另一个因素是AI。AI的普及在全球范围内已经取得巨大进展，这是一个不容忽视的重大机遇。世界经济论坛每季度或每年都 会对首席经济学家进行调查，最新一期首席经济学家调查结果显示，大约40%的首席经济学家预计未来5到10年AI可能会推动 全球经济增长5%，大约32%受访者预计将推动全球经济增长5%至10%。 证券时报记者：当前全球经济面临通胀压力、供应链重构、地缘冲突等多重挑战，您认为2025年全球经济复苏的核心驱动力是 什么？ 萨迪娅·扎希迪： 人们很容易只关注风险，而忽视经济如何复苏。我认为，推动全球经济复苏的其中一个因素是贸易关系的重 建。世界上某一个地区如果外贸受到冲击，某种程度上可能会为新兴市场和发展中经济体创造机遇，促使各国开始重新思考彼 此之间的贸易关系。可以看到，各国制定双边贸易协定、区域贸易协定，以及全球南方国家之间的跨境投资的兴趣正在不断上 升。 当前，全球经济形势不断变化，各项挑战相互交织。与此同时，人工智能（AI）等带来的技术变革层出不穷，变局之中亦有 机遇。在此背景下召开的世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（以下简称"2025夏季达沃斯论坛"）聚焦重要的新兴市场，并重 点关注中国，探讨新时代 ...

除工业外，德国服务业虽然在6月继续萎缩，但收缩速度已经明显放缓。据路透社23日报道，德国服务 业商业活动改善程度超出预期，6月份PMI初值升至49.4（5月为47.1）。 HCOB首席经济学家总结 道："德国有可能打破持续两年的经济增长曲线时断时续的发展模式——一个季度正增长，随后一个季 度收缩。" 【环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木】德国6月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）初值意外恢复增长，引发全球 金融机构和专家纷纷猜测，德国制造业或将迎来转机。根据标普全球周一公布的最新调查报告，德国6 月PMI初值从5月份的48.5升至50.4。德国新闻电视台23日称，这一数字突破了50的荣枯分界线，创下34 个月以来的最高水平。许多参加调查的德国企业称，海外业务稳步增长，德国国内需求有所增强。 另据英国《金融时报》23日报道，其他指标也预示着德国经济正在改善，本月投资者信心有所上升，部 分原因是德国新政府有望大幅增加政府支出。 "德国制造业可能终于迎来转机。"该调查的发起机构汉堡商业银行（HCOB）首席经济学家德拉鲁比亚 表示，但工业PMI"仍略微处于衰退区间"。 德国联邦统计局的最新数据也显示德国制造业订单需求有起色。德国 ...

Group 1: Recent Market Volatility - Global stock markets have shown alternating rises and falls, with accelerated sector rotation since June 2025 [2] - A-shares are fluctuating between 3200-3500 points, with growth stocks like new energy and semiconductors experiencing increased volatility, while defensive sectors like banks and consumer goods remain stable [2] - The Nasdaq index has seen daily fluctuations exceeding 2% due to tech stock earnings reports, with Federal Reserve policy expectations being a focal point [2][3] Group 2: Core Reasons for Market Fluctuations - Uncertainty in global economic recovery is evident, with the U.S. experiencing easing inflation pressures but volatile employment data, leading to debates on the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][5] - European economies face recession risks due to fluctuating energy prices and weak manufacturing [5] - China's economic recovery is mixed, with consumer and investment rebounds but ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector affecting market confidence [6][7] Group 3: Policy Adjustments and Regulatory Changes - The Federal Reserve's June 2025 FOMC meeting signaled a hawkish stance, cooling rate cut expectations and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, which suppresses risk assets [8] - In China, the A-share market is influenced by the "New National Nine Articles," which strengthen dividend requirements for listed companies, putting pressure on some high-valuation growth stocks [9][10] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment - Ongoing disruptions in energy and food supply chains due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are exacerbating global inflation expectations [11][12] - The U.S.-China relationship impacts foreign investment risk appetite in A-shares, with rising investor caution reflected in the VIX index [12] Group 5: Fund Flows and Institutional Adjustments - Foreign capital inflows into A-shares have slowed, with significant net outflows on certain trading days [13] - Institutional investors are reducing holdings in high-valuation sectors, shifting towards low-valuation, high-dividend assets [13] Group 6: Divergence in Corporate Earnings Expectations - Some AI and semiconductor companies are reporting earnings below expectations, putting pressure on the Nasdaq index [14] - Domestic consumption recovery is weak, with sectors like liquor and home appliances experiencing slowed growth [14] Group 7: Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets - Diversification is recommended to mitigate risks associated with single assets, including a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds [16] - Focus on high-dividend, low-valuation assets such as banks and utilities is advised for conservative investors [16] - Implementing a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging in index funds, can help smooth market volatility [17][18] - Maintaining a cash reserve of 30%-50% during high uncertainty allows for flexibility in investment opportunities [19] - A long-term perspective is crucial to avoid emotional trading and capitalize on the inherent value of quality assets [20] Group 8: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The stock market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by monetary policy decisions, including potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and further easing in China [20]

随着暑期消费旺季来临，多地陆续出台一系列促消费惠民生措施。其中，发放消费券成为重要举措。 例如，自6月25日起，安徽省马鞍山市经开区发放新一轮汽车消费券，总额度为150万元，在消费时可叠 加国家、省以旧换新相关政策；为降低市民装修成本，激发改善型住房需求，河南省郑州市自6月23日 起发放第一批装修消费券；为激发餐饮行业的消费活力，山东省青岛市自6月18日至6月30日发放500万 元餐饮消费券；湖北省举办的"乐购湖北616三好节"将联动美团平台发放逾3000万元消费券，涵盖餐 饮、住宿等消费领域…… 值得关注的是，近期，托育等新型消费券受到关注，多地将"真金白银"的补贴投向增长潜力较大的服务 领域。 例如，为进一步减轻0—3岁婴幼儿家庭托育服务费用，江西省自6月18日至6月30日发放第一批托育服务 消费券，同时明确后续批次的发放时间，即如果当月已核销，次月1日将自动为符合条件的用户发放； 海南省自6月19日起发放首批托育消费券，每月最高补贴600元，后续批次的消费券每月1日发放。 "本轮各地消费券的设计紧扣民生需求和产业短板，体现精准滴灌与多元协同。"中国信息协会常务理 事、国研新经济研究院院长朱克力在接受《证 ...

Phillips 66 (PSX) 2025 Conference June 24, 2025 10:55 AM ET Speaker0 So welcome Mark Weisher, chairman and CEO of Phillips sixty six. Mark has been CEO since 02/2022, and he's, I believe, a lifer with the company back to Philips Petroleum and inclusive of his time at CPChem where he had several positions and ultimately ran CPChem prior to taking the helm of Philips as he's sick. So, Mark, thanks very much for joining us today. Speaker1 John, thanks for having us here. Speaker0 So let's start with probably t ...

中国资产重估与 PB 趋势性上升 20250624 摘要 中国经济发展模式转型，不再依赖债务驱动的资本开支，转向新消费领 域，预示着工业化后期、债务周期和地产周期趋于结束，基建和资本支 出周期发生变化。宏观层面表现为约束投资、扩大消费、减少储蓄和扩 大进口。 中国传统行业将进入头部化过程，减少过度竞争，企业、个人及政府部 门均在约束开支，提升资本回报率（ROE）和自由现金流，从而驱动中 国资产价格系统性上移，与当前基于过度竞争的定价模式形成对比。 逆全球化导致资本从美国流出，加剧美债收益率上升，美元资产泡沫消 除，长期贬值压力增大。美国经济周期与其他经济体脱钩，导致美元和 美债市场出现异常波动，中期资本流转面临问题。 人民币在离岸市场呈现远期升值趋势，并非因中国经济好转，而是美元 问题所致。加速结汇是被动升值，未来两年美元预计持续走弱，即使采 取宽松政策也难以解决根本问题，将进一步推动美元贬值。 国际资本正从流入美国转向流出，非美国家成为新的资金吸引地，欧洲 尤为突出。只要没有重大系统性崩溃事件，美股保持稳定，资金外逃趋 势将继续削弱美元信用，加速其贬值进程。 Q&A 全球资本流动呈现向非美经济体转移趋势，特 ...

新华财经北京6月24日电 美联储美联储主席鲍威尔将于今日北京时间22:00在众议院金融服务委员会发 表证词。鉴于白宫方面持续施加的大幅降息政治压力，以及关税和地缘政治事件引发的不确定性再次升 温，市场交易员正密切关注美联储政策立场的动向。 欧元区经济数据呈现微弱改善。德国6月IFO商业景气指数升至88.4，商业预期指数跃升至90.7，数据对 汇价影响有限。欧元区PMI显示制造业仍处收缩区间，服务业勉强站上荣枯线，经济复苏动能不足。 英镑 美国银行外汇策略师表示，英镑在经历了又一个疲软的6月表现后，应该会恢复对欧元的上涨。英镑在 近年来的6月通常都会对欧元下跌。仅从季节性表现来看，欧元对英镑在7月及以后的今年剩余时间里将 表现不佳。 图为：截至北京时间19:12 主要货币对不同时间周期波动对比来源：新华财经 美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部的分歧愈发明显，特朗普任命的理事米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）均表态支持最早在7月份实施宽松政策。 这一立场与鲍威尔近期所传达的"保持耐心"信号相悖，暗示委员会内部不和正在加剧。安联（Allian ...

Core Insights - The "618 Home Decoration Carnival and the Third Furniture Factory Direct Purchase Fair" held at Yifeng International Times Square successfully attracted over 30,000 visitors, marking it as a significant consumer event in the region and injecting strong momentum into the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Visitor and Sales Growth - The event saw a total visitor count exceeding 30,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% [3]. - The participation of over 70 domestic and international brands in the home decoration industry contributed to an overall sales growth of nearly 10% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Direct Supply and Consumer Benefits - The core attraction of the event was the "Direct Purchase from Manufacturers" model, which included significant giveaways such as "500 luxury gifts for orders" and "200,000 shopping cards for joint orders" [5]. - The total value of subsidies and gifts distributed during the event reached several hundred thousand yuan, aimed at enhancing consumer engagement and facilitating home decoration purchases [5]. Group 3: Interactive Engagement and Prizes - The "Consumer Blind Box" segment was particularly popular, generating excitement among attendees [7]. - A highlight of the event was the public drawing for a "10,000 yuan shopping exemption prize," which was conducted under fair supervision, with multiple lucky consumers winning [7]. Group 4: Multi-Industry Collaboration - Yifeng Square, with a total area of 120,000 square meters, has established a commercial ecosystem that integrates home decoration materials, tea culture, food, and antiques, creating a "one-stop" shopping experience with over 700 merchants [10]. Group 5: Future Development and Quality Growth - By 2025, the mall plans to enhance operations by integrating online live streaming with offline experiences, aiming to host over 30 promotional events and collaborate with community and cross-industry resources [11]. - The mall is actively implementing national policies to promote consumption, including "old-for-new" subsidy programs for home appliances and furniture, with hundreds of thousands of yuan allocated for these initiatives [11]. Group 6: Commitment to Integrity and Brand Development - The mall aims to optimize the "Integrity Business Demonstration Circle" and plans to introduce over 20 new city-first brands to enhance the consumer experience [14]. - The successful execution of this carnival demonstrates Yifeng's strong resource integration and operational capabilities, serving as a model for market recovery and contributing to regional economic growth [14].

Group 1 - The retail sales of home appliance products are expected to maintain double-digit growth for eight consecutive months from September 2024 to April 2025, reflecting a trend of consumption recovery and demand changes in the market [1][3] - Bosch Comfort Technology opened its first i-Hybrid Comfort System flagship store in Shanghai, symbolizing multinational companies increasing their investments in China [1] - The rapid development of the heat pump market is attributed to rising consumer spending levels and the guidance of national "dual carbon" policies, which provide subsidies and incentives for real estate developers using heat pumps and green energy solutions [1][2] Group 2 - There is a notable increase in high-end consumer groups in China, leading to the establishment of a comfort home experience center in Shanghai, which drives the upgrade of HVAC product consumption in the region [2] - The trend of consumption stratification in China is evident, with a growing share of designers in the interior decoration field, reflecting a more rational approach to high-end consumption where consumers are willing to pay for design services and environmentally friendly materials [2] - Despite a contraction in project volume due to the real estate downturn, Bosch Comfort Technology achieved double-digit retail growth last year and maintained this growth in the first five months of this year, with plans to add over 300 new stores [2][3] Group 3 - The offline store experience is crucial for home brands, especially in high-end consumption, as it enhances customer engagement and increases the likelihood of sales [3] - In the first five months of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, indicating a recovery in the domestic consumption market [3] - The effectiveness of the trade-in program is evident, with over 34 million consumers participating in the program from January to April this year, purchasing over 51 million units of 12 categories of home appliances, generating sales of 174.5 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in export values despite a decline in import values in recent months [7][8]. Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, China's engineering machinery import and export trade amounted to $5.238 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with imports at $214 million (down 0.74%) and exports at $5.024 billion (up 8.51%) [1]. - In April 2025, the trade total was $5.377 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, with imports at $226 million (down 2.2%) and exports at $5.152 billion (up 12.7%) [2]. - For March 2025, the trade value was $5.167 billion, reflecting a 7.53% year-on-year growth, with imports at $255 million (down 5.85%) and exports at $4.912 billion (up 8.33%) [2]. - The cumulative trade from January to May 2025 reached $24.185 billion, an 8.49% increase year-on-year, with imports totaling $1.09 billion (down 0.86%) and exports at $23.095 billion (up 8.98%) [3]. - From January to April 2025, the trade value was $18.947 billion, an 8.51% increase year-on-year, with imports at $877 million (down 0.86%) and exports at $18.07 billion (up 9.01%) [4]. Export Performance - In April 2025, the export value was 36.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, while the cumulative export from January to April was 129.738 billion yuan, up 10.3% [5]. - In March 2025, the export value was 35.231 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.51% year-on-year increase, with the first quarter's total exports at 92.787 billion yuan, up 8.99% [6]. - The export value for January 2025 was 34.001 billion yuan, a 16.8% increase year-on-year, while February saw a decline to 23.558 billion yuan, down 1.27% [6]. Market Dynamics - The engineering machinery industry is expected to see improved conditions, with a notable increase in demand and a positive outlook for the coming months [9][10].