Core Viewpoint - The recent data on Guangzhou's housing market indicates a significant shift, with both new and second-hand home prices experiencing a notable decline, while transaction volumes show signs of recovery, suggesting a complex market dynamic [1][2][4][23]. Price Trends - Over the past year, Guangzhou's first-hand home prices have been in a slight decline, with a recent increase in the drop to -0.8% [2]. - Second-hand home prices also saw a similar trend, with a drop of -0.8% last month after a brief period of stabilization [4]. Transaction Volumes - In May, Guangzhou's new home transactions reached 5,827 units, marking a 20.6% increase from the previous month, the second-highest peak this year [6]. - For second-hand homes, 9,228 units were signed in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.73%, with total transactions for the first five months reaching 46,000 units, significantly higher than last year [9]. Market Dynamics - The data suggests that price adjustments have led to increased buyer acceptance, resulting in higher transaction volumes [12]. - The top-selling properties in Guangzhou now include several high-end and improved housing options, indicating a shift in buyer preferences [12][13]. Policy Changes - Recent policy changes in Guangzhou include tightening high plot ratio regulations and reintroducing measures to cancel purchase restrictions, sales limits, and price caps, aimed at stabilizing prices and boosting market confidence [15][21]. - The city is determined to prevent excessive price competition among new developments, which has been a significant factor in the ongoing price declines [18][20]. Market Outlook - Despite the ongoing price decline, the measures taken by Guangzhou are expected to stabilize the market and prevent further drastic price reductions, indicating a strategic approach to managing the housing market [24].

据经济日报文章，国家统计局数据显示，5月房地产市场总体平稳，房价同比降幅收窄，库存减少。6月 13日国务院常务会议强调对已供土地和在建项目进行摸底，优化政策以稳定预期、激活需求、优化供 给、化解风险，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。广州市等地已取消限购限售、降低贷款首付比例及利率。优 质住房供给增加，房企资金面改善，房地产融资协调显效，有助于稳房价及市场活跃度。会议提出构建 房地产发展新模式，推动市场平稳健康发展。随着中央有关财税、金融等政策的进一步优化统筹，以及 各地因城施策推动政策精准落地，房地产市场将进一步实现止跌回稳。 ...

（原标题：英国房价跌幅超过预期 5月份平均房价环比下降0.4%） 卫报6月6日报道，英国房价上月跌幅超出预期，季度跌幅创近一年新高，原因在于经济不确定性持 续影响房地产市场。5月，英国平均房价环比下降0.4%，降至29.6万英镑，远超市场经济学家此前预测 的0.1%跌幅。 Halifax周五公布的数据显示，过去四个月中，有三个月的房价出现下滑。5月的下跌是在4月小幅上 涨0.3%之后发生的。由于5月跌幅意外加大，房价的季度变化也下降了0.3%，为自去年6月以来的最大 季度跌幅。 她说："尽管家庭财务压力持续存在，经济前景依然不确定，但房地产市场表现出一定韧性。未来 走势将取决于利率下调的节奏、未来收入增长的力度以及整体通胀趋势。" 不过，衡量房地产市场健康状况的重要指标——新购房抵押贷款批准数量，4月已连续第三个月下 滑。英格兰银行的最新数据显示，净住宅抵押贷款批准量下降了3100宗，至60500宗，低于经济学家预 期。 英国税务与海关总署（HMRC）上周公布的数据显示，4月约完成64680宗房产交易，较3月的 177440宗大幅下降64%。 年增长率也大幅放缓至2.5%，低于此前预期的接近3%，并较4月的3 ...

| 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.17） | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 螺纹 | 2981 | 5 | 0.17% | 3100 | 119 | | 热卷 | 3093 | 4 | 0.13% | 3200 | 107 | 铁矿 | 699 | -0.5 | -0.07% | 720 | 21 | | 焦煤 | 789.5 | 5.5 | 0.70% | 910 | 120.5 | 焦炭 | 1365.5 | 13.5 | 1.00% | 1245 | -120.5 | | 市场概况 | 今日黑色系商品期货整体上涨企稳。螺纹收于2981元/吨，上涨0.17%；热卷 | | | | | | | | | | | | 主力合约收于3093元/吨，上涨0.13%；铁矿今日主力合约收于699元/吨；双 | 焦今天小幅收涨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场分析 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][9][33] Core Viewpoints - Sales area and amount have shown a continued decline, with the sales area in May decreasing by 3.3% year-on-year and the sales amount decreasing by 6% [5][11] - The decline in funds available to real estate companies has continued to expand, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% from January to May 2025 [6][20] - Real estate development investment has shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% from January to May 2025 [7][21] - Land transaction area growth has slowed, but transaction amounts have maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 34% in transaction amounts from January to May 2025 [8][26] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 353 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][11] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 3.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [5][11] Funding Sources - The funds available to real estate companies saw a significant decline, with a single-month decrease of 10.1% in May 2025, marking the largest drop of the year [6][20] - Personal mortgage loans decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, while domestic loans turned negative with a decrease of 1.7% [6][20] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 was down 10.7% year-on-year, with a single-month decrease of 12% in May [7][21] - New construction area decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, while the construction area showed a slight improvement [7][21] Land Transactions - The supply and transaction area of residential land in 100 major cities decreased by 14% year-on-year, while transaction amounts increased by 5% [8][26] - The average transaction premium rate in May was 7.4%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from April [8][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and well-structured land reserves, as well as top intermediary agencies benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions [9][33]

在您阅读以下内容之前，我诚挚邀请您点击页面上的"关注"按钮，这样您将能够第一时间接收到我们的新文章。此外，您也可以参与到文章的讨论和分享中 来，您的支持是我不断创作的动力源泉。为了提升文章的可读性，我可能会在细节上做些润色调整，敬请理智阅读，本文仅供参考。 文|妍妍 编辑|妍妍 "地产教父"王石的首次预见 王石，这个名字在中国房地产界几乎成为了"预言家"的代名词。他曾两度精准预判中国房地产市场的走向，每次的判断都让人惊叹不已、引发热议。如今， 他再次站出来，给出了未来房地产市场的新预言。尽管他在业内的判断积累了足够的信任，但这次的预言是否真的如他所言准确无误呢？我们将拭目以待。 房地产市场的起伏与变化始终牵动着无数人的心。2016年，中国楼市可谓是如火如荼，正处于一场前所未有的盛大狂欢之中。在那时，王石仍站在万科集团 的领导岗位上，凭借多年的行业经验，他洞察到了一些普通人难以觉察的市场隐忧。他深知，每个行业都有其自身的周期和发展规律，房地产也不例外。 在一次业内的高峰论坛上，王石提出了一个震撼业界的论断——中国房地产市场即将迎来重大转折。这一观点迅速引发了轩然大波，许多开发商和投资者对 此并不认同，甚至嗤之以 ...

金十数据整理：每日房地产行业动态汇总（2025-06-17） 1. 深圳南山筹集社会存量住房5000套。 2. 广州南沙首批房票发放，总额超5000万元。 3. 广州两宗住宅用地出让：成交额8.94亿元。 4. 杭州公积金个人账户可直付购房首付款。 5. 北京6月16日新房网签222套，二手房住宅成交609套。 6. 浙江省直公积金可直付首付款、房租。 7. 浙江衢州：推行多孩家庭改善性购房补贴，最高可申请补贴20万元。 8. 研究员：短期波动不会改变房地产市场稳定态势。 9. 温州推出购买二手住房提取住房公积金支付首付款政策。 10. 成都推出"房产超市"平台，首批近30家房企入驻。 11. 重庆优化住房公积金政策，提高灵活就业人员贷款额度及效率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a series of favorable policies aimed at stimulating demand and improving accessibility for potential homebuyers as 2024 approaches, with expectations for significant trends in 2025 [2] Group 1: Policy Changes - Most cities in China have lifted purchase restrictions, allowing more potential buyers to enter the market, except for core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [2] - Financial policies remain accommodative, with mortgage rates dropping to around 3.2%, and down payment ratios reduced from 30% to 15%, effectively lowering the barriers to homeownership [2] - The government has implemented tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers [2] Group 2: Market Trends for 2025 - The market is shifting towards the sale of completed homes, moving away from the pre-sale model, which will enhance buyer confidence and impose higher standards on developers regarding financial strength and project quality [4] - The second-hand housing market is facing significant challenges, with listing volumes in major cities like Shanghai, Chongqing, and Chengdu exceeding 150,000 units, leading to price reductions as sellers seek to close deals amid weak demand [4] - The government aims to provide 6 million units of affordable housing over the next five years, which is expected to ease housing pressure for low-income groups and divert some demand from the commercial housing market [4] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Current mortgage rates are in the range of 3.2% to 3.5%, with predictions that they may drop below 3% in 2025 to stimulate demand amid a declining market [6] - The overall trend for housing prices is expected to be "stable with a downward bias," as the market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with significant price drops observed in cities like Zhengzhou and Tianjin [8] - For instance, in Shanghai, prices have decreased from nearly 100,000 yuan per square meter to approximately 65,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a decline of over 30% [8]

近日，多地发布楼市新政。 浙江衢州发布稳楼市新政提出，对符合条件的购房人给予2万元/套的团购购房补贴；多孩家庭改善性购房补贴 最高20万元；智慧新城购房给予600元/㎡的购房消费券补贴，单套最高10万元。 湖南衡阳出台住房公积金新政，包括在全省首次推出缴存职工在衡阳市购买与所购住房同一小区车库（位）， 可提取住房公积金；提高贷款额度；取消贷款次数限制等。 值得注意的是，日前召开的国务院常务会议提出，要更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。国家统计局新闻发言 人付凌晖6月16日在"5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会"上表示，下阶段，要积极主动适应房地产市场供求关 系发生重大变化的现实，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释放。 衢州发布稳楼市新政 日前，"衢州发布"微信公众号发布了《关于进一步促进房地产市场平稳健康发展若干措施的通知》。 衡阳发布住房公积金新政 近日，衡阳市发布《关于进一步优化调整住房公积金政策的通知》，明确了一系列惠民举措。 其中提出，提高贷款额度，缴存职工个人或夫妻双方正常缴存住房公积金，购买自住住房申请住房公积金贷款 的，最高贷款额度由80万元提高至90万元；对二孩且子女未成年家庭、大专及以上学历毕业生毕业3 ...

与此同时，5月份南京市二手房市场保持较高热度。南京市二手房网签面积112.75万平方米，同比增长 22.0%；其中二手住宅交易成交面积103.12万平方米，同比增长20.1%。从各区看，12个区二手住宅成交 均同比增长，其中六合区增幅超过50%，玄武区、鼓楼区、秦淮区、高淳区、江宁区、栖霞区增幅超过 20%，其他5个区保持平稳增长。从面积段看，60-90平方米为全市二手住宅成交主力户型，占全市总成 交量的39.1%。120-140平方米及140平方米以上大户型成交房源仍集中在江宁、江北新区、建邺、鼓楼 等区。 新京报贝壳财经讯 6月16日，"南京房地产业协会"官微披露，今年5月，南京市商品房上市25个项目， 面积25.19万平方米，较"银四"下降30.3%。其中：商品住宅项目16个，上市1329套、18.21万平方米；商 业办公上市项目4个、0.59万平方米；车位储藏室上市项目7个、6.39万平方米。 与此同时，上述商品住宅上市项目主要集中在雨花台区、江宁区和鼓楼区，合计上市规模占全市总上市 量的65.5%。上市的商品住宅项目中，市场关注度较高的项目包括玄武区山和月府、鼓楼区珑樾府、江 宁区嘉和华府、茂棠名邸 ...