2025.05. 19 分析人士指出，中美关税政策调整落地叠加传统运输旺季临近，港口货主集中启动"抢运"操作，这 些因素都成为推动板块持续大涨的核心驱动力，但需警惕部分公司因短期涨幅过大引发的风险提示。 信达证券分析，当前为欧美传统运输旺季开启，货主企业出于降低关税成本和赶工交货的双重考虑， 短期内亚欧、跨太平洋航线货量或出现脉冲式增长。 多家公司提示风险 尽管板块热度高涨，部分公司已发布风险提示公告。 南京港5月19日发布了股票交易异常波动公告，为近一周内第二次公告股价波动。 根据两次公告，南京港在5月13日～5月16日连续4个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过40%，但 近期公司经营情况及内外部经营环境未发生重大变化，也不存在应披露而未披露的重大事项等。 本文字数：1841，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 5月19日，港口航运股再度走强，宁波海运(600798.SH)、南京港(002040.SZ)、连云港 (601008.SH)开盘涨停，均斩获5连板。截至收盘，珠海港(000507.SZ)、宁波港(601018.SH)、 厦门港务(000905.SZ)等多股跟随涨停。 与此同时，集运期货市场同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of port and shipping stocks driven by policy adjustments and the upcoming traditional shipping peak season, leading to a surge in stock prices and shipping indices [1][4] - The shipping index (European line) futures main contract rose to 2387 points, with a weekly increase of approximately 54% [1] - Analysts suggest that the adjustment of US-China tariff policies and the approach of the traditional shipping peak season are key drivers for the surge in the sector, with expectations of a pulse-like increase in cargo volume on Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes [1][4] Group 2 - Despite the sector's strong performance, several companies have issued risk warnings due to significant stock price fluctuations, with Nanjing Port announcing a cumulative price deviation of over 40% in just four trading days [2] - Lianyungang also issued multiple announcements regarding abnormal stock price fluctuations, reporting a 48.01% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q1 2025 [2][3] - Ningbo Shipping reported a significant drop in net profit for 2024, down 80.2% year-on-year, and warned investors about trading risks [3] Group 3 - The shipping and port sector has seen a strong market trend since May 14, with speculation that the tariff pause may lead to increased demand for shipping services [4] - Some analysts predict that the "rush to ship" phenomenon could drive freight rates to new highs in June, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [4][5] - Current freight rates remain weak, with the Shanghai shipping exchange reporting a slight decline in rates for exports to Europe, indicating potential challenges ahead for the industry [5]

基本面： 周一（5月19日）亚盘时段，现货黄金跳空高开后继续震荡，盘中最高再次测试3250一线压力后徘徊，目前交投于3220美元附近。周五（5月16日）金价周五 一度大跌超过2%，致周线下跌近4%，受累于贸易协议带来的风险偏好上升，创下去年11月以来最糟糕的一周。贸易战的缓解使整个市场的风险偏好回升。 这种转变促使期货交易商获利了结，尤其是在黄金市场，并引发了长达一周的结清仓位潮。 上周早些时候，两大经济体暂停贸易战90天，同时双方将制定结束针锋相对的贸易战的细节。因此，华尔街三大股指实现周线上涨，这主要是由于在经历了 长期的不确定性之后，投资者的风险偏好不断增强。与此同时，美国近期通胀数据放缓，加上经济数据弱于预期，巩固了美联储今年将进一步降息的预期。 上周公布的4月份美国消费者通胀率的上升低于预期，消费者价格指数(CPI)4月份上涨了0.2%，使全年涨幅从2.4%降至2.3%。这份报告是个 "好消息"。"对大 多数消费者和企业来说，2025年的通胀应该是可控的。市场预计美联储今年将降息两次，从9月份开始。预计美联储今年将降息56个基点，低于4月份超过 100个基点的预期，当时对特朗普关税影响的担忧最为严重 ...

•美联储计划未来几年减员10% •鲍威尔：美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架 •中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议 转自：新华财经 •美联储官员再次强调"不急于降息" •欧洲央行监管机构要求欧元区部分银行评估美元需求的压力情景 •墨西哥央行将基准利率下调50个基点至8.5% 【全球央行动态】 •中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议，规模为1900亿元人民币／1570亿巴西雷亚尔，协议有效 期五年，经双方同意可以展期。 •据美国消费者新闻与商业频道等多家媒体报道，美联储计划在未来几年将员工数量消减10%，其中一 个方法是向员工提供自愿辞职、延期离岗的计划，适用于那些截至2027年底完全符合退休条件的员工。 •美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储正在考虑调整货币政策指导框架的核心内容，以应对2020年疫情后通 胀和利率前景的重大变化。他指出，美国可能进入供应冲击更频繁、通胀更不稳定的时期，这对经济和 央行构成艰巨挑战。而随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高。鲍威尔预测，美国4月PCE同 比将上涨2.2%左右。 •美联储副主席杰斐逊指出，关税及不确定性可能抑制经济增长并推高通胀，但货币政策已准备好根据 需要调整； ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 周专题： 4 月清洁电器增长强劲，中美同步大幅降低双边 关税 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题： 4 月清洁电器景气延续，量价齐升。根据奥维云网数据， 2025 年 4 月扫地机线上销额 10 亿元，同比+81%，线上销量 30 万台，同比+74%，线上均价 3340 元/台，同比+3.5%； 2025 年 4 月洗地机线上销额 6.9 亿元，同比+82%，线上销量 34 万台，同比+82%，线上均价 2043 元/台，同比+0.1%。 分品牌来看，科沃斯、石头表现亮眼，份额稳居前列。根据 奥维云网数据，2025 年 4 月，科沃斯、石头扫地机线上销额 分别同比+98%、+72%，市占率分别为 25%、26%；添可、石头 洗地机线上销额分别同比+39%、+1065%，市占率分别为 31%、19%。 北京时间 5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》 （下称《联合声明》）公布。根据《联合声明》，中美双方 承诺将于 2025 年 5 月 ...

Group 1 - After the latest adjustments in China-US tariff policies, many foreign trade companies have resumed their supply to the US market and restarted production and promotion of export products [1][7] - In Longgang, Zhejiang, a surge in foreign trade has been observed with numerous US orders returning, leading to a busy production environment in packaging companies [3] - A high-tech company focused on food packaging is currently rushing to fulfill a batch of orders worth nearly $200,000 for the US market [5] Group 2 - Following the announcement of reduced tariffs, many foreign trade companies in Xiamen, Fujian, received urgent order requests from US clients [7] - A packaging technology company in Zhejiang has prioritized US orders, aiming for rapid delivery within 90 days and plans to establish subsidiaries in Mexico and Europe to adapt to tariff measures [8] - A shoe company reported that over 60% of its overseas business comes from the US, and after the tariff adjustments, it has started shipping previously accumulated inventory and received numerous new orders [10][11] Group 3 - A textile export company in Xiamen is actively shipping out previously accumulated inventory worth 10 million yuan and has received new orders totaling $2.7 million [13] - The general manager of a textile import-export company in Fujian emphasized the need to diversify by developing markets in other countries and launching a domestic brand this year [15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a gap down on Monday and continued to decline, showing alternating bearish and bullish patterns, ultimately closing the week with a bearish candle featuring a long lower shadow [1] - U.S. April CPI data showed a mild performance, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations and a stronger dollar, which pressured gold prices. The April PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, while retail sales growth dropped significantly from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, indicating increased economic slowdown pressures [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.435%, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 75.4% probability for a September cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with mutual tariff cancellations, has temporarily alleviated trade friction, impacting market sentiment [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged challenges facing the U.S. economy and the Fed, indicating potential volatility in future inflation. Although he did not elaborate on rate cut expectations, the recent CPI data has intensified pressure on the Fed to lower rates [5] - Wall Street's major banks have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut due to easing trade tensions, complicating the impact on gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a corrective phase, having encountered strong resistance at the 3500 level. The recent price action suggests that gold may have entered a fourth wave adjustment structure [9] - A breakdown below the 3202 support level confirmed the start of a C-wave decline, with a potential short-term rebound observed near the 3120 level. The focus will be on whether gold can stabilize above 3120 to initiate a rebound [11][12]

谭方强：下个月我会再去美国那边，再新建一个海外仓。应对的时候，我们能有个缓冲的地带。 货量上升，航空运力紧张，本周，空运价格已经有小幅上涨，后期随着发货量的进一步恢复，价格 还有上涨空间。为了应对舱位紧张，不少货运公司提前预订了下周甚至更远的舱位。 福永街道物流协会会长黄晓斌：货量增加了30%到40%，路上的车现在明显多了很多。预计1到2 周，后面货量会更大、会更忙，现在有的货还在生产之中。 谭方强的企业也是福永街道4300多家跨境物流企业之一，这两天，客户要求尽快出货的电话没有停 过。 谭方强：接近干了一个通宵，大家都没有停下来过，我们整个团队处理着客户新增的这些订单。 仓库里，工作人员手上都攥着长长的单号标，逐一贴上货箱后，一箱箱货物整装待发。直线上升的 发货量让谭方强放下了心中的石头，但美国滥施关税带来的影响让他思考如何降低企业风险。 央广网北京5月17日消息（记者何俊儒 夏美子）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》 报道，中美关税政策调整后，中国多家外贸企业重启了美国市场供应，恢复对美外贸出口产品的生产推 广，跨境物流企业订单激增、发货忙碌。广东深圳宝安区的福围社区，这几天格外热闹，大批货物正 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a complex situation influenced by weak U.S. economic data, rising recession risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - U.S. economic indicators for April showed a significant decline, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 0.5%, retail sales growth dropping from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4% [1] - The gold price has broken below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, with a potential downward target of around $2900 per ounce, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the recent price movements are characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with a significant resistance level at $3500 per ounce [2] - The current price rebound around $3160 is viewed as a short-term opportunity, with specific trading strategies recommended for both buying on dips and selling on rebounds [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the import price index, as well as geopolitical developments related to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant consensus reached between China and the United States regarding tariff adjustments, which is expected to positively impact bilateral trade and stimulate economic growth for both nations [1][3][4] - The adjustment of tariffs is seen as a crucial step not only for China and the U.S. but also for global economic stability, as it may influence other countries, including vulnerable economies [3][6] - Canada's response to the U.S.-China agreement indicates a potential shift in its trade policy towards China, suggesting that Canada may seek dialogue to resolve trade issues [4][6][9] Group 2 - The articles emphasize that the trade policy adjustments between China and the U.S. could have a ripple effect on international trade dynamics, necessitating Canada to reassess its trade stance and approach towards China [6][8] - The successful negotiations between China and the U.S. are framed as a model for other nations, encouraging a rational and long-term perspective in trade policy formulation [3][9] - The overall context suggests that the adjustments in trade relations are not merely bilateral events but are interconnected within the framework of global economic interdependence, highlighting the importance of cooperation and dialogue among nations [8][9]