1. 地缘政治风险变化：中东地区以色列与伊朗达成停火协议，地缘政治风险溢价快速消退，削弱了黄金 作为避险资产的吸引力。同时，关税谈判方面传出积极信号，市场风险偏好提升，部分资金从避险资产 转向风险资产，对金价形成压制。 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为779.66元/克，上涨0.26%。 近期黄金价格波动剧烈，多空因素交织。地缘政治风险缓和、货币政策预期分化及经济数据表现不一， 使得金价走势充满不确定性。短期来看，金价可能维持震荡，需重点关注美国就业数据和美联储政策动 向。中长期而言，全球经济不确定性、央行购金需求等因素仍支撑黄金作为避险资产的价值，若美联储 降息预期增强或地缘风险再度升温，金价有望重拾涨势，但也需警惕机构看空观点带来的下行风险。 国际黄金价格报3358.5美元/盎司，下跌0.04%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 2. 货币政策预期分化：美元指数本周连跌，但金价却未能获益。市场定价显示7月美联储降息概率仅 20%，9月升至75%，部分交易员押注两次会议均降息。尽管通胀数据偏高，市场仍维持对美联储货币 政策宽松的预期，但美元疲软与降息预期此次未对金价形成有 ...

李柯称，一旦投产，比亚迪巴西卡马萨里工厂每年可生产15万辆汽车，并计划在大约两年后将产能扩大 至30万辆。该工厂将对从中国运来的半成品车辆进行最终组装，预计不到两个月后将开始商业化生产。 她还表示，公司已有计划未来再次将该工厂产能翻倍，但未透露更多细节。 比亚迪汽车巴西公司高级副总裁亚历山大·巴尔迪(Alexandre Baldy)表示，比亚迪已请求巴西政府在工厂 一期阶段，对其计划组装的汽车套件给予为期12个月的进口关税减免。 凤凰网科技讯 北京时间7月3日，据彭博社报道，比亚迪已搁置了在墨西哥建设大型工厂的计划，原因 是地缘政治局势紧张以及美国总统特朗普的贸易政策所带来的不确定性。 比亚迪（002594）执行副总裁李柯周二在巴西巴伊亚州接受采访时表示，公司仍有意在美洲扩张，但对 于新投资目前暂无时间表。巴伊亚州工厂是比亚迪在亚洲以外的首座工厂。当地时间7月1日，比亚迪在 巴西工厂举行了首车下线仪式。 "地缘政治对汽车产业影响很大，"李柯表示，"现在所有人都在重新思考他们在其他国家的战略。我们 希望等局势更明朗之后再做决定。" 彭博社去年9月报道称，比亚迪曾积极为墨西哥工厂选址，并考察了三个地点，但后来停止 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risk premium in crude oil has rapidly diminished due to the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, leading to a collective decline in the prices of energy chemical products, including synthetic rubber [1][2]. Group 1: Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials for synthetic rubber are butadiene and styrene, both derived from the oil refining process. Butadiene accounts for 95% of the cost structure of polybutadiene rubber, while it constitutes about 70% and styrene about 30% in styrene-butadiene rubber [2]. - Following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, crude oil prices experienced significant volatility, with domestic SC crude oil futures rising approximately 22% [2]. - The announcement of a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to a rapid decline in the crude oil geopolitical risk premium, resulting in a significant weakening of cost support for synthetic rubber [2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - Recent data indicates a slight recovery in the production of polybutadiene rubber, with upstream theoretical production profits rising to 2,101 yuan per ton, an increase of 167 yuan per ton month-on-month [3]. - The operating rate of domestic polybutadiene rubber facilities in East and South China has slightly increased, contributing to a rise in production and capacity utilization [3]. - As of the week ending June 27, the capacity utilization rate for the polybutadiene rubber industry in China was 68.54%, up by 2.22 percentage points, with weekly production reaching 27,500 tons, an increase of 3.34% [3]. Group 3: Demand from Tire Industry - The primary downstream application for polybutadiene rubber is the tire industry, with approximately 2.16 kg used per full steel tire and 0.9 kg per semi-steel tire [4]. - As summer approaches, the automotive market enters a consumption lull, leading to a slowdown in tire procurement by manufacturers. Consequently, the capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 70.40%, while full steel tire manufacturers saw a slight increase of 0.84 percentage points to 62.23% [4]. - The increase in finished tire inventory and the decline in capacity utilization have negatively impacted the demand for polybutadiene rubber [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices surged over 1% on July 2, reaching a recent high of $3358 before closing at $3338, marking two consecutive days of gains [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened market risk aversion following the U.S. Senate's approval of Trump's tax and spending bill [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key indicator for investors regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with economists predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [2] - A weak employment report could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially boosting gold prices, while a strong report may hinder short-term gains [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold formed a double bottom at $3245 and has shown a bullish trend, with a significant focus on the non-farm data impacting short-term price movements [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - As of July 2, U.S. crude oil prices were trading around $67.32 per barrel, with a slight decline of approximately 0.05%, while Brent crude was at $67.09, down about 0.14% [6] - The oil market is currently characterized by cautious balance due to multiple factors, including supply plans from major oil-producing countries and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [6] - The market is influenced by OPEC+'s continuous production increases, which have led to a more relaxed supply environment, alongside recovering demand from Asian manufacturing and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 and the impact of U.S. employment data on monetary policy are critical variables that may determine future oil price movements [6][7] - Technical indicators suggest that while the medium-term trend for oil remains upward, there is a potential for high-level fluctuations, with short-term strategies focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [7]

半年度报告—铅 渊生珠而崖不枯 | [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] | | | 铅：看涨 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 7 月 | 2 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★供应端 有 原生端，品位下滑和外部风险持续，下半年海外铅矿产量或有扰 动；国内原生冶炼产能利用率维持高企，进口矿边际趋紧，后续 TC 有下跌压力，冶炼利润或同步承压，炼厂存在有限的减产可 能性。再生端，下半年替换需求或在旺季下有阶段性改善，但废 电瓶仍将在大部分时间里维持紧缺；再生厂经营环境有所恶化， 今年回收商惜售力度加强、囤货时间提前，而新增再生产能对传 统产能在地域辐射和竞价上的挤占，下半年再生炼厂开工率或维 持高波动，但总体依然承压，此外需关注再生产能压缩的可能性。 色 ★需求端 金 属 需求端，全年终端需求或维持正增速。两轮车和汽车均面临需求 前置释放的问题，消费较为依赖政策推动，锂代铅潜移默化影响 消费格局，储能领域消费增速维持强劲表现，出口需求在比价压 制和反倾销影响下或继续承压。上半年需求表现偏弱，主要是初 端需 ...

由于投资者在美国就业数据公布前保持观望，未敢大举押注，周三国际黄金价格小幅下跌，日内波动幅度 不到20美元，该就业数据预计将进一步揭示美联储未来的政策路径。美元重新获得买盘，扭转隔夜因对美 国关税和特朗普"大而美法案"引发的担忧而导致的跌势，从而限制金价的上行空间。 晚间风险数据预警！ 20.15分：市场目前的关注焦点转向今天稍晚将发布的美国ADP私营部门就业数据，以及周四公布的6月非 农就业数据，这些数据将为劳动力市场状况提供更多线索。鉴于贸易不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、 美元走软以及央行购买量不断增加，黄金仍处于高位。 对于晚间黄金走势的看法！ 黄金今天回撤的空间并不大，也并没有给到我们今天白盘想进场多单的机会，而目前来说，晚间还有ADP 的数据影响，但当前趋势来看的话黄金涨势还是依旧保持稳定，波动虽说对比昨天较小，但触及上方之前 的压力位也并没有大幅度的下跌，那么今天晚间的思路还是看涨！ 而对于今晚的趋势上来说，兴言还是保持低多看涨的趋势不变，而下方的支撑可先关注3325附近的支撑即 可，回撤到位继续跟进多单，上方目标看向3350-55一线！同时若趋势有新的变动兴言也会在实盘中实时给 出！ 所谓一个 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 航运日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 1,883.5 | -21.4 | -1.12% | 44,193.0 | -35.80% | 36,335.0 | -10.23% | | EC2510 | 1,367.9 | -15.9 | -1.15% | 14,562.0 | -32.79% | 31,302.0 | -0.65% | | EC2512 | 1,528.0 | -10.0 | -0.65% | 2,984.0 | -14.03% | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in Germany's machinery and equipment manufacturing orders, driven by a surge in demand from the Eurozone, with a year-on-year growth of 9% in May [1] - Domestic orders in Germany grew by 2% year-on-year in May, while foreign orders saw a more substantial increase of 12%, indicating a strong recovery in the Eurozone [1] - The VDMA reported that cumulative orders for the first five months of 2025 increased by 3% year-on-year, with foreign business growing by 4% and domestic orders remaining stable [1] Group 2 - There is a notable divergence between domestic and foreign demand, with total machinery orders in Germany increasing by 2% year-on-year from March to May, but domestic orders declining by 1% while foreign orders grew by 4% [1] - VDMA's chief economist Johannes Gernandt emphasized that the low base from May of the previous year significantly contributed to the pronounced year-on-year growth, while global uncertainties continue to pose challenges for investment decisions [2] - Despite strong demand from the Eurozone, orders from non-Eurozone countries have been weak, with a reported decline of 4.4% in exports to the U.S. and a 12.2% drop in exports to China in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构不佳，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化，后期地缘溢价会进一步回落。在经历前期大幅回落以后，本周油市步 ...