5 . 1 0 - 5 . 1 6 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见"系列会议第30期 《关税的"终局" 》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第60期 《贸易冲突的"终局"？——关税"压力测试"系列之七 》 3、 "洞见"系列会议第61期 《金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 —— 关税"压力测试"系列之六 》 1、 热点思考 | 金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 ——关税"压力测试"系列之六 2、 热点思考 | 贸易冲突的"终局"？——关税"压力测试"系列之七 3、 热点思考｜中国制造"难替代性"？ 4、 热点思考 | 增量政策，如何"审时度势"？ 1、 如何理解货币政策的"灵活把握"？——2025年一季度货币政策执行报告解读 2、 4月通胀：关税冲击背后的积极表现 3、 海外高频 | 美英达成贸易协议，联储例会"静观其变" 4、 宏观月报 | 内外博弈下的政策"变局"？——宏观"月月谈"系列之六 5、 国内高频｜港口货物吞吐量明显回升 6、 政策高频 | 稳股市，稳楼市，强化对民企、科创企业的金融支持 7、 为何M2增速跳升 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the automotive industry, particularly the electric vehicle (EV) and intelligent driving sectors, as well as the automotive parts industry in regions like Anhui and Changzhou [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Electric Vehicles and Intelligent Driving - Top choice for investment in the EV and intelligent driving sectors is Topology, with Horizon as the preferred choice for intelligent incremental components, followed by Desay and Huayang [1][2]. - Jianghuai Automobile's new model S800 is expected to launch at the end of May 2025, with a conservative monthly sales estimate of 1,000 units, potentially reaching 2,000-3,000 units in stable conditions [1][4]. Automotive Parts Industry - The automotive parts sector is experiencing structural changes, with a focus on companies showing performance inflection points and those with low valuations, recommending companies like Xiangyu and Jifeng [2][3]. - Ankai Bus is entering a profit release phase, targeting a revenue of approximately 3 billion yuan for the year, reflecting the competitive landscape in the bus industry [2][10]. Company-Specific Insights - Berteli is projected to see a revenue increase of about 30% in 2025, with significant growth in EPB (30%), line control (40%), and lightweight components (70-80%) [1][9]. - Newyu is transforming its customer base, gaining orders from major clients like Geely and North American EV customers, with expected revenue from its Serbia factory of 400-500 million yuan this year [2][11]. - Newquan is expected to achieve a revenue of over 17 billion yuan in 2025, with Chery and Tesla as its largest clients [2][12]. Regional Developments - The Anhui region is seeing rapid development in the robotics industry, with companies like Anhui Heli and Aifert collaborating closely with Huawei to advance industrial automation [1][5][6]. - Companies like Jujie and Ruiyu are focusing on welding automation and industrial robot applications, showcasing strong business synergies [1][7]. Future Projections - Jianghuai's partnership with Huawei involves significant investment, with a total expected investment reaching 10 billion yuan, aiming for breakeven by 2027 [1][4]. - Berteli's new product launches include EMB products expected to enter mass production in 2026, with a focus on key components in the robotics sector [1][9]. Additional Important Information - The competitive landscape in the bus market is intense, with Ankai targeting Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East for exports [2][10]. - Newyu's strategic focus on high-value automotive lighting products is expected to enhance its market position, particularly in the North American market [2][11]. - Newquan's acquisition of Wuhu Lichi is aimed at consolidating its market position and driving business growth [2][12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the automotive industry and specific company strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations in prices and inventory levels during the week of May 16, with average prices ranging from 78,155 to 78,905 CNY per ton, and macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1] Price and Inventory Summary - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price fluctuated between 78,155 CNY/ton and 78,905 CNY/ton during the week, with a mid-week peak followed by a decline [1] - LME inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,400 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 27,400 tons to 108,100 tons [1] - Domestic social inventory rose by 8,900 tons to 132,000 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 68,800 tons [1] Macroeconomic Factors - A temporary joint statement was issued by China and the U.S., with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on China and China maintaining a 10% tariff on the U.S. [1] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with Japan and the Eurozone, leading to increased market risk sentiment, with U.S. stocks and the dollar rebounding [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday [1] - In April, China's social financing increased by 1.16 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans of 280 billion CNY, and M2-M1 spread widening [1] Mining and Trade Activity - Copper concentrate transaction activity increased, with frequent bidding activities from traders and smelters [1] - The Bisha project bidding results were released, with processing fees stabilizing around -40 USD, and this week's TC price reported at -43.05 USD/ton, slightly down from last week [1] - April copper concentrate imports reached a historical high, but future spot transactions are expected to be sluggish, with TC prices remaining low [1] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Imported copper arrivals slightly increased, while domestic copper arrivals were lower [1] - As copper prices rise, the willingness to sell scrap copper increases, leading to a widening gap between refined and scrap copper prices [1] Consumption Trends - Due to May delivery, monthly differences, and high copper prices, downstream purchasing has been cautious, with demand not being stimulated and only essential purchases being made, resulting in a slight increase in domestic inventory [1] Strategy Outlook - The copper market is viewed as neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 75,000 CNY/ton to 79,500 CNY/ton in the coming week [1] - Arbitrage activities are on hold, with options positioned as short put at 74,000 CNY/ton [1]

连日来，经济观察报联系新能源、新材料、新能源汽车等代表 行业央企后发现，出现"供需失衡、增量不增效"问题的央企并 非孤例。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 供需失衡、增量不增效，这是刘冰汇报工作时提到的两个词。他是一家新材料央企战略性新兴产业 （下称"战新"）产业项目负责人。 2025年以来，刘冰所在的团队，在战新产业领域的投入力度明显加大，这和国资委的考核导向调 整相关，更和产业、行业发展相关。 另一家建筑央企碰到了类似的问题。 该建筑央企人士复盘了部分战新项目，认为目前大多还处在大额资本投入期或者产出早期，广泛收 入机会的涌现尚待时日，成规模的效益增长还需一段时日。 连日来，经济观察报联系新能源、新材料、新能源汽车等代表行业央企后发现，出现"供需失衡、 增量不增效"问题的央企并非孤例。 一名国资人士表示，2025年以来，国资监管部门重点布局了新能源汽车、新能源、新材料等产 业。以新材料为例，其下一步新兴产业的发展直接关系到我国制造业的转型升级，对实现产业链自 主可控，打破"卡脖子"难题意义重大。 按照国务院国资委的部署，央企战新产业投入倍增计划，须在2025年落地生效。 国资委对央企在新兴产业的布局也提出了 ...

供需失衡、增量不增效，这是刘冰汇报工作时提到的两个词。他是一家新材料央企战略性新兴产业（下称"战新"）产业项目负责人。 2025年以来，刘冰所在的团队，在战新产业领域的投入力度明显加大，这和国资委的考核导向调整相关，更和产业、行业发展相关。 另一家建筑央企碰到了类似的问题。 该建筑央企人士复盘了部分战新项目，认为目前大多还处在大额资本投入期或者产出早期，广泛收入机会的涌现尚待时日，成规模的效益增长还需一段时 日。 连日来，经济观察报联系新能源、新材料、新能源汽车等代表行业央企后发现，出现"供需失衡、增量不增效"问题的央企并非孤例。 一名国资人士表示，2025年以来，国资监管部门重点布局了新能源汽车、新能源、新材料等产业。以新材料为例，其下一步新兴产业的发展直接关系到我国 制造业的转型升级，对实现产业链自主可控，打破"卡脖子"难题意义重大。 国资委对央企在新兴产业的布局也提出了明确的量化目标，例如要求到2025年，央企在战新产业收入占比要达到35%。 随着战新产业发展的逐步推进，上述国资人士在调研过程中发现，个别央企的新材料产品研发成功后，市场需求不及预期，产能一度过剩。 他说："相关央企在电子化学品等高端化工 ...

5 . 1 0 - 5 . 1 6 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见"系列会议第30期 《关税的"终局" 》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第60期 《贸易冲突的"终局"？——关税"压力测试"系列之七 》 3、 "洞见"系列会议第61期 《金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 —— 关税"压力测试"系列之六 》 热点思考 | 金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 ——关税"压力测试"系列之 热点思考 2025.5.11 2025年，美联储还能降息吗？ 热点思考 2025.5.12 1 六 2 热点思考 | 贸易冲突的"终局"？——关税"压力测试"系列之七 5月8日，美国宣布与英国达成《经济繁荣协议》。如何看待其中的增量信息，未来贸易谈判或将如何演绎？ 3 热点思考 ｜ 中国制造"难替代性" ？ 热点思考 2025.5.14 中美关税形势缓和，一定程度上印证了中国制造"难替代性"。哪些行业"难替代性"更强？未来如何展望？ 1、 热点思考 | 金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 ——关税"压力测试"系列之六 2、 热点思考 | 贸易冲 ...

文/中银证券全球首席经济学家 管涛 在外部环境不确定性挑战和新旧动能转换压力的背景下，5月7日，中国出 台了一揽子稳市场稳预期的金融增量政策（下称" 5·0 7"增量政策）。与去 年9月2 4日出台的一揽子金融增量政策（下称" 9·24"增量政策）相比，当 前国内金融市场反应显得较为克制。 增量政策范围广、措施多、落地快 当时，国新办在股市开盘前的九点安排了新闻发布会，会上宣布了一揽子金融增量政策。其中：降息20个基点、降准0.5 个百分点，其力度都是超常规的；创设稳股市的两项结构性货币政策工具，显示央行用实际行动支持资产价格稳定，这 也大大出乎了市场意料。 两天之后9月26日的政治局会议才揭晓了"5·07"增量政策出台的背景和思路。会议指出，当前经济运行出现一些新的情况 和问题。要全面客观冷静看待当前经济形势，正视困难、坚定信心，切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感。要抓住 重点、主动作为，有效落实存量政策，加力推出增量政策。会议强调，要降低存款准备金率，实施有力度的降息；要促 进房地产市场止跌回稳；要努力提振资本市场。 国内金融市场尤其是A股市场反响积极。去年9月24日~10月8日，上证综指实现"六连涨" ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi Energy Co., Ltd. has strengthened its operational management and achieved significant improvements in key performance indicators through a dual approach of "stock optimization + incremental cultivation," leading to a new pattern of high-quality development [1][3] Group 1: Company Strategy and Management - The company focuses on efficiency and prioritizes its responsibility for power supply, accelerating its development strategy of "focusing on the main power business with multi-energy complementary" [1] - Guangxi Energy has implemented lean management, promoted digital transformation, and optimized its industrial layout to enhance operational quality [1] - Future plans include improving management effectiveness, accelerating major project construction, and revitalizing loss-making enterprises to support the strategic goal of building a million-kilowatt clean energy base in eastern Guangxi [1] Group 2: Performance and Growth - As of now, the proportion of new energy installed capacity has increased from 1.27% at the end of 2023 to 31.87%, marking a significant step in energy structure transformation [3] - The company has successfully connected its first offshore wind power project and several distributed photovoltaic projects to the grid, with onshore wind power and pumped storage projects progressing as scheduled [3] - The meeting included a live video format with interactive sessions, addressing investor concerns regarding project construction, market and electricity price policy adjustments, and shareholder returns [3]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Positive" for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and regional banks [3][40]. Core Views - Incremental policies are stabilizing market expectations, enhancing the allocation value of the banking sector. The banking sector remains attractive as a dividend asset under a moderately loose monetary policy environment [5][36]. - Recommended stocks include: CITIC Bank (Increase), China Merchants Bank (Buy), Chongqing Bank (Increase), and Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank (Buy) [3][38]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index saw weekly changes of 1.92% and 2.00%, respectively. The Shenwan Banking Index increased by 3.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.88 percentage points, ranking 4th among Shenwan's primary industries [12][11]. - The performance of various banking sectors was as follows: state-owned banks increased by 1.75%, joint-stock banks by 5.33%, city commercial banks by 3.80%, and rural commercial banks by 3.47% [12][11]. Data Tracking - As of May 9, 2025, the banking sector's PB-LF valuation was 0.67 times, at the 74.10 percentile level over the past five years. The median dividend yield for individual stocks was 4.53%, exceeding the 10-year government bond yield by 2.90 percentage points [4][21]. - The total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.70%. The loan and deposit balances of Chinese banks were 258.36 trillion yuan and 293.94 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 7.73% and 7.99% [4][34]. Industry Dynamics - The People's Bank of China released the "2025 Q1 Monetary Policy Implementation Report," emphasizing the need for macroeconomic stability and the implementation of moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery [33][35]. - A comprehensive financial policy package was announced by the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize the market and expectations, providing strong financial support for economic recovery [36][37].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 摘要 4 月下旬开启的政策窗口期，释放出哪些 "新" 信号？随着关税谈判的推进，增量政策或如何"因时因 势"推出？本文结合历史经验与当下经济形势展开剖析，可供参考。 政策窗口期的"新"信号？"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"稳就业稳经济、稳市场稳预期" 4月中央政治局在下旬提前召开，讨论扩内需、促消费、稳定就业等方面政策。 本次会议对外部风险保 持高度警惕，首次采用"国际经贸斗争"表述，内部聚焦高质量发展，强调"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。政策工具箱呈现灵活性与超常规双重特征，强调"根据形势变化及时 推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节"。 4月中央政治局会议后，国新办围绕稳就业、稳市场两度召开发布会，阐释政策部署执行细节。 4月28日 发布会以稳就业为核心，重点阐释三方面政策执行情况。一是稳内需与稳就业协同推进。消费以"以旧换 新"补贴、育儿补贴制度及文旅等服务消费金融支持为重点。二是多维度拓展就业空间，以高校毕业生、 农民工、困难人员为保障重点。三是强化民营经济支持，加大科技、绿色等领域信贷投放，完善民企融 资信用信息共享平台等。 5月7日的发 ...