值第一季度虽然小幅增长0.2%，但这并不能掩盖经济深层次的病症。作为德国最大的 贸易伙伴，美国与欧盟之间悬而未决的贸易谈判，充满了不确定性和对抗色彩。慕尼黑经济研究所指 出，关税威胁的阴云仍笼罩在谈判桌上，出口商的信心指数从5月的-5.0继续下滑至-7.4，明显表现出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market is entering a traditional demand off-season in July, with weak terminal procurement leading to a significant slowdown in inventory depletion, while the end of the safety production month is expected to weaken cost support from raw materials, resulting in a fluctuating steel price range [2][21]. Production and Supply - The operating rate of blast furnaces initially decreased and then increased, while the operating rate of electric arc furnaces saw a significant decline. As of June 26, the operating rate for independent electric arc furnaces was 36.36%, down 9.09 percentage points month-on-month and year-on-year. The operating rate for blast furnaces was 78.27%, down 0.64 percentage points month-on-month and 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Steel production data shows that as of June 25, the total weekly production of construction steel was 3.1985 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 81,000 tons (2.47%) and a year-on-year decrease of 204,100 tons (6%). The total weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.6479 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons (2.82%) but a year-on-year decrease of 237,500 tons (6.11%) [5]. - In June, steel mills increased their production cuts and maintenance efforts compared to May, with a notable increase in maintenance for rebar and a decrease for hot-rolled and wire rod [7]. Demand and Consumption - In June, steel consumption across various categories saw a month-on-month decline, with hot-rolled coils down 5.7%, cold-rolled down 6.9%, medium plates down 4.5%, and construction materials down 8.5%. Expectations for July indicate further declines, albeit at a reduced rate [9][11]. - The apparent consumption of construction steel as of June 25 was 3.2054 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 204,800 tons (6.01%) and a year-on-year decrease of 149,300 tons (4.45%). For hot-rolled coils, the apparent consumption was 3.6405 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,080 tons (0.3%) and a year-on-year decrease of 262,800 tons (6.73%) [13]. Inventory - Steel inventory depletion has slowed, with total inventory levels significantly lower than the same period last year. As of June 25, the total inventory of construction steel was 6.8585 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 594,200 tons (7.97%) and a year-on-year decrease of 1.8992 million tons (21.69%). The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 3.0916 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 85,000 tons (2.68%) and a year-on-year decrease of 624,300 tons (16.8%) [15][17]. Profitability - In June, the profitability of blast furnace steel mills expanded, while electric arc furnace steel mills continued to incur losses. As of June 27, the production profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 203 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton month-on-month, while electric arc furnaces reported a loss of 248 yuan/ton. The profit for hot-rolled coils from blast furnaces was 223 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan/ton month-on-month [19][20]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to July, the domestic steel market will face intensified supply-demand dynamics due to the high-temperature off-season. The demand is expected to weaken further, while the cost support from raw materials is anticipated to diminish. Despite the low valuation of current steel prices and low overall inventory, the expected increase in maintenance and production cuts at steel mills may lead to a fluctuating price range [21].

Group 1 - The core concern expressed by South Korean media is not the Taiwan Strait situation, but rather the decline of U.S. power and the potential abandonment of South Korea by the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has shown a lack of substantial trade agreements with allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the EU in the past 90 days, while frequently imposing tariffs, indicating a self-serving approach that disregards ally interests [3] - The U.S. is demanding NATO members to significantly increase military spending to 5% of GDP, reflecting a shift away from unconditional security commitments to allies [5] Group 2 - South Korea's media concerns about the Taiwan Strait are linked to the perceived weakening of U.S. influence in the global arena, which raises doubts about the reliability of U.S. security commitments to South Korea [7] - The reduction of U.S. Marine Corps troops from the Okinawa base and ambiguous positions on the Korean Peninsula further illustrate South Korea's anxieties regarding U.S. support [7] - The pressure from the U.S. regarding trade and troop cost-sharing has severely damaged South Korea's trust in the U.S. alliance, leading to a strategic approach of highlighting Taiwan Strait issues to draw U.S. attention to South Korean security [7]

当特朗普挥舞关税大棒时，第一个撑不住的竟是加拿大——这个曾高喊"绝不妥协"的美国铁杆盟友，在90 天宽限到期后火速"驱逐"中国海康威视，用中企利益向白宫递交"投名状"。这场持续数月的贸易博弈，最 终以加拿大的彻底妥协收场，背后折射出的是小国在大国角力中的无奈选择。 90天宽限到期，加拿大经济扛不住了 中方的反制警告与全球连锁反应 加拿大（资料图） 更致命的是，特朗普政府在关税豁免90天到期后，威胁"终止所有贸易谈判"。加拿大总理卡尼曾放话"绝不 屈服"，但面对美国财政部长贝森特扬言启动"301调查"、可能加征20亿美元报复性关税的压力，加拿大仅 用两天就宣布取消针对美国的"数字服务税"（原计划对亚马逊、谷歌等科技巨头加征3%税收）。这一系列 操作证明，加拿大所谓"强硬"不过是虚张声势，经济数据的悬殊差距让它不得不低头。 驱逐中企是"政治投名状"，而非安全威胁 加拿大对海康威视的"清退令"充满蹊跷。梅拉妮·乔利声称此举基于"国家安全"，却始终未公布任何具体证 据。这种说辞与2019年美国和加拿大联手打压华为5G如出一辙——当时美方同样以"国家安全"为由，却拿 不出华为设备存在后门的技术证明。 加拿大（资料图） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日提示 豆粕早报 2025-07-02 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，美豆带 动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期回 归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-131，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存69.16万吨，上周50.89万吨，环比增加35.9%，去年同期105.3万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...

一、政策迷雾中的市场困局 最近鲍威尔在欧洲央行论坛上的表态，让全球市场为之一振。这位美联储掌门人暗示年内可能降息，但具体时点却要"看数据"。这种模棱两可的表态， 像极了我们A股市场的走势——看似有方向，实则充满变数。 特朗普的关税大棒、美联储的独立性之争、经济数据的反复无常...这些宏观因素交织在一起，构成了当前市场的"政策迷雾"。大资金们在这种环境下如 履薄冰，既不敢大举进攻，又不愿轻易撤退。于是我们看到指数在狭小空间里反复震荡，个股则上演着"今天涨停明天跌停"的戏码。 二、散户的两难困境 其实股价波动只是表象，背后是机构资金的博弈游戏。传统技术分析告诉我们：洗盘是短暂下跌后快速反弹，出货则是持续阴跌。但问题是，等你能用 肉眼确认时，往往已经错过最佳时机。 这时候就需要借助量化工具来透视市场本质。通过大数据分析交易行为特征，我们可以把模糊的市场语言翻译成清晰的交易信号。 在这样的市场里，散户往往陷入两难：要么被短期波动吓得提前出局，错过后续行情；要么死扛到底，结果发现扛错了对象。就像去年"9.24行情"前， 多少人嘲笑"国家队"越买越亏，结果行情启动时早已被震出局外。 看看这张走势图，是不是似曾相识？股价在 ...