伊以冲突加剧，油价大涨！中东石油流向何方？一图看懂全球石油产业链与出口格局！ 相关链接 金十期货热图 ...

Group 1 - Mexico's gold production totaled 6,078 kilograms, copper production reached 37,077 tons, and silver production was 350,039 kilograms in April [1] - Iran's crude oil exports surged to approximately 1.95 million barrels per day from June 1 to June 20 [1] - Russia is prepared to participate in oil projects in Indonesian waters and increase crude oil and LNG supplies to Indonesia [1] Group 2 - Saudi Energy Minister stated that they will only respond to reality regarding potential losses in Iranian oil supply [1] - Japan's Prime Minister announced measures to ensure gasoline prices do not exceed 175 yen per liter, with new gasoline measures to meet expected demand surge in July and August [1] - Citigroup forecasts that if conflicts lead to disruptions in Iranian oil exports, oil prices could rise to $75-78 per barrel, and if supply disruptions reach 3 million barrels per day, prices could hit $90 [1] Group 3 - JPMorgan indicated that in extreme scenarios, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could potentially soar to $120-130 per barrel [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak emphasized the need for a stable oil market and that OPEC+ should smoothly execute its plans [2] - The Secretary-General of OPEC noted that oil demand continues to grow [3]

花旗：伊朗石油出口中断可能对油价的影响小于预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Citigroup estimates a disruption of 1.1 million barrels per day in Iranian oil supply could lead to Brent crude oil prices ranging between $75 and $78 per barrel [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The article highlights key economic data and events to be monitored on June 20, 2025, including various consumer confidence indices and retail sales figures [1] - Key Point 2: Important announcements include speeches from Russian President Putin and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, which may influence market sentiment [1] - Key Point 3: The article lists specific times for the release of economic indicators such as the UK Gfk Consumer Confidence Index and the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The article emphasizes the significance of the Chinese one-year loan market quotation rate to be released on June 20, which could impact lending rates and economic activity [1] - Key Point 2: The German Producer Price Index (PPI) and UK retail sales figures are also highlighted as critical indicators for assessing economic health in Europe [1] - Key Point 3: The article notes the scheduled release of the Eurozone consumer confidence index, which is crucial for understanding consumer sentiment in the region [1]

金十数据整理：6月19日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 1. 习近平同俄罗斯总统普京通电话，重点就中东局势交换意见。 2. 商务部：将依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查。 3. 金融监管总局人身险司向业内发文，分红险分红水平不得"内卷式"竞争。 4. 知情人士：光伏三季度"减产令"升级，开工率环降10%、低价销售将审计核查。 5. 外交部：1600余名中国公民已从伊朗安全撤离，数百名中国公民从以色列撤离。 6. 商务部回应中欧经贸关系：中方高度重视中欧经贸关系，一直与欧方保持各层级的密切沟通。 11. 以色列国防军：发现伊朗再次发射弹道导弹。据报道，伊朗在最新一轮导弹袭击中发射了超过10枚 导弹。 国内新闻： 7. 三部门召开加强新能源汽车安全管理工作视频会，会议要求，不搞"内卷式"竞争，绝不能偷工减料、 以次充好。 国际新闻： 8. 英国央行将政策利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期，投票比例显示内部分歧加大。交易员提高对 英国央行8月降息的押注，同时预计央行今年还会再降息50个基点。 9. 英国金融时报：欧盟正推动与美国达成英国式的贸易协议。另据消息人士表示，欧洲官员越来越愿意 接受10%的对等关税基准 ...

俄罗斯几乎没能受益于国际原油价格近期的上涨，因为俄罗斯卢布汇率上升。 随着以色列与伊朗最新一轮冲突推高国际油价，Argus Media Ltd.数据显示，俄罗斯Urals石油价格在6月 13日涨穿60美元/桶。这意味着，2025年以来，（俄罗斯石油出口销售收入）仅仅收复了10%的失地。 彭博根据俄罗斯央行官方汇率测算得出一个结论，俄罗斯石油出口行业那天（前述6月13日）每出口一 桶能收入4957卢布，相比2025年年初的水平低了大约30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact global oil prices, with predictions suggesting prices may exceed $100 per barrel, potentially reaching $120-$130 under severe geopolitical conditions [1][5]. Group 1: Iran's Position and Threats - A senior Iranian lawmaker stated that Iran could retaliate against enemies by closing the Strait of Hormuz, although another lawmaker indicated this would only occur if Iran's core interests were threatened [1][2]. - The Iranian parliament's National Security Committee member mentioned that Iran has various ways to respond to threats, with the closure of the Strait being a significant option [1]. - The closure of the Strait is seen as a legitimate response if the U.S. formally supports Israel in military actions against Iran [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Approximately 25% of the world's daily oil consumption, around 18 million barrels, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical shipping route for oil and gas [2]. - Clarkson's data indicates that 11% of global maritime trade transits through the Strait, including 34% of seaborne crude oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [3]. - The economic risks associated with closing the Strait are high for Iran, as its economy heavily relies on oil exports, and such a move could isolate Iran from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait is closed, oil prices could surge to the $120-$130 range, with Brent crude futures already rising above $78 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions [5]. - Analysts generally view the complete closure of the Strait as a low-probability event, with a more likely scenario being a reduction in Iranian oil exports rather than a total blockade [3].

金十数据6月19日讯，印度石油部长Hardeep Puri周四表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡的船舶交通被封锁，印度 正准备从波斯湾以外采购原油，并削减自己的成品油出口。全球约四分之一的石油贸易要经过这条关键 水道。一些市场观察人士担心，与长期对手以色列陷入冲突的伊朗可能会选择袭击途经霍尔木兹海峡的 油轮，或者完全关闭霍尔木兹海峡。Puri表示 ："我们有足够的原油和成品油库存。我们有足够多样化 的原油供应，即使出现中断，我们也可以从其他来源获得。" 若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，印度可能减少石油产品出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Secretary General of OPEC stated that oil demand continues to grow, indicating a positive outlook for the oil industry [1] Industry Summary - Oil demand is projected to increase, suggesting a robust market environment for oil producers [1] - The ongoing growth in oil demand may lead to higher prices and increased investment opportunities within the sector [1]