二、数据与现实的撕裂 房价的下跌是由于有人故意唱衰造成的吗？ 这是冬冬冬的第813篇原创文章 内容提要 从九十年代的购房热潮到如今的观望情绪，房价走势牵动人心。城镇化率逼近70%、年轻人购房意愿下 降、政策调控摇摆不定……这些信号究竟预示着什么？本文拆解数据背后的真相，探讨房子作为"投资 品"还是"生活刚需"的本质矛盾，为普通人提供理性应对的思考方向。 一、记忆里的繁荣，现实中的迷茫 九十年代的街头，推土机轰鸣声中，新楼盘如春笋般生长。那时买房是进城落户的"通行证"，是抓住时 代红利的象征。而如今，菜场里的张大妈忧心忡忡："房价要跌了！"曾经贴满街角的房产广告，如今只 剩零星几张"清盘特价"。 繁荣与冷清的对比，折射出楼市的巨大转向。唱衰声此起彼伏的背后，是城镇化接近瓶颈的客观现实， 还是利益博弈的舆论操弄？普通人的困惑在于：若房子不再是"稳赚不赔"的资产，未来的路该怎么走？ 有专家搬出九十年代的城镇化模型，预言房价将再涨20%。然而，当年的人口红利、棚改政策早已不再 ——如今的年轻人更愿租房，乡村振兴和远程办公稀释了城市吸引力。开发商鼓吹"低首付高杠杆"，但 首付降低意味着月供增加，同样让普通家庭举步维艰。 ...

惠誉：美国实际房价升值与可持续价格趋势相一致。 ...

营口和锦州也好不到哪儿去。这俩东北城市，经济靠传统工业，年轻人却跑得比风还快。2024年，营口新房库存高达28个月，锦州也不遑多让，卖一套房比 登天还难。知乎网友吐槽："锦州房子，卖家恨不得送装修还倒贴家电！"人口流失、产业疲软，房价不跌才怪！ 安顺和玉林，西南小城的代表，日子也不好过。安顺旅游业火过一阵，但楼市却冷得像冰窖，2024年新房成交量同比跌30%。玉林更惨，经济增速垫底，年 轻人全往广州、深圳跑，房子空置率高得像鬼城。网友笑称："玉林买房？得先问问有没有邻居！"供过于求，房价想不跌都难。 这五个城市房价"滑坡"，核心原因是供需失衡的老剧本。过去十年，开发商跟打了鸡血似的盖房，地方政府靠卖地赚得盆满钵满。可现在，人口缩水、需求 崩盘，房子却越盖越多。2024年，国家统计局数据显示，全国新房库存达7.38亿平米，鹤岗、营口这些城市更是"重灾区"。知乎大V分析："库存够卖三年， 房价不跌才见鬼！" 政策也在"补刀"。2020年"三红线"政策让开发商资金链断裂，2024年房贷利率虽降到4.5%，但买家信心早崩了。金曼 Sachs预测，2025年全国房价跌幅 4%-6%，中小城市跌幅可能超10%。这五个城市 ...

结合他们的见解以及当前的市场形势，可以概括出影响未来房价的几个重要因素，这些因素也能够帮助我们判断五年后那套100万元房产的价值。 首先，供求关系影响深远。过去的房地产过度开发导致当前库存积压严重，尤其是在三四线城市，空置房产的问题更为突出。随着人口负增长的趋势明确， 许多房产在市场上滞留一两年，降价仍无人问津。如果住房需求未能有效提升，而供给持续过剩，那么100万元的房子可能会面临进一步贬值的风险。 在分析当前房地产市场的状况时，我们不妨先来看看几组令人震惊的数据。2020年，全国新建楼盘的总面积达到22亿平方米，而预计到2024年，这一数字将 缩水至仅6亿多平方米，意味着新建面积减少超过60%。与此同时，新房销售面积也经历了巨大的滑坡，从2020年的18亿平方米骤降至去年的5亿平方米，降 幅接近60%。这些触目惊心的数字，不仅揭示了公众对市场的信心不足，亦为楼市的未来前景蒙上了一层厚重的阴影。 现如今，许多人尤为关注的是如何避免房地产市场的贬值，尤其是那些打算购房的人，他们亟需寻找可以保值甚至增值的房产。那么，假设目前价值100万 元的房子，五年后是否能够保值？未来的价值又会是多少呢？这一问题让不少人感到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has experienced a significant downturn since 2021, with prices in lower-tier cities halving and first-tier cities returning to 2016 levels, despite government efforts to stabilize the market through various policies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The initial surge in housing prices led to a speculative buying frenzy, with many individuals borrowing to purchase properties, resulting in skyrocketing prices even in remote areas [1]. - By 2021, the market began to decline, with second and third-tier cities seeing price drops of around 50%, and first-tier cities reverting to previous price levels [1]. - The government has implemented measures such as lowering down payment ratios, reducing loan interest rates, and offering tax incentives to stimulate market recovery [1]. Group 2: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - Many real estate companies are facing severe financial difficulties and high debt pressures, leading to a growing sense of caution among potential buyers [3]. - The industry is expected to undergo a significant shakeout, with financially strained companies likely to exit the market, while larger firms with stable finances may continue to thrive [5]. Group 3: Taxation and Market Pressure - The introduction of property taxes and landlord taxes in some cities poses a significant burden on homeowners, particularly those with multiple properties, as these taxes can reach up to 20% [6]. - The rental market is under increasing pressure, making it nearly impossible for most homeowners outside major cities to sustain their properties through rental income [6]. Group 4: Wealth Distribution and Policy Implications - The concentration of wealth in real estate has led to high vacancy rates among affluent families, while a significant portion of the population struggles to afford housing [10]. - Government policies aimed at promoting common prosperity and reducing wealth inequality include inheritance taxes on property sales, which could significantly impact high-net-worth families [11]. - These measures are intended to facilitate a more equitable distribution of wealth, although they may cause short-term challenges in the market [11].

Group 1 - Housing costs in Germany have become a significant burden, with expenditures on rent or home maintenance accounting for 24.5% of disposable income, which is 5.3 percentage points higher than the EU average [1] - A family in Munich has seen their monthly housing expenses rise from under 900 euros to 1600 euros, now representing 25% of their income, despite an increase in earnings [1] - A single mother in Berlin spends over 40% of her income on rent, with 12% of families facing similar burdens, leading many to relocate or seek government housing subsidies [2] Group 2 - Over 52.8% of Germans are renters, and rising rents have increased the desire to purchase homes, yet average property prices are 3173 euros per square meter, with some cities exceeding 5000 euros per square meter [2] - A report predicts that apartment prices in Germany will rise by an average of 0.4% annually until 2035, driven by high demand in areas with significant immigration and job opportunities [2] - Criticism has been directed at the German government for high housing expenditure relative to income, with suggestions for implementing a national rent cap and increasing the proportion of affordable housing [3]

RealEstate网站5月9日报道，最新调查显示，澳洲民众对房地产市场的信心在连续 3个季度下跌后出现 大幅反弹。与此同时，澳洲最大银行之一预测利率将回归至疫 情时期水平。 周五发布的NABResidential Property Index指出，今年3月，该指数"大幅上涨至 远超平均水平的40点， 此前连续3个季度呈下降趋势"。 预计未来12个月内该指数将 达到51点，未来两年将达到54点。 澳洲国民银行（NAB）首席经济学家Sally Auld预计，利率下调将支撑经济增长， 澳洲经济将实现'软着 陆'。 今年下半年的通胀率将稳定在澳联储目标区间的中间水 平，失业率将保持在4.5%以下。 （图片来源：RealEstate） "也就是说，全球经济正面临逆风，全球增长放缓可能对澳洲经济增长产生负面影 响，同时也会起到抑 制通胀的作用。这意味着澳联储需要更快实现利率正常化，并 进一步降低利率以提供额外支持。" "因此，我们现在预计澳联储将在8月前将现金利率降至3.1%，并在2026年初降至 2.6%。" （图片来源：RealEstate） 最新调查发现，未来12个月的房价增长预期几乎翻了一番，达到2.3%（此前 ...

Policy Changes - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations due to a series of favorable policies, including relaxed purchase and sale restrictions, historical lows in mortgage rates, and reduced down payment requirements [1] - Major cities have implemented policies such as "recognizing the house, not the loan," which were previously unimaginable [1] Market Response - Despite the favorable policies, the market remains unresponsive, with declining sales figures and increasing inventory levels [1] - Major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden are facing severe financial difficulties, leading to project delays and an increase in unfinished buildings [1] Housing Supply and Demand - The number of unsold homes in China is approaching 120 million, sufficient to accommodate 300 to 400 million people, while 14 million new homes are added to the market annually, indicating a supply surplus [5] - Urbanization rates are nearing 70%, and demographic trends such as aging populations and declining birth rates are expected to further impact housing demand [5] Future Price Predictions - Predictions suggest that housing prices in first-tier cities will stabilize and align more closely with income levels, avoiding significant increases or decreases [6] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities may experience a "cabbage price" scenario due to population outflow and oversupply, leading to a market characterized by "price without market" [8] Shift in Market Dynamics - The introduction of affordable housing projects is expected to disrupt the commodity housing market, shifting the focus back to housing as a necessity rather than an investment vehicle [6] - The changing landscape suggests that housing will return to its primary function as a place to live, rather than a speculative asset [8] Investment Considerations - As housing becomes more accessible, new investment strategies may emerge, prompting individuals to consider alternatives such as stocks, mutual funds, or entrepreneurship [8]

纽约联储：预计今年全年房价将上涨3.3%，高于三月份的3%。 ...

智通财经5月8日电，英国4月Halifax季调后房价指数环比增长0.3%，预期下降0.1%。 ...