Group 1 - The Eurozone Stoxx 50 index futures rose by 1.1% after the holiday [1]

欧洲STOXX 600指数初步收涨0.29%，报526.62点，4月份累计下跌大约1.4%。 欧元区STOXX 50指数初步收跌0.10%，报5156.92点，4月份累跌约1.7%。 富时泛欧绩优300指数初步收涨0.26%，报2089.68点。 ...

德商银行：欧元区经济增长势头可能转瞬即逝 金十数据4月30日讯，德商银行经济学家Vincent Stamer表示，欧元区经济在2025年初出现的明显令人印 象深刻的增长不太可能持续下去。周三公布的数据显示，欧元区20国今年前三个月的GDP总体增长 0.4%，高于2024年第四季度的0.2%。但诸如爱尔兰国内生产总值（GDP）因制药行业的关税先行而大 幅增长，以及库存增加可能导致未来产量下降等一次性因素，意味着欧元区在接下来的几个季度不太可 能保持这种增长速度。美国的关税将对出口造成压力。总体而言，我们预计2025年欧元区经济的年增长 率仅为0.7%。 ...

凯投宏观：关税对欧元区经济的影响将加剧 金十数据4月29日讯，凯投宏观分析师Franziska Palmas表示，欧元区经济信心指数的下跌表明，美国关 税在4月份对经济活动造成了一定程度的打击，而此前因抢在关税实施前采购而带来的短期提振可能正 在消退。欧元区4月经济景气指数95.2降至93.6，弱于预期。工业和服务业指数双双下滑，消费者信心大 幅下降。还有更多迹象表明，随着招聘意愿进一步下降，就业市场正在放缓，这与就业停滞一致。由于 关税拖累将加剧，我们预计未来6个月欧元区GDP将几乎不会增长。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing potential inflationary pressures in the Eurozone due to U.S. trade tariffs, which may hinder global economic expansion [1] - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone indicated that these tariffs could lead to a deflationary effect in the Eurozone in the short to medium term [1] - The unexpected appreciation of the Euro following the U.S. tariffs has surprised ECB policymakers, who initially anticipated a depreciation that would increase import costs [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rose to 2.9% in March, up from 2.6% in February, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, the market anticipates further reductions in borrowing costs by the ECB, with expectations of two to three additional cuts this year [2] - Economists from major banks predict that the ECB may lower the deposit facility rate to at least 1.5% to stimulate demand [2] Group 3 - The volatility in U.S. tariffs has caused market turmoil, leading investors to seek alternatives to U.S. assets [3] - Cipollone noted that the recent performance of U.S. financial markets suggests they are not serving their usual role as a safe haven, which could have significant implications for capital flows and the international financial system [3] - The long-term effects of higher tariffs may undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar's dominance in international trade and finance, potentially leading to a more multipolar currency system [3]

Core Insights - The short-term effects of tariffs may be anti-inflationary [1] - The Eurozone benefits from a flow of safe-haven funds [1] - Tariffs could lead to a persistent reduction in global economic growth [1]

欧洲央行执委奇波洛内：关税可能对欧元区产生抑制通胀的作用。 ...

欧洲STOXX 600指数初步收涨0.65%，报523.82点。 欧元区STOXX 50指数初步收涨0.47%，报5178.16点。 富时泛欧绩优300指数初步收涨0.62%，报2080.17点。 ...

欧洲央行管委雷恩：关税在欧元区的影响具有双重性。 ...